Minister Gualtieri

  • Coronavirus, OECD: Worst crisis since the postwar period.

    Italy's GDP -10.5% in 2020, + 5.4% in 2021

  • Gentiloni: "Deep and uneven contraction of GDP. Recovery in progress but uncertainty about speed"

  • Gualtieri: "We are dealing with the Mes, but 120 billion in loans since Recovery"

  • Landini and Furlan: "With the Recovery Fund, restart the economy and employment. The government will listen to us"

  • Recovery Fund: less taxes, digital, school and work.

    Government ready to report to the Houses

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19 September 2020 The government is preparing to slightly lower GDP estimates in 2020. In the Update of the Def expected by the end of the month, sources close to the dossier report, the bar should settle around -9%.

The previous estimate, dating back to April and contained in the Def, was -8%.

The new estimate was broadly anticipated by the Minister of Economy Gualtieri.

However, this would be a much lower number than that calculated by the major international institutions.

The OECD forecast for Italy -10.5%, while in July the EU had estimated -11.2% and in June the IMF -12.8%.



The Nadef (Update Note) will be the first test bed for economic policy after the polls and ahead of the autumn.

The government is preparing to revise the programmatic estimates in light of the impact generated by the Covid epidemic.

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In recent days the same Minister of Economy, Roberto Gualtieri, had announced a limited downward revision, with a single-digit decline for the year.

And also for the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, the fall in GDP should be just under 10 per cent, with a subsequent, very gradual, recovery. The executive remains cautious on the economic outlook but confident that the GDP trend is better than expected.

Therefore, the downward revision will be more contained and not in line with the most recent forecasts of the major international institutions. 



The Nadef should indicate a rebound in GDP between 4 and 6% in 2021 (in April the recovery was estimated at + 4.7%) favored by the boost that will come from the resources of the Recovery fund, and the return path of the deficit for the years 2021-2023, as well as a gradual decline in the debt / GDP ratio from next year.



The 100 billion put into play with the anti-Covid decrees that have been passed since March have to be reabsorbed and the debt is likely to jump over 160%.

In the April Def, the net debt bar was set at 10.4% for the current year and then dropped to 5.7% in 2021, while the public debt was seen to rise to a record level of 155.7% to then drop to 152.7%.



The Italian recovery plan will not be linked to the updating of the macroeconomic framework but Nadef and the budget planning will take into account European resources even if these will not yet be available.

Therefore, the game is open on the 209 billion of the Recovery Fund.



The programmatic scenario that will be outlined in the new accounting framework, as Gualtieri explained, will include the forecast of the use of the loans provided by the Next Generation Eu, as well as an evaluation and an articulation over time of the impact of subsidies on GDP.



The government intends to use 81 billion in subsidies to increase investment and boost GDP growth.

As regards loans for about 127 billion, there is the awareness that, if not offset by a reduction in other expenses, they will contribute to increasing deficits and debt and it will therefore be necessary to complement the National Recovery Plan with budget planning aimed at rebalancing public finance.