In a remarkable development, the arrival of a delegation from the Libyan Government of National Accord - on an unannounced visit in advance - to Cairo, raised questions about the possibility of a change in the Egyptian position towards the internationally recognized Libyan government, after years of hostility and bias to retired Major General Khalifa Haftar.

According to Egyptian press reports, the delegation met yesterday, Thursday, with Egyptian officials in the National Committee concerned with the Libyan file, as part of the discussion of activating the political solution and establishing a ceasefire, while no official statements were issued regarding the outcome of the meeting.

According to the previous source, the delegation included representatives of the western region of Libya, including members of the House of Representatives and the Supreme Council of State, and a number of leaders of the Volcano of Anger Chamber of the Government of National Accord.

An important indication about the sudden shift in Cairo's position towards the reconciliation government is that the reception of the government delegation comes weeks after the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi threatened to intervene militarily in Libya to support Haftar's militia, and announced the Sirte Al-Jufra line as a red line that Cairo would not allow the reconciliation government forces to cross.

With Turkish support, the Al-Wefaq Forces had changed the balance of power in its favor by regaining control of the entire West, after Haftar's attack on the capital, Tripoli, in April 2019.

Power Scales

With the victories of the reconciliation government, Cairo showed - according to several observers and indicators - an openness to the idea of ​​abandoning Haftar in conjunction with the rise of its second ally, the Speaker of the Tobruk Parliament (east) Aqila Saleh, paving the way for a rapprochement with the reconciliation government, with understandings and arrangements being prepared.

And the pace of calm in Libya has increased the absence of serious violations since the two parties to the crisis announced a ceasefire in late August, in conjunction with a diplomatic movement, to bring points of view that took place during the past days in Morocco and produced encouraging results that raise optimism for a solution to the crisis.

On more than one occasion, Cairo affirmed its commitment to "the principle of searching for a political settlement to the Libyan conflict." However, it usually considered the Al-Wefaq Forces as a "terrorist militia with no negotiations," which put it in front of difficult equations after Haftar's setbacks and the victories of Al-Wefaq.

Political analysts went on to suggest that the recent Egyptian rapprochement with Al-Wefaq may be an indication for reforming strategic mistakes, paving the way for Egyptian-Turkish understandings that exclude the UAE and remove Haftar from the scene.

Abandoning Haftar

For his part, political science professor Khairy Omar believes that Egypt's relationship with the reconciliation government is linked to limitations, including the recognition of the Skhirat Agreement (concluded in Morocco in 2015), and thus the recognition of the accord as a legitimate government representing the Libyan people.

The other determinant - according to Omar - is that Cairo will reconsider its bet over the past years on Haftar’s arrival to power, after his attack on Tripoli stumbled up to its "Cairo Statement" initiative last June, which excluded Haftar from the political solution in the next stage, and that Forming a unified government could be a solution to the Libyan crisis.

Regarding the UAE's position on the continuation of Cairo and the accord, the Egyptian political analyst indicated that there was no alliance relationship around Haftar, as Egypt’s view was that the war on Tripoli was useless, in contrast to the views of Abu Dhabi and Paris based on the fact that the war would end the reconciliation government and believe Haftar came to power, according to his speech to Al-Jazeera Net.

In line with the Egyptian position, Omar said that the previous reservation regarding the war on Tripoli facilitates communication with the Government of National Accord with its current formation, especially in light of the Moroccan initiatives to form a unified government.

Omar went on to say that Cairo is approaching the role of mediator in the Libyan file, especially that no country can be alone in the file without other partners, considering that peaceful treatment is much better for Egypt to communicate with all parties and help calm.

He stressed that Cairo's lack of enthusiasm for a solution by Haftar would calm the violence of war and violent conflicts, as an initial effect that could stop any attempts to clash and mobilize, expecting Haftar to be in its final stage.

He cited that all political dialogues in recent times exclude Haftar, including initiatives to resolve the crisis.

International pressure

Close to the previous proposal, Tariq Diab, a political analyst and researcher in international relations, said that Egypt is trying - taking advantage of international pressure - to push the two sides of the crisis to calm and the political solution to fix the wrong path that it took by siding with one of the parties at the expense of the other.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Diab stressed that positive neutrality is the best solution that is commensurate with the position and size of Egypt as a regional power and a neighboring country to Libya, in order to achieve national security requirements in its comprehensive sense, in terms of ensuring economic interests represented in investments, employment, oil, reconstruction and trade exchange in the West As is the East, and not in the East only, as is the case now.

In addition to the above - according to Diab - Egyptian neutrality enables it to play a regional role represented in the role of mediation and possessing a pressure card that was capable of preventing more regional and international parties from interfering in a region of strategic depth for Egypt.

Despite stressing the importance of a positive shift towards the reconciliation government, Diab stressed that "it cannot be assured that matters have become settled in the direction of Egypt moving to the role of mediator in the crisis."

He explained that the last step (the visit of the Al-Wefaq delegation to Cairo) is just a beginning that needs more positive steps and confidence measures through which Al-Wefaq can be convinced that there is a serious intention to correct the previous course and push towards a real political solution to the crisis.

A short time ago, a meeting of a Libyan delegation representing the western region of the members of the House of Representatives and the Supreme Council of State, and a number of leaders of the Volcano of Anger Chamber of the Government of National Accord, began with the Egyptian National Committee concerned with the Libyan file.

- Ahmed Fouad Anwar (@ahmadfouadanwar) September 10, 2020

Emirates and Turkey

Diab excluded the UAE from resolving the crisis, noting that despite its acceptance of the ceasefire initiatives, its real position was not to that, as it was forced to support - under US pressure - the sponsor of this agreement.

He explained that the cease-fire is not consistent with the Emirati vision towards the events in Libya and the whole region, which is its rejection of any truce with Turkey from the perspective of zero battles, in addition to that the agreement includes international and regional recognition of the Turkish military influence in Libya.

He also said that in the case of the continuity of the Libyan agreement, it may be an entry point for easing the tension in Egyptian-Turkish relations, which may include other files such as the East Mediterranean.

While the UAE is trying to secure Egyptian support for it in its conflict with Turkey, the latter is trying to neutralize Egypt from this conflict as much as possible, whether due to Cairo’s ability to change the balance of power in the region, or because of Ankara’s need to reconcile with Egypt in the eastern Mediterranean, according to Diab.