Suga Yoshihide no suspense in the election of Japanese prime minister
□ Ji Yong, our reporter in Japan
On September 8, the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election officially kicked off.
Among the three candidates, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, who advocates the full inheritance of the internal and foreign policies of the Abe administration, has not only won the support of the main factions in the party, but has also been recognized by the general public in the polls, and has established an early advantage.
According to the agenda, the election of the president will be held on the 14th, and the election of the prime minister by name will be held on the 16th.
Regarding the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, the Japanese media described it as an election campaign that "is over when the curtain is opened."
The reason is that before the Liberal Democratic Party issued the election announcement on September 8, Yoshihide Suga, Yoshihide Kishida, and Shigeru Ishiba signed up for the election.
At present, Yoshihide Suga has won the support of 5 factions in the party and more than 30 non-affiliated members of 535 votes out of 394 members of parliament votes and 141 local votes, and has secured 70 to 80% of the votes of members of parliament; On the other hand, although Yoshihide Suga faced the challenge of Shigeru Ishi, who had received many support from local party members, he also received a certain degree of support from various public opinion surveys.
In response to the advantages established by Yoshihide Suga in the votes of members of the Diet, Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishiba put the focus of election activities on local votes.
The analysis believes that when Yoshihide Suga has almost confirmed his victory, it is impossible for Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishibashi to regain the situation, but for Shigeru Ishiba, who challenged the position of president for the fourth time, and who has long been regarded as a strong successor to Abe As far as Fumio Kishida is concerned, the fight for second place is directly related to the next presidential election one year later, and we must fight back.
In terms of domestic and foreign policy, the three candidates' attitudes toward Abenomics and the advancement of constitutional amendments have become the main points of contention.
Yoshihide Suga has been serving as the Chief Cabinet Secretary in the Abe government. He is the creator and promoter of the "Abe Line". He advocates the succession and advancement of the Abe Line, and focuses on breaking the vertical division of the central ministry.
Kishida Fumio had served as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Chairman of Political Research, and advocated the implementation of measures such as narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor, so that the achievements of Abenomics can benefit small and medium-sized enterprises and local cities, and the realization of society "from division to coordination".
Shi Pomao advocated the implementation of "large-scale resettlement" in domestic and foreign policies, to change the problem of excessive dependence on external demand during the Abe administration, and strive to transform to a domestic demand-led economy.
The "Yomiuri Shimbun" summarized the positions of Yoshihide Suga, Fumio Kishida, and Shigeru Ishiba on the "Abe line" as "inheritance", "modification" and "conversion."
Judging from public opinion in Japan, Yoshihide Suga’s "inheritance" line is consistent with the requirements of the main factions in the party to avoid political gaps and achieve a smooth transition under the current domestic and foreign situations, and it also fits the general public’s desire for stability.
Regarding the possible birth of "President Suga" and "Prime Minister Suga," some of Japan's attention has shifted to the next step in the Liberal Democratic Party and the new cabinet personnel.
Yoshihide Suga, who has always insisted that he never thought about running for president and self-positioned as an aide, suddenly announced his appointment and quickly established an advantage, which is inseparable from the support of the main factions in the party.
To get what it suffers, it must suffer.
At present, the main factions have been fighting over the party and cabinet personnel after the birth of the new president, and suspicions have arisen.
Although Yoshihide Suga said that he would not "reward on merit", only those with "reform awareness and professional knowledge" would be used. However, from the perspective of the political mechanics of the Liberal Democratic Party, if Yoshihide Suga does not handle the relationship with factions, the regime will Stability must be affected.
In addition, Yoshihide Suga inherited the one-year term left after Abe's resignation and is considered a transitional regime. How to improve the cohesion of the regime will be a difficult problem.
Although Yoshihide Suga stated that he would make epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery the top priority if he was elected, there are still many voices in Japan who believe that in order to open a long-term power channel, Yoshihide Suga does not rule out that he will dissolve the House of Representatives within this year and hold a general election. .