Overlapping interests between the parties, amid stressful life and political circumstances

Serious challenges facing the formation of the new Lebanese government

• There are great differences between President Aoun (Wasat) and Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib (Yameen) about the size of the government.

  Getty

• Bahia Hariri insists on a government of specialists and independents.

  Archives

• Elie Ferzli: Running back the Orthodox community is something that has become unacceptable.

  Archives

picture

The process of forming the government in Lebanon faces problems, against the background of the maneuvers carried out by the "March 8" forces to maintain their governmental influence. Among the most prominent of these problems is the attempt to pressure for the inclusion of party members in the government and the preservation of a minimum number of ministerial portfolios that they control, in addition to Increasing the number of government members to consolidate their political influence, in parallel with the attempt of some non-major sects to achieve a balanced presence in the government, which may push the formation process towards a new crisis.

Different positions

The parliamentary consultations carried out by the Prime Minister-designate, Mustafa Adib, with the political forces, starting from the second of September this year, revealed ambiguities in some of the orientations of these forces, which can be addressed as follows:

1- The Aoun Stream

The current’s positions reflected a difference in some trends related to forming the government. The head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, revealed that the "strong Lebanon" bloc wants to form a government capable of carrying out reforms, pointing out that the bloc has no demands or conditions, and accepts everything agreed upon. The others, expressing his hope that there will be a rotation in the ministries, that the rotation will not go one line, and that the government will be miniature.

Numerous reports indicated that the President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, wants to form a government that is not as miniature as Adib demands, and that he requires his approval of the names that are chosen before approval.

2- The Shiite duo

The "Development and Liberation" bloc, which represents the "Amal" movement, called for speeding up the process of forming a homogeneous government that includes distinct competencies to handle the reform file that was agreed upon a long time ago.

While the "loyalty to the resistance" bloc affiliated to "Hezbollah" called for facilitating the formation of the new government, in order to address urgent and urgent national tasks, chiefly the crises resulting from the Corona pandemic and the port explosion incident, as well as the economic and financial conditions and the fight against corruption .

3- Future Movement

Representative Bahia Hariri, who spoke on behalf of the Future bloc, affirmed the bloc's support for the new government, on condition that it be a government of specialists and independents, and that it be formed quickly, noting that the movement stated that it would not participate in the next government, and in this regard it is indicated that the leader of the movement, Saad Hariri confirmed in the meeting of French President Emmanuel Macron (during his recent visit to Beirut) with the heads of parliamentary blocs that in the event of any delay in forming the government, or any political attempts to impose people in it, or even any obstruction to the reform program after its formation, it will He will withdraw his support completely.

4- The Lebanese Forces Party

Representative George Adwan said that the "strong republic" bloc wants the government to be independent, with specialties, and for a homogeneous work team, pointing out that the party will not participate in the government, will not present names, and will not interfere in its formation.

Multiple problems

The most important problems associated with the process of forming a new government are the following:

Party affiliation

The process of selecting ministers on the basis of their political affiliation is the cornerstone of the dispute between the "March 8" and "March 14" forces, as the latter wants independent ministers who are not directly or indirectly related to the parties, while it is evident in the first proposal that they want to include The government is politicized personalities, which was evident in the National Movement’s affirmation of the principle of rotating the portfolios, especially the sovereign portfolios (defense - internal - external - financial), indicating the insistence on forming a government similar to the government of Hassan Diab, while the Shiite duo clung to a ministry Finance, which is rejected by the "March 14" forces. In this regard, it is pointed out that the French position is biased towards forming a politically independent government, and at the same time a government of national unity in terms of sectarianism.

Distribution of ministerial portfolios

It is clear that there is still a struggle over the basic and sovereign portfolios, by focusing on some ministries, as the Aounist movement clings to a certain number of portfolios based on its representative weight, along with the share of the President of the Republic, similar to the post-parliamentary elections in 2018, and strengthens the The Aounist movement adhered to this matter, the reluctance of the Lebanese Forces Party, the Kataeb Party, and the Marada Movement to participate in the next government, which could give it a greater Christian share in Adib's government.

Government size

Numerous reports revealed that there is a major discrepancy between President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib, in terms of the number of ministers in the next government, as Adeeb wants to form a mini-government of 14 ministers, while Aoun wants to form a government of 24, under the pretext Not to expand the scope of pressure on ministers, as each minister will carry two ministerial portfolios, which may detract from the effectiveness of the government.

Undoubtedly, this is due to Aoun's primary goal of supporting the influence of the Aounist movement, in terms of increasing the number of ministers in the government, given that the movement will name a greater number of ministers due to its representative size in Parliament, and at the same time the goal may be Expanding participation according to the French desire, as many reports focused on the importance of the participation of ministers from civil society and revolutionaries, to improve Lebanon's image before the international community.

Representation of sects

The deliberations of the parliamentary consultations carried out by Mustafa Adib reveal the existence of a complex that has not emerged clearly until now, and it is related to the representation of non-main sects in the next government, such as the Orthodox, which was emphasized by the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Elie Ferzli, who confirmed that «the administration Back to the Orthodox community has become unacceptable. ”

In the same context, it becomes clear from the speech of the consultative meeting (Sunni Muslims loyal to the March 8 forces) that they are not enthusiastic about the next government, especially after Hariri announced his support for Mustafa Adib, what they considered marginalizing them.

The spokesman for the consultative meeting, Adnan al-Trabelsi, revealed that the meeting will monitor the government's performance and build on what is required of it. He also indicated his refusal to form a government that works for quotas and deals, which means their anticipation for the names of Sunni Muslims who will participate in the next government, and attacking it if their connection is proven. Future Movement or former prime ministers.

The problem of quotas

The problem of the sectarian and political quotas system continues to weigh on the political scene in Lebanon, despite the French pressure, as the process of forming the government is witnessing maneuvers by the March 8 forces, to preserve the political gains that have been achieved over the past years and seek to form a government similar to Hassan Diab's government, but it is specialized, and with some slight changes, which may impose restrictions on the new government and put before it the same challenges that the resigned government previously faced.

• Several reports revealed that there is a major discrepancy between the President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, and the Prime Minister-designate, Mustafa Adeeb, in terms of the number of ministers in the next government, as Adeeb wants to form a mini government of 14 ministers, while Aoun wants to form a government of 24 ministers. Under the pretext of not expanding the scope of pressure on ministers, as each minister will carry two ministerial portfolios, which may be deducted from the government's effectiveness.

Follow our latest local and sports news, and the latest political and economic developments via Google news