Has the effect of the French initiative expired? .. The formation of the Lebanese government collides with a dead end

Formally, it can be said that the time limit that French President Emmanuel Macron gave on September 1, for his initiative in Lebanon regarding forming a government, is nearing an end about two weeks after the President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, assigned Prime Minister Mostafa Adib to form the government, and the collision of its consultations Dead end.

This comes at a time when some political forces are seeking to buy more initiative time, seeking to improve their representative conditions in the government. The main knot that impedes the formation process centers around the adherence of the "Hezbollah" and "Amal Movement" to the Ministry of Finance and the naming of the Shiite ministers, especially after US sanctions, while the prime minister in charge of rotating bags and all the terms of the French initiative insists.

After the spokeswoman for the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs Agnes von der Maul stated that "the priority in Lebanon must be the rapid formation of an important government that can implement basic reforms for the country's advancement" and that it is up to the political forces "to translate this commitment into action without delay," Aoun resumed. Yesterday, Tuesday, he consulted with the parliamentary blocs, without reaching a solution that would remove the obstacles to forming a government.

In addition to the internal obstacles, it seemed as if the United States was shooting at the French initiative, as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized in recent statements to the French newspaper Le Figaro France's continued engagement with Hezbollah and its "political wing."

He said, "France refuses to classify all of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, as other European countries have done. Instead, Paris maintains the illusion that there is a political wing of Hezbollah, despite the control of one terrorist, Hassan Nasrallah."

Former Lebanese Prime Ministers (from right) Salam, Hariri, Siniora, and Miqati (Social Media)

Consultations in Baabda, the

most prominent boycott of the presidential palace consultations, along with the "strong republic" bloc affiliated with the head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea, was the "Democratic Meeting" bloc headed by MP Taymour Walid Jumblatt, considering that what is taking place is "contrary to the principles, a violation of the Taif Agreement and a violation of powers." Defined by the constitution. "

This boycott, May Khreish, deputy head of the Free Patriotic Movement for political affairs, describes it as "political malice" and indicates to Al-Jazeera Net that Aoun does not violate the constitution "because he is an actual partner in forming the government, and if he does not sign its decree, she cannot see the light."

Yesterday, the presidency of the republic issued a statement in which it responded to the "democratic meeting", in which it asked, "Where is the text that prohibits the president from consulting when situations require that?"

So, would the formation of the "mission" government become impossible if the demands of the Shiite duo were not met?

The deputy of the Amal Movement in Parliament, Muhammad Khawaja, believes that those who obstruct the French initiative want to impose conditions on the Shiite duo under pressure.

Yesterday, the MP went with former Minister Ali Hassan Khalil (who was sanctioned by America) to the Republican Palace to confirm the movement's adherence to Hezbollah in the Ministry of Finance, and to name the Shiite ministers.

Khawaja told Al-Jazeera Net, "Because our system is sectarian, we insist on adhering to the Ministry of Finance, in order to fulfill the principle of participation in the government, especially since the party and the movement are represented in parliament by 27 Shiite deputies."

So as not to be understood as sectarian, according to Khawaja, who said, "Let us go to a civil, non-sectarian state, so that we break norms and not cling to any portfolio."

It is considered that, as a deputy, he is not concerned with the French two-week deadline, although what is required is the completion of the government since last week.

He continued, "The French initiative has not failed, because France is not a charitable organization, and it wants a foothold in Lebanon, just as we have an interest in its initiative to open the doors of solutions for us."

Regarding the recent contact that took place between the head of the Amal Movement and the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and Macron, Khawaja points out that Berri is a discreet personality, but he assured him of the fundamentals of the Shiite duo, and that they would not oppose the principle of rotation if the Lebanese regime was not sectarian.

Al-Sharif: Some political forces emptied the political initiative of its content by refusing to rotate the bags (Al-Jazeera)

The complex of heads of government

at this time, some accuse former heads of government (Saad Hariri, Najib Mikati, Fouad Siniora and Tamam Salam) of surrounding the prime minister-designate (who was Mikati's former advisor) and forcing him not to open up to their political opponents.

This is what Khraish confirms, and she considers that Adeeb has hit the norms in the mechanism of forming the government, by stopping consulting with balanced parliamentary blocs, according to it.

She said, "President Aoun initiated the resumption of consultations in an attempt to round the corners, in the success of the French initiative, given the reforms it contained, noting that this consultative task was the responsibility of the designated president, and he did not undertake it."

Khawaja Adeeb also accuses that he only speaks with those who nominated him in the club of former prime ministers, "while we gave him 17 votes from our bloc."

On the other hand, Dr. Khaldoun al-Sharif, Mikati’s advisor, rejects this logic, throwing obstruction on former prime ministers, and places it in the category of "local accusations" in exchange for escaping from the real problem.

Al-Sharif goes back to the origins of the French initiative in the "mission" government, stating that it is based on two principles: portfolio rotation, and political participation in government.

If the principles of delegation are lost, the designated superior cannot continue his mission.

He tells Al-Jazeera Net, "The French sponsored their agreement between the political forces, but some of them did not respect it in light of refusing to rotate and adhere to its political representation in the government, which means dropping the initiative."

According to Al-Sharif, this leads to a major obstruction of the formation process unless a French miracle occurs. He believes that Lebanon faces two options: Either it takes the entire French initiative or takes nothing from it.

Basil and the sanctions

Some analysts and political forces believe that

recent stances were directed to the outside to show a kind of distinction from his ally Hezbollah, fearing that the expected US sanctions would include him, especially with regard to his adherence to Resolution 1701, demarcation of the borders with Israel and the work of UNIFIL forces in the south, and its confirmation Giving confidence to the government despite not participating in it.

But Bassil's deputy refuses to describe his positions as an attempt to differentiate, saying, "Our alliance with Hezbollah is strategic and existential against terrorism and Israel."

Internally, we may disagree on many files that may reach the point of a boycott.

Khreish stressed that the movement does not receive orders from the party, but rather works according to the interest of its popular base and the national interest, and rejects the logic of any sect taking over a ministry.

Nevertheless, Bassil's deputy confirms his refusal to conspire with any external party against any internal component, and describes the US sanctions with the illegal political they face, with steadfastness on their approach.

Deputy Khawaja returns, confirming that the Shiite duo will not make any concessions to avoid the US sanctions, which he describes as "global thuggery" and considers that Washington imposes its punishment based on the Israeli interest, "as the whole Middle East region sees with Israeli eyes."

In the context, Al-Sharif believes that the US sanctions will not stop on Lebanon as a means of pressure, "especially since the French initiative was not associated with stopping the sanctions imposed by America independently of any progress achieved by this initiative."

And waiting for what will be issued by France, which continues to conduct its contacts with Lebanon, signs of forming a government have not appeared on the horizon, Khawaja comments, saying, "We cannot decide the time regarding the formation of the government, and in normal circumstances it would have taken more than 3 months, especially since our sectarian system generates problems and does not." Produces solutions. "

And in the midst of this clouded and pessimistic climate, the coming hours seem decisive towards giving the French initiative new hope, or perhaps announcing a death, which will bring the crisis in Lebanon back to the first quarter.