Instead of being lined with flag-waving people, the streets of the capital were completely empty today.

The streets had, of course, been emptied so that Lukashenko's march to the ceremony would not be disrupted by thousands of people protesting against the August 9 election fraud.

It's not just a day of convincing victory now that I have been sworn in as president, Lukashenko said.

We also show that we defend our values, our peaceful life, our sovereignty and our independence.

The statement sounds rather hollow after Lukashenko's public crawling in front of Russian President Putin in Sochi last week, where he said he obviously asks his "big brother" for help when he has problems.

His future is decided in Moscow

That Lukashenko is hanging on the ropes is obvious.

And it is almost as obvious that it is not in Minsk but in Moscow that his future is decided.

President Putin and President Lukashenko have never drawn evenly.

Lukashenko understands that it is only thanks to Putin that he can cling to power.

But he also knows that the Kremlin does not yet have a good alternative.

So for a while he will probably be safe.

The Kremlin's problem is that it is difficult to find a successor who is loyal to Russia, but who is also accepted by the Belarusians.

My guess is that Lukashenko will be gone within a year, but then Belarus will not get democracy but a kind of pretend democracy under the supervision of Moscow.