Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarus ditto Alexander Lukashenko will meet on Monday in Sochi.
According to the official agenda, the meeting will be about energy, trade and strategic partnerships.
What does Putin want?
- For Putin, it is important that he succeeds in pushing through the twenty-year-old agreement that is about Belarus and Russia becoming a union state, says Jakob Hedenskog, security policy analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, FOI,
After several weeks of protests and after cutting ties with the West, Lukashenko is in a weakened position.
Something that Putin sees as an opportunity to get through his demands in the old agreement, which was not fully complied with earlier when Lukashenko resisted.
What is Lukashenko hoping for?
Lukashenko wants to remain in power, but as the Western powers no longer recognize him as a legitimate president, he in turn sees Putin as the only remaining option to achieve this, says Jakob Hedenskog.
- Putin has promised to establish a military police force that can be deployed at short notice if the protests in Belarus degenerate.
In the first place, both leaders probably want the protests to end on their own - but they have not done so, and there is no tendency for this to happen.
Russia's influence is expanding
- In the long run, this will result in a proposal for constitutional changes in Belarus, where Putin and Russia will act as a kind of impartial mediator.
The official purpose will be to make Belarus more democratic, and new elections may be proposed.
For a period, Russia will be involved in changing Belarus' political system.
According to Jakob Hedenskog, the purpose of this is to get the Belarusian population on the train, and also to get support from the West.
- But in fact, this will be a way to gain time, it is hoped that the protests will end.
Under the guise of democratization and constitutional changes, Russia hopes to increase its influence over the Belarusian political and economic system, says Jakob Hedenskog.