Paris (AFP)

The global recession should be less pronounced than expected in 2020, estimates the OECD in its economic outlook published on Wednesday, the rapid and substantial reaction of states having made it possible to limit the damage, but the recovery should be weaker in 2021 than it is anticipated it in June.

After accelerating in the spring, when containment measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic were eased, "the pace of the global recovery has lost some of its momentum over the summer months, particularly in the weaker economies. more advanced, ”notes the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The organization, based in Paris, expects a decline of 4.5% of global GDP in 2020 and a rebound of 5% in 2020. In June, it predicted a recession of 6% and a recovery of 5.2 %.

However, she underlines that "these prospects are very uncertain" because dependent "on the assumptions relating to the spread of the virus and the evolution of" macroeconomic policies.

In addition, this overall figure masks "considerable differences between the countries", between China (+ 1.8%) which should be the only economy in the panel to show growth in 2020 and India, which entered the sector later. pandemic, whose GDP is expected to fall by 10.2%.

In 2020, the United States (-3.8%) should ultimately do better than the world average, and Germany (-5.4%) better than the euro zone (-7.9%).

France (-9.5%), Italy (-10.5%) and the United Kingdom (-10.1%) should, on the contrary, bear the brunt of the blow, and rebound less strongly in 2021 than what OECD expected in June.

However, the OECD is clear: without the rapid and massive reaction of governments, without the consequent intervention of central banks, "the contraction in activity would have been much more significant".

It also invites them to continue to support activity in 2021, especially since "uncertainty remains high and confidence fragile".

The pandemic, which has killed at least 930,000 people, including nearly 200,000 in the United States, is accelerating in India, which crossed the threshold of five million people infected on Wednesday while Europe is facing an increase in the number case, the start of the school year and the next arrival of autumn.

© 2020 AFP