The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia has kept the forecast regarding the annual indexation of tariffs for electricity transmission for the population by 5% in 2020-2023.

"In order to reduce the volume of cross-subsidies in the power grid complex, the indexation of tariffs for the transmission of electricity to the population on average in Russia will remain at the level of 5% annually," the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2021 and for the planning period of 2022 and 2023 ...

It also follows from the document that regulated tariffs for electricity for the population will grow at the same rate.

At the same time, the growth of regulated tariffs of grid organizations for consumers, except for the population, on average in Russia during this period will be no more than 3% every year.

The department is of the opinion that the dynamics of unregulated prices for end consumers, except for the population, in the retail market in 2020 will average 5.6%.

It is expected that in the period from 2021 to 2023 the price dynamics “will not exceed the parameters of target inflation set in the scenario conditions and will average from 2.9% to 3.5%”.

Experts note that in Russia such tariffs are indexed to the inflation rate.

As Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian government, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, said in an interview with RT, this is a fixed practice that has already existed in this form for many years.

Yushkov noted that in relation to the periods of 2022 and 2023, we can only talk about preliminary data.

“They will be specified next year anyway.

Next year it will be clear what inflation rate is forecasted, accordingly, the tariff will be predicted for the inflation rate, probably in the coming years this system will be in the power industry: the inflation rate plus one percent, this percentage will go to pay for all kinds of modernization, ”the expert said.

Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge of the Higher School of Economics, believes that the growth indicated in the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is indicated with a margin.

“The growth of tariffs for electricity and, in principle, housing and communal services in our country, according to the decree, should not exceed the inflation rate, so 5% is even with a margin of growth ... According to the Central Bank and according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, inflation will be in the next and in a year somewhere in the region of 4.25% -4.5%, "Ostapkovich said in an interview with RT.

In his opinion, the figure of 5% is "reasonable", provided that the income of the population grows.

In addition, Ostapkovich pointed to the impact of tariffs on the modernization of enterprises.

“Any enterprises should develop, and they develop in the conditions of very old funds of housing and communal services and electric power industry.

Therefore, they need renewal, and renewal is needed, of course, also due to the increase in tariffs, ”the expert concluded.

Electricity consumption in Russia

According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in Russia, electricity consumption by the end of 2020 will decrease by 3.6% against the background of last year's warm winter and restrictions associated with the coronavirus infection COVID-19.

“In 2020, the decrease in electricity generation was already influenced by the warm winter of the 2019-2020 season and the decrease in demand during the restrictive measures introduced ... Electricity production in 2020 is estimated at 1,091.8 billion kWh (-4.2% ), electricity consumption - 1,077.7 billion kWh (-3.6%), ”the document says.

According to the forecast, in 2021 the volume of electricity production will grow by 3.7% in annual terms, in 2022 - by 1.4%, and in 2023 - by 1.6%.

In addition, by 2023, electricity consumption on the domestic market is expected to increase by 3.1% compared to 2019, to 1,152.6 billion kWh.

It is noted that in the medium term, the volume of electricity production will continue to be determined by the growth rates of the Russian economy.

  • Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak

  • RIA News

  • © Alexey Druzhinin

In July, the head of the Ministry of Energy Alexander Novak spoke about the fall in demand for electricity in Russia.

According to him, "in the power industry, the reduction in consumption was not as sensitive as in the oil and gas sector."

As the minister explained, "the demand decreased to a maximum of 9-10%, today this demand has already been partially restored."

“And we even see that in the last two or three weeks it is higher than last year, the demand for electricity.

Therefore, we hope that there will be a market recovery here by the end of the year, ”Novak said.