"Communication is gaining even greater relevance": what will Putin and Lukashenko talk about at a meeting in Sochi

On September 14, talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko will start in Sochi.

The official visit of the leader of Belarus to Russia was previously announced by the Kremlin.

As stated in the message posted on the website of the President of the Russian Federation, the meeting will raise "key issues of further development of Russian-Belarusian relations of strategic partnership and alliance."

At the same time, special attention will be paid to the implementation of Russian-Belarusian projects in a number of areas, as well as the prospects for the development of integration processes through the Union State.

Energetic accent

Earlier, the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov also specified the range of topics that Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko are planning to discuss.

In particular, the presidents will raise questions of trade and economic relations, including the restructuring of the state debt of Belarus to the Russian Federation.

The leaders will also discuss a number of other topical topics, such as prices for energy resources supplied to Belarus, interaction between enterprises, and a roadmap for integration.

“All this is discussed every time at a meeting of the two presidents.

Now, in conditions when Belarus is going through such difficult days, this communication becomes even more relevant and important, "- quoted Peskov TASS.

Let us remind you that on September 1, the head of the RF Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov said that the Russian side, together with their Belarusian colleagues, was starting a technical study of the conditions for refinancing Belarus’s debt to Russia.

As the Belarusian leader said at the end of August, it is about refinancing a debt of $ 1 billion. Lukashenko added that after Belarus keeps these funds, it will “be a good reinforcement” for the Belarusian national currency.

Speaking on September 10 about his upcoming visit to Russia, the President noted that he expects to put a "fat point" in the implementation of the agreements reached earlier at the talks between the heads of government of the two countries.

“You see the situation in Belarus well.

I think that we have made significant progress literally in the last days, maybe a couple of weeks, in solving the problems and tasks that have accumulated between Belarus and Russia.

I would like this dynamics to be preserved, ”the President of Belarus said in an interview with Russian Ambassador Dmitry Mezentsev.

Earlier, on September 11, negotiations with the Ambassador of Belarus to the Russian Federation Vladimir Semashko and Belarusian Energy Minister Viktor Karankevich were held by the head of Gazprom Alexey Miller.

As stated in the Russian energy company, the parties discussed "current and future issues of cooperation in the gas sector."

It is noted that the contracts between PJSC Gazprom and OJSC Gazprom transgaz Belarus for the supply of fuel to the Belarusian market and its transit are valid until the end of this year.

Cooperation between the countries in the field of energy was also discussed during the visit of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to Minsk in early September.

As a result of these negotiations, the head of the Russian government noted that the parties had reached agreements on issues related to payment for energy supplies.

In addition, Mikhail Mishustin said that he expects to restore the volume of trade between the Russian Federation and Belarus, which in the first half of 2020 decreased by 21% compared to the same period last year.

As Pavel Feldman, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts of RUDN University, suggested in an interview with RT, first of all, at a meeting of the leaders of Russia and Belarus, it will be a question of confirming those joint projects that are already planned or being implemented.

“First of all, this is the completion of the NPP construction by Rosatom on the territory of Belarus.

For its part, Minsk can provide additional guarantees for the uninterrupted transit of Russian hydrocarbons, which goes through its territory.

It is not excluded that once again the talk will be about the supply of Belarusian products to the Russian market, on which there were previously some disagreements, ”Feldman said.

In turn, Pyotr Petrovsky, an employee of the Institute of Philosophy of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, believes that the priority topic of the negotiations will be

energy projects, long-term contracts for oil and gas according to clear and predictable rules.

“The second point: in 2012-2013, the creation of joint holdings, the unification of Russian and Belarusian enterprises in order to avoid internal competition on the sectoral basis and to act as a united front in foreign markets, was already discussed,” the expert recalled in an interview with RT.

Integration process

In addition, from the point of view of political scientists, another important topic of negotiations between the Russian and Belarusian leaders will be the integration of the two countries.

Earlier, Alexander Lukashenko stressed that it is no longer possible to implement the agreements that were stipulated by the 1999 agreement on the creation of the Union State.

“The situation then (at the time of signing the contract. -

) was different <...> And now - two generations have grown up after that.

They are different.

And today it is impossible to realize the integration that was spelled out in the union agreement, ”Lukashenka said on September 9 in an interview with Russian media.

Therefore, according to him, the Russian and Belarusian leaders began to work on finding new ways for integration in the current conditions.

• Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Russian President Alexander Lukashenko after the signing of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus

• RIA News

• © Vladimir Rodionov

Note that the discussion about the prospects for the integration of Russia and Belarus has already alarmed the Ukrainian authorities.

As the Ambassador of Ukraine to the Republic of Belarus Igor Kizim said in an interview with Gromadska, further rapprochement of the two countries “will certainly be negative” for Ukraine.

At the same time, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov called "absolute nonsense" the assumption that during Lukashenka's visit to Russia the topic of the merger of states will allegedly be discussed.

"There can be no mergers, acquisitions and so on as a result of the visit," Peskov emphasized.

According to Pavel Feldman, in reality, economic integration between Russia and Belarus is already at a high level.

“We have a single labor market and free movement of goods.

On the issue of economic integration, there is only one thing left to do - to introduce a common currency, which has long been discussed in Moscow.

Otherwise, now is the time to take steps towards political integration.

In particular, to fulfill the provisions of the agreement on the Union State, such as the creation of a union parliament and government, ”the expert noted.

Pyotr Petrovsky adheres to a similar point of view.

In his opinion, Moscow and Minsk can first of all use the mechanisms that have already been created through the Union State.

“This is the supreme state council, and the council of ministers, and the collegiums of the ministries of the union state, which exist, but are not fully loaded.

So far, we have not even developed the existing capabilities of the Union State, ”the expert believes.

Speaking about the prospects for integration, Petrovsky also recalled the difficulty of pairing the tax systems of the two states.

“Belarus is a unitary state, Russia is a federal one.

Countries have different economies, and finding an approach to harmonizing the two tax systems is not easy.

So far, most likely, the emphasis will be on socio-economic issues.

It is possible that during the upcoming meeting the issue of canceling cellular roaming on the territory of the Union State may be resolved, ”the expert believes.

Amid protests

It should be noted that the talks between the two leaders will take place against the backdrop of a difficult situation in Belarus.

Let us remind you that on August 9, presidential elections were held in the republic.

According to the CEC, the victory was won by the head of the country since 1994, Alexander Lukashenko, gaining 80.1% of the vote.

Citizens who disagreed with these figures began to take to the streets demanding re-elections.

Protest actions continue in the republic to this day.

So, on September 13, the number of police squads and servicemen was increased in Minsk, and special equipment of the police and internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs was additionally used to suppress unauthorized actions.

This was announced earlier by the official representative of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus Olga Chemodanova.

• Demonstration in Minsk, September 6, 2020

• Reuters

• © Tut.By

Earlier, on August 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that at the request of Alexander Lukashenko, he had formed a reserve of law enforcement officers to help Minsk if necessary.

At the same time, the Russian leader stressed that the security forces can be sent to the neighboring republic only as a last resort.

According to experts, in the light of recent events, the leadership of Belarus could clearly see that Moscow is the main ally and partner of Minsk.

“Alexander Lukashenko has always tried to adhere to a complex multi-vector strategy.

However, now, obviously, he is ready for an even more fruitful dialogue with Moscow, ”says Pavel Feldman.

Pyotr Petrovsky adheres to a similar point of view.

“I think the Belarusian side is clearly ready to smooth the corners in the dialogue with Russia,” the expert believes.

Note that against the background of protest actions, the Belarusian authorities have updated the discussion on the constitutional reform in the country.

Lukashenka said that now the third version of the draft of the new Constitution is being developed, which is supposed to be submitted to a referendum in the future.

At the same time, if the updated Constitution is adopted, new presidential and parliamentary elections may take place in the country - the Belarusian leader said this during his visit to the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant (MZKT) on August 17. 

However, experts are confident that the planned changes in Belarus will not affect the Belarusian-Russian relations.

In particular, Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Moscow State Pedagogical University, expressed this point of view in an interview with RT.

“Russia and Belarus are united not by momentary impulses, but by common historical and cultural roots.

And today we have extremely close economic and, of course, cultural and humanitarian ties.

In fact, we represent a single historical, cultural, economic and political space, the proximity of countries is predetermined by objective, not subjective factors, "Shapovalov explained.

According to him, the talks between the two presidents could bring the two countries closer together.

“I am confident that this meeting will give impetus to further integration.

I think that a new qualitative level of interaction between Russia and Belarus can now be determined, ”the expert summed up.