Normalization of diplomatic relations but stability in the Middle East uncertain Israel and Arab countries September 16 12:45
Israel, the UAE = United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, under the auspices of the United States, each signed a document to normalize diplomatic relations, impressing the long-standing conflict between Israel and the Arab countries.
However, no path has been shown to resolve the Palestinian problem that has caused the conflict, and it is unclear whether it will lead to stability in the Middle East.
Representatives of Israel, the UAE and Bahrain signed an agreement at the White House in Washington on the 15th with President Trump, who helped normalize diplomatic relations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized the outcome, saying, "We have reached a new dawn in the Middle East."
On the other hand, in order to resolve the Palestinian problem that has caused the conflict, in the agreement document between Israel and the UAE, "We will continue to strive for a comprehensive, realistic and lasting solution." I just mentioned that.
In Ramallah, the Palestinian Interim Autonomous Region, a protest rally was held on the night of the 15th, and residents opposed the normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel with a placard stating that "as long as the occupation continues, diplomatic relations should not be normalized."
In addition, the Palestinian Authority issued a statement saying, "Peace will not come to the region unless the boundaries before 1967 are respected and the right to establish an independent state with East Jerusalem as the capital is recognized." I accused him of not being able to connect.
It is unclear whether normalization of diplomatic relations will lead to stability in the Middle East, as Israel and some Arab countries are rapidly improving relations, while the resolution of the Palestinian problem is left behind.
President Trump's aim
Behind the Trump administration's active mediation of improving relations between Israel and the Arab nations are the appeal in the presidential election, the pressure on Palestine to achieve peace in the Middle East, and the aim of building a siege to hostile Iran. There seems to be.
《Diplomatic Aim》
President Trump has been negotiating with Serbia and Kosovo since last month, in addition to normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, reducing the number of US troops stationed in Iraq, and continuing conflicts in Europe through ethnic conflicts. In his daily speeches, he calls himself a peace mediator, "Peacemaker," and emphasizes his achievements.
President Trump's diplomatic security policy, which is easy for the president to take the lead, seems to have the aim of building up a track record of appealing to supporters at the timing of the election, and appealing his ability to execute and lead.
<< Appeal to the Conservatives >>
President Trump is strongly aware of the Christian evangelical faction, which is his support base, in the field of diplomatic security.
The evangelicals are said to be the largest religious force in the United States, and the Jewish country Israel attaches great importance to support for Israel as "founded by the will of God."
Since its founding in 1948, Israel has often fought in conflict with Palestine and the Arab countries that support it.
As such, evangelicals supporting Israel are welcoming the move to resolve conflicts with Arab countries, accepting that they will reduce the sources of conflict and improve the security environment.
<< Supporting Peace in the Middle East >> In
addition, the Trump administration seems to have the aim of fostering an environment in which Palestine is forced to make concessions on the issue of peace in the Middle East over the conflict between Israel and Palestine.
The Trump administration has called the Middle East peace the "ultimate deal" and is working to resolve it by presenting its own peace plan, but since the peace plan strongly reflected the position closer to Israel, the Palestinian side strongly opposed the situation. No progress has been made.
For this reason, the Trump administration seems to have a strategy of exerting pressure on Palestine and drawing concessions by working with the Arab countries that support Palestine, first resolving conflicts and improving relations.
"We are taking a different approach," Trump said at a press conference on Thursday, expressing his intention to continue calling for normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and other Arab countries ahead of Palestine.
However, the Palestinian side is strongly opposed, and it is uncertain at this point whether it will develop as President Trump expected.
《Siege against Iran》
Furthermore, the improvement of relations between Israel and the Arab countries is aimed at building a siege to Iran, which is hostile to Israel and the United States is positioned as the greatest threat to the Middle East.
Many Arab countries have a hostile relationship with Iran due to differences in Islamic denominations.
It seems that the United States is trying to isolate Iran by shifting the composition of Israel vs. Arab countries to the composition of Israel and Arab countries vs. Iran by encouraging the improvement of relations between these countries and Israel.
Expert "Take diplomatic achievements to your credit"
Regarding the future of Trump's diplomacy for the presidential election, Jonathan Pollack, a senior researcher at the Brookings Institution, who studies Sino-US relations, said, "President Trump advertises his achievements every day, so to speak. It will get stronger as the election approaches. I think President Trump will insist on diplomatic achievements as much as possible and take credit for himself, "he said, saying that he would put more effort into appealing his achievements in the future.
He pointed out that President Trump's policy toward China is "the president's idea is pure and simple, and he judges whether it is politically profitable or not."
He added that anti-Chinese sentiment was rising among the American people, saying, "Whether it actually works or not, even if it is symbolic, it will increase pressure on China." Chinese companies such as "TikTok" may not be able to expand their business in the United States, or may take a hard-line stance in the fields of economics and technology transfer.
"Negotiations with North Korea do not make a big move"
East Asian security issues at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, as President Trump focuses on building diplomatic achievements for the presidential election and seeing progress in North Korea's denuclearization negotiations Dean Chen, a senior researcher who studies the United States, said, "It is unlikely that a big move to hold a summit meeting again".
The reason is that "North Korea's strategic goal of possessing nuclear weapons remains unchanged, it is like a rock that does not move," he said, saying that no concessions can be expected on the part of North Korea.
On top of that, "Since the stance that the US side will not have nuclear weapons in North Korea remains the same, rather than a summit meeting, at a level below the leaders such as the commander of the U.S. Forces Korea and Deputy Secretary of State Vegan in charge of North Korea issues. I think that the remarks will continue until the presidential election, "he said, and analyzed that the stalemate will continue for the time being.