Trump "empties Iranian nuclear deals of their substance"

President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

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• After withdrawing the United States from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, shortly after his election, Donald Trump decided to unilaterally reinstate the UN sanctions that existed before 2015.

• Once again, the other partners in the agreement - France, China, Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom and of course Iran - have denounced Washington's attitude.

• However, according to Frédéric Encel, teacher at Science Po Paris, Donald Trump should not deprive himself of playing fully on a balance of power that is extremely favorable to him, even isolated on the international scene, especially a few weeks before the presidential elections. .

It is a case that will have lasted all of Donald Trump's (first?) Term: the soap opera of relations between Iran and the United States.

Since Washington's withdrawal from the 2015 agreement on Tehran's nuclear program, there have been many hot spots.

The latest has just fallen: the United States has effectively unilaterally reinstated this weekend the sanctions imposed by the UN before the 2015 agreement, to the chagrin of Tehran but also of the other partners of the agreement: the China, Russia, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.

Frédéric Encel, teacher at Science Po Paris, who has just released a Que sais-je?

on

(PUF), explains to

the stakes of this decision.

This unilateral reinstatement of sanctions, is it legal?

It is a real question of international law.

The United States has the right to withdraw, unilaterally, from a multilateral agreement.

Everyone has the right to withdraw their signature.

And the agreement of July 14, 2015 on Iranian nuclear power signed between the 5 + 1 (that is to say the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany) and Iran can be called into question by one of the signatories.

This does not necessarily call into question the entire treaty.

The problem is whether the withdrawing state has the right, under international law, to require other signatories to withdraw from the agreement.

The answer is no.

But there, the United States empties the agreement of its substance by threatening the States with sanctions such as they are crippling to pursue steps with Iran.

What is certain is that we are neither in the spirit of the agreement nor in the spirit of international law.

On the letter, we are in the dark.

Europe, China and Russia, the UN too, have said that all this does not change anything.

But can these countries really act like nothing has happened?

One can decide, and to some extent China and other non-signatory states do, to circumvent American threats by continuing to trade with Iran.

In sectors that are certainly less strategic, but still.

Obviously, until now in any case, these threats of sanctions are so serious, in particular as the financial plan, that the 5 + 1 and almost all the other States submit to them, directly or indirectly.

The American president plays on this favorable balance of power to empty the treaty of its substance.

But this is only possible because it is the United States that threatens.

That would be Russia, it wouldn't be the same story ...

Obviously!

These are just power struggles.

They do not necessarily degenerate into a massive and lethal use of violence, I have called war, but obviously we are in a power struggle.

The UN is only a cenacle, a forum and each State is an institution which establishes its own strategic and tactical objectives, according to its own interests.

And only the United States can do that today in the world, especially because of this financial power which, for the moment, remains.

This reinstatement of sanctions is not happening like a hair in the soup, the withdrawal of the United States from the 2015 agreement is already a bit old.

But should we still see in this action an effect of the American presidential election campaign?

Yes.

Because the sanctions could very well have been dropped a little earlier.

But it is happening now, in the last phase of the electoral campaign, when Donald Trump is in difficulty, since the Covid-19 has turned the economic situation upside down, that is to say what matters most and which was his point strong until then.

The last phase of Donald Trump's campaign is working hard.

American public opinion, like so many others, is not very interested in international affairs.

In any case, not as much as the economy.

Except that the evangelists fully support Trump and absolutely want to see him stand firm vis-à-vis Iran.

In the same vein, is there a link with the recent normalization of relations between certain Gulf countries and Israel?

Totally!

One does not go without the other.

The American withdrawal from the agreement of July 14, 2015 was already absolutely linked to the unconditional support of Saudi Arabia by the United States, in particular because Saudi Arabia had committed to buy 130 billion dollars of military equipment. American.

Here again we come back to the internal use of Trump's foreign policy.

Because such a large amount of purchases means tens of thousands of jobs in the industry, including in swings states.

So we fully support Saudi Arabia and its allies, we fully support Israel for the evangelical vote, all of this fits perfectly into a coherent scheme that requires stigmatizing Iran as much as possible.

On the Iranian side, can Tehran respond and with what means?

As is often the case with small or medium powers faced with stronger powers than themselves, we will attempt the threat and try to use the capacity for nuisance.

Iran absolutely cannot build an economic, financial and not even seriously military coalition against the United States and its allies.

On the other hand, Iran can use levers such as the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah, militarily very powerful in the region, such as pro-Iranian Yemeni groups, such as Iraqi Shiite groups ... We can even in the worst case threaten free maritime movement in the Strait of Hormuz [key crossing point for the transportation of oil from the Persian Gulf].

At the same time, we saw clearly during the elimination of General Soleimani by the Americans less than a year ago that the Iranian response can only be limited.

Because, at the end of the ends, a rise in tension that would be part of a real conflict, Iran cannot win.

The possibilities for Iranian retaliation are extremely low.

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United States unilaterally proclaims return of UN sanctions against Iran

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