Did the winds of the Emirati Bahraini normalization with Israel blow other than Jordan's desire?

A study prepared by an academic researcher does not hide Jordan's concern about the state of Israeli-Gulf rapprochement, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as this rapprochement loses Jordan's geopolitical position and eliminates the Gulf's need for it, and brings with it a number of strategic challenges and troubles for the Kingdom.

The difficulties that Jordan is expected to face in the coming days are two-fold - according to the academic study prepared by researcher Hassan Al-Barari for the German Friedrich Ebert Foundation, and the island obtained a copy of it - the first is that the Israeli-Emirati peace deal does not oblige Israel to cancel its decision to annex the Jordan Valley areas, which keeps fears of annexation. List in front of Jordan.

In its second aspect, the Kingdom fears that it will harm its role in caring for Jerusalem and the Islamic and Christian holy sites, through the UAE and Saudi Arabia playing a new role there, especially since Abu Dhabi will transport Muslim pilgrims to Jerusalem via Ben Gurion Airport without using Jordan as a channel or benefiting from its position as a neighboring country to Israel. .

Ayman Safadi: The effect of the agreement and all peace agreements depends on what Israel will do (Al-Jazeera)

The occupation is the

official

. Jordan believes that the basis of the conflict in the region is the Israeli occupation, and its demise according to the two-state solution is the only way to achieve a just, comprehensive and lasting peace, and the embodiment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state with its capital occupied Jerusalem on the lines of June 4, 1967, based on a solution The two states, in accordance with international law, the Arab Peace Initiative, and the land-for-peace equation.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi commented in a statement Friday after announcing the normalization of Bahraini-Israeli relations that the effect of the agreement and all peace agreements depends on what Israel will do. If the occupation remains and Israel continues with its measures that undermine the foundations on which the peace process was based, annexation of lands, settlement building and expansion, and violations. In the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque, the conflict will escalate and deepen, and the region will not enjoy a just peace that the peoples will accept and which is a regional and international necessity.

Jordan's diplomatic relations, Al-

Barari believes in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net that Jordan has lost all the cards that it can play in the face of any pressure from its friends in the American-Israeli-Gulf axis, whether its geopolitical role or its role as a mediating state between Israel and the Gulf countries, and it is no longer a solution maker. Receiving solutions presented to it.

A march in Amman condemning the Bahrain workshop, which discussed the economic field for a settlement between the Palestinians and the Israelis (Al Jazeera)

On diversifying its alliances with the region's countries and the major countries in the east, Al-Barari said that Jordan has been very late in diversifying its alliances with important countries such as Turkey, Russia, China and even Iran, and “these countries, in addition to political Islam and the Muslim Brotherhood, do not constitute enemies or a threat to Jordan, as it promotes that alliance. The American, Israeli, Gulf.

Jawad Al-Anani, former Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister, does not agree with Al-Barari that Jordan has been late in diversifying its alliances, assuring Al-Jazeera Net that Jordan has maintained balanced relations with various major countries east and west, from Russia, China and Turkey to the European Union, and he remained attached to the US-Arab alliance.

He stressed that Jordan's relations with the UAE and Bahrain did not deteriorate with the signing of peace agreements with Israel, ruling out that these countries would exert pressure on Jordan, especially in the issue of Hashemite care over Jerusalem and the holy sites.

On Jordan's loss of its geopolitical role and being a mediator between the Gulf and Israel, Al-Anani said that Jordan did not play the role of mediator between the Gulf and Israel, and did not work to integrate Israel into the Middle East region, who sought to do so were the United States, European countries and international organizations.

The American administration,

on the other hand, Al-Anani and Al-Barari agree on the need for Jordan to invest its diplomatic relations with the American administration and Congress, and to clash with influential lobbies there, to play an awareness role of the importance of the two-state solution, and the seriousness of the Israeli-American solutions proposed in what is known as the deal of the century for the Palestinian issue, and that the current situation remains without solutions Better than what is Matrouh, according to Al Barari.

While Al-Anani believes that Jordan enjoys acceptance and a voice that is heard in the pillars of the American administration, Congress, and the lobbyists there, and “we saw and heard the speech of King (Abdullah II) in Congress a while ago, in addition to that the most important reasons for the Israeli opposition, especially the military one, to Netanyahu's plan to annex the Jordan Valley areas. It affects the security and stability of Jordan, with the need to preserve its geopolitical position. "

Jordan and the United States have strategic relations at various levels, Al-Anani adds - political, economic, trade and security relations in combating terrorism, and is the largest supporter of the Kingdom, and the US administration is well aware that the stability of Jordan means stability in the Middle East, Israel and the Gulf states, so its security and stability will not be affected.

Jawad Al-Anani: Jordan was not playing the role of mediator between the Gulf and Israel (Al-Jazeera)

Strategic projects,

according to Al-Anani, the Americans, the Gulf states, and even the Israelis are keen on maintaining a stable and secure Jordan, due to its geopolitical and security role in the region, its economic relations and the state of trade exchange with Israel.

Al-Anani believes that Jordan's geographical position as a link to major strategic projects such as the peace railway and gas pipelines between the Gulf states and Israel will pass from Jordan, and thus it will only pass by accepting the Jordanian solution to the Palestinian issue as the kingdom sees it by establishing an independent and viable Palestinian state.

While Al-Barari believes that the transit Israeli Gulf projects from Jordan will be in return and financial returns, and Jordan will not reject them in light of its economic crisis, he needs his friends in the traditional alliance, while they are not.

Options in front of a dark scene

Despite the darkness of the scene - from Al Barari's point of view - Jordan has several options, according to the study, the most important of which is its attempts to dissuade the rest of the Arab countries from taking a step similar to the step of normalization of the UAE and Bahrain, with a focus on the main countries Saudi Arabia and Morocco, and to work conservatively to expose and isolate the deal Emirati normalization without antagonizing the latter.

He also believes that Jordan should throw its weight to achieve reconciliation between the Palestinian factions. It is not too late to unite the Palestinians around a single strategic goal, and Jordan has not lost its influence in Palestinian politics.

Al-Barari concludes his study on the importance of benefiting from popular opposition to the "Abraham" agreement, and "by lifting Jordan's hand from journalists and the media and allowing it to reflect the widespread anger and categorical Jordanian rejection of the deal between the Emirates and Israel, thus it can raise the voice of Arab street opposition in the face of normalization." relations."

According to the Jordanian Foreign Ministry's statement, the Kingdom will continue to work in coordination with its brothers and friends in order to achieve a just peace, which constitutes a Jordanian, Palestinian and Arab strategic option, and will not be comprehensive and permanent unless the peoples accept and adopt it, and that condition is to fulfill all the rights of the brotherly Palestinian people, in accordance with international legitimacy decisions and an initiative. Arab peace.