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24 September 2020 An increase of 10.9% (10,907 compared to 9,837) in new cases of coronavirus in Italy, an increase of 14.5% (45,489 vs 39,712) in currently positive cases and an increase of 17.2% in hospitalized patients with symptoms (2,604 vs 2,222) and those in intensive care by 38% (239 vs 201).

Strong increase, + 50%, of deaths (105 vs 70), after the substantial stability recorded last week.

Cases tested +15.312 (+ 4.1%), total swabs: +52.304 (+ 9%).

These are the data of the independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation in the week 16-22 September, compared to the previous one.



"In the last week - says Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Gimbe Foundation - the increase in new cases dates back, as a result of the increase in both the cases tested and the positive / cases tested ratio. The constant growth of patients hospitalized with symptoms and those in intensive care ".



As part of an endemic circulation of the virus, the increase in outbreaks determines the progressive growth of new weekly cases.

From 1,408 new cases in the week of 15-21 July we passed to 10,907 in the week of 16-22 September, with an increase in the positive / case ratio tested from 0.8% to 2.8%, albeit with wide regional variability: from 1 , 1% of Basilicata to 6.5% of Liguria.

The progressive increase in currently positive cases is also reflected in the increase in hospitalizations: in 2 months the patients hospitalized with symptoms increased from 732 to 2,604 and those in intensive care from 49 to 239. 



"Fortunately - explains Cartabellotta - the percentage composition of currently positive cases remains constant: on average 93-94% are asymptomatic / oligosymptomatic; patients hospitalized with symptoms represent 5-6% of the total and those in intensive care 0.5%, even if with significant regional differences " .



The percentage of hospitalized patients with symptoms on active cases ranges from 2.4% in the Autonomous Province of Trento to 9.7% in Liguria;

the percentage of those in intensive care from 0% in the Autonomous Province of Trento and Valle D'Aosta to 1.2% in Sardinia.

In the week of 16-22 September about 85% of patients hospitalized with symptoms are concentrated in Lazio (482), Campania (360), Lombardy (294), Sicily (224), Puglia (204), Emilia-Romagna (185) , Piedmont (164), Liguria (148) and Veneto (141).

82.8% of patients in intensive care are distributed in 9 Regions: Lombardy (34), Lazio (31), Campania (23), Emilia-Romagna (22), Tuscany (21), Sardinia (21), Liguria (17), Sicily (15) and Veneto (14).   



"If on the one hand these are numbers that at the moment do not generate any overload of hospital services - the President points out - on the other hand we must not underestimate the constantly increasing trend that requires keeping the guard very high, especially in some Regions".



Hospitalization rates per 100,000 inhabitants above the national average (4.7) are in Liguria (10.6), Lazio (8.7), Sardinia (7.1), Campania (6.6), Puglia (5, 3) and Sicily (4.8).

For 8 consecutive weeks the numbers have confirmed the constant growth of the epidemic curve and hospitalizations, and at the moment there are many variables that do not allow us to hypothesize any decline: from the reopening of schools to the increase in the circulation of the virus in the winter season;

from the continuous increase in cases in countries with no entry restrictions in Italy, to the coexistence between coronavirus and seasonal flu;

from living indoors and on more crowded public transport, to the breezy reopening of the stadiums.



"If it is true that compared to other European countries - concludes Cartabellotta - we still maintain a significant advantage thanks to a more timely, intense and prolonged lockdown and more gradual reopenings, it is not the case to rest on our laurels, but we must anticipate the coronavirus to contain the second wave and avoid overloading the health system ".