To address the problem of the potential vacuum

"NATO" is heading to lead the international coalition in Iraq instead of Washington

  • The international coalition is facing difficulties in filling the void after the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.

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  • US forces are heading to withdraw from Iraq in light of fears of the return of "ISIS".

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The visit of the Iraqi Foreign Minister, Fuad Hussein, to Brussels, on September 16, and his meeting with the Secretary-General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Jens Stoltenberg, within the framework of Iraq and NATO completing the document of supplementary arrangements for the work of the NATO mission in Iraq, or in the form of The most accurate procedural framework for the leadership transition process in the international coalition for the war on "ISIS" in Iraq, based on the desire of the US administration, which was announced early this year, as a compromise solution to address the problem of the potential vacuum in light of Washington's tendency to reduce its military presence in Iraq, whether In the context of reducing the number of its forces in the Middle East, or as a way out of the pressures it is facing with the current Iraqi government from the local political forces, especially those close to Tehran.

In terms of timing, the course of arrangements for the "NATO" mission in Iraq comes less than a month after the visit of the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, to Washington, and the holding of the second round of the strategic dialogue between the two countries, which concluded with an emphasis on the nature of strategic relations in With regard to the arrangements for the security and defense files, which are at an advanced level in the priorities of those relations, despite the agreement to reduce the number of American forces present in Iraq (5,500 soldiers), to less than half this number within the coming period, and before the elections Prospective American.

The United States of America and the Iraqi government share, according to estimates issued by the decision-making circles in the two countries, fears of the terrorist organization "ISIS" reviving its networks in Iraq again, especially since these estimates already confirm the presence of indications that the organization still has effectiveness and the ability to weave these networks. And the threat of the situation in Iraq is no less than what it was in the past, which was the main motive for the formation of the international coalition, and this part raises the question of the nature of the tasks that are referred to, whether by "NATO" or the United States of America regarding the remaining number of its forces. In Iraq, which is likely to be in the range of 2000 soldiers, as the NATO statement issued to comment on the visit of the Iraqi Foreign Minister, as well as the statement of the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, carries references to the logistical aspects of training operations, support for counter-terrorism operations, as well as the section on civil relations. Military.

Also, Washington is also referring to the same goals. The US ambassador to Baghdad, Matthew Toller, last weekend, repeated US statements that are in the same direction, which is that the goal of the US presence is to combat ISIS, and that the United States of America is working. On reducing its military presence, but the US ambassador focused in his statements on "fighting ISIS" more than referring to the logistical aspect.

Tactical variant

It is conceivable that changing the flag of the American leadership of the coalition and replacing it with the flag of "NATO" is a tactical variable more than a strategic one, as it achieves American goals in the first place, including reducing the number of American forces in exchange for an increase in the number of "NATO" forces.

This week, an increase in the level of European participation was announced, which fulfills the American desire to share the burden of combating terrorism in both Iraq and Syria, as well as contributing to a change in the nature of the forces from the combat nature to the logistical character of counter-terrorism operations, which is a more formal variable. Since it is a qualitative variable, the experiences of "NATO" participation in the combat operations in Iraq during the past period were not limited to this aspect, just as it is not possible to clearly distinguish between the leadership of "NATO" and the American leadership. In the end, the United States of America remains the main force in the leadership of "NATO", and therefore it cannot be concluded that there is a change in the nature of the missions in a way that differentiates from what they were in the past.

But the main motive for this variable remains, is the reduction of the US-Iranian armed clash in Iraq, after the killing of the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani, at the beginning of this year, which constituted a qualitative shift in the path of collision on the two sides, followed by the special political clash By continuing Washington's strategy of maximum pressure on Iran in the file of sanctions and armaments.

Despite the inability to extend the arms embargo resolution in the Security Council, Washington is working to adopt other mechanisms to continue the same approach, which is not separated from the activation of the "Snapback" mechanism, on September 20.

Side targets

It is clear that there is a consensus between the American and Iraqi administrations, at the current stage.

Most likely, the military commanders in Iraq realize that ending the US military presence will reflect on the state’s ability to deal with threats, and there are local estimates indicating that there is a demand for the survival of US forces in the future, as the experience of the US military training program for sustainable Iraqi forces, over the course of The past two decades, reveals the difficulty of the absence of the US military role in the field, in the arena that is constantly witnessing changes in the cycle of ongoing security threats.

In addition, a number of NATO partners had reservations about some US operations in Iraq, especially the assassination of Soleimani, in light of the reaction of the Iraqi militias loyal to Iran to that strike, targeting bases and coalition forces. Western reports revealed that Canada and some European countries have expressed a desire to reduce their role in participating in "NATO" operations in Iraq because of the US’s unilateral decision in those operations that have repercussions on everyone. Consequently, the process of rotating the leadership within the alliance under the banner of "NATO" may address such problems.

New mechanisms

Most likely, the reduction of the US military presence at the level of the size of the force will be compensated by other alternatives, to achieve the military objectives required in the context of the war on terror, as there is a tendency to increase the qualitative capabilities in counter-terrorism operations, including unmanned aerial vehicles (drones), for example, In Iraq, which was indicated by several American and European estimates, to deal with the new pattern that is closer to guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan, where ISIS tended to take mountainous and rugged areas as a haven in Iraq, in a way that would also relieve pressure on the Iraqi forces, And the existing coalition forces, which have been subjected to attacks in recent months, were the most prominent of which was planting IEDs on the roads.

Likewise, the presence of military advisors who specialize in the bases of the coalition, and the bases that were occupied by the American forces and which will be handed over to the Iraqi forces, will allow the implementation of the "leadership from behind" model in a flexible manner.

Multiple crises

It is believed that Washington faced, this year in Iraq, multiple crises, and although there is a desire to reduce the American presence in general, this imposes another problem, especially the expansion of Tehran, which is hostile on the one hand, and allowing a large margin for the return of "ISIS" on the other hand, Consequently, shifting the helm of command to "NATO" represents a practical solution to deal with most of these problems, but at the same time it may turn into a new problem, if the actual goal of it is to make a tactical change in the operational nature.

The track of the arrangements for the "NATO" mission in Iraq comes less than a month after the visit of the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, to Washington, and the holding of the second round of strategic dialogue between the two countries, which concluded with an emphasis on the nature of strategic relations, with regard to special arrangements. Security and defense files.

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