Chief among them is investment in artificial intelligence and technology
The next revolution in the intelligence world requires the development of espionage mechanisms
Intelligence agencies are getting a lot of information.
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Changing the mechanism of work in the intelligence agencies has become necessary.
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Throughout human history, people have spied on one another, to find out what others are doing or planning to do.
People were watching and eavesdropping, using ever-improving tools that did not replace humans.
Artificial intelligence and autonomous systems are changing all of that.
In the future, machines will spy on devices to find out what other devices are doing or planning to do.
Intelligence services will continue to work in stealing and protecting secrets, but the way in which these secrets are collected, analyzed, and disseminated, will be fundamentally different.
The military has realized a similar radical change, and some have described the rise of artificial intelligence systems and autonomous weapons as a revolution in military affairs.
And also a "revolution in the intelligence field."
Machines will become more than just tools for gathering and analyzing information.
The preoccupation of these machines will continue to be the political, social, economic and military relations of human beings;
But machine-driven intelligence will operate with speed, size, and complexity that human intelligence cannot do.
Revolutions do not come from nowhere, as the origins of the revolution in the field of intelligence go back to the twentieth century, when new technologies, such as telecommunications and computing, pushed artificial intelligence technologies to a new development.
Humans remained clients of this intelligence, but instead of seeing with their eyes, hearing with their ears, and analyzing and anticipating with their minds, they relied on increasingly powerful sensors and computational tools to enhance their capabilities.
Tremendous pressure
Over the past 20 years, this trend has accelerated, leading to a massive increase in the amount of data available to intelligence agencies and sensors, from those on robots and drones to satellites, as they are now producing more information than humans can comprehend. On their own.
And in 2017, the National Intelligence Agency predicted that the data, which its analysts will have to analyze, will increase one million times within five years.
Having so much data so fast has created a fierce competition to understand it all, and this dynamic, in turn, has led to the adoption of automation, big data analytics, and artificial intelligence.
In addition, the pressures to keep up are enormous, and countries whose intelligence agencies can quickly process massive amounts of complex data will have an advantage over those that cannot.
The parallel shift to autonomous systems and artificial intelligence among the world's militaries has intensified competitive pressure, as intelligence agencies must be able to target and support advanced combat systems.
Indeed, the US military operates more than 11,000 unmanned aerial, underwater, space and ground systems.
In addition, US cybersecurity units deal with millions of robots operating on global networks, as well as IoT devices that act as sensors.
These ever-expanding systems require a special intelligence to operate, which means that over time they will become the primary intelligence agents.
Keep up with the competition
To understand what is at stake, this can be compared to what is happening in the financial world.
High-speed trading systems rely on algorithms that sense changes in global stock markets, analyze massive amounts of data to make predictions, and automatically execute trades within a millisecond.
Humans cannot operate at the same speed and size.
In order to keep up with the competition, even the most powerful investment firms are increasingly relying on quantitative trading systems.
In order to compete with each other for secrets, intelligence agencies will increasingly need artificial intelligence and autonomous systems, too.
And because machines have become the primary information collectors, analysts, consumers and intelligence targets, the entire US intelligence community needs to evolve.
This development must begin with massive investments in artificial intelligence and technology, as well as changes in process concepts, which enable agencies to process massive amounts of data and direct the resulting intelligence directly to autonomous machines.
As satellites and other sensors proliferate, everything on Earth will be visible, from above, at all times.
To keep up with all this data, geospatial intelligence will need to radically enhance the capabilities of artificial intelligence.
Liabilities ability
The US intelligence community is currently divided between different functions that combine and analyze separate types of intelligence, such as "signal intelligence" or geospatial intelligence.
The CIA may force the intelligence community to reassess whether these divisions still make sense.
Meanwhile, as the US intelligence community develops, it will need to limit its adversaries' ability to do the same.
Especially by slowing and stopping their ability to master machine-driven intelligence.
The importance of impeding the design and development of artificial intelligence systems and autonomous systems for opponents will increase, and this will require stealth actions, some of which will be implemented by machines.
For example, the United States could pump wrong data into an adversary's machine learning system in order to trick the opponent's AI system.
But just as the United States will target the AI and autonomous systems of its adversaries, so will the hostile intelligence services.
As a result, the United States will need to build new defenses and embrace new forms of counterintelligence.
To compete, counterintelligence officers will need the same deception they have always relied on, but they will also need more economic and technical expertise than ever before.
More generally, the intelligence revolution will force change at every level of intelligence, including organizations, training and technology, operating concepts, and counterintelligence.
The nature of the jobs
Intelligence gathering and analysis may not become an exclusively human endeavor, but its ultimate goal will still be to understand how governments, societies, and human-led militaries operate.
Moreover, humans will bring creativity, empathy, understanding and strategic thinking to intelligence, which machines are unlikely to match anytime soon.
As a result, administrators, employees and analysts will continue to play important roles for a long time to come, although the nature of their jobs may change.
However, an intelligence revolution is coming, and its society will have to adapt and embrace it.
Resistance to change has caused disasters in the past, for example, when the US Navy refused to replace warships with aircraft carriers before World War II.
The navy, at the time, was under a command that did not absorb the tremendous progress in air power, which would allow Japan to launch a devastating attack on "Pearl Harbor".
Likewise, the intelligence community is primarily run by human spies who may not always see (or accept) the imperative of machine intelligence.
Intelligence agencies must break down cultural barriers, invest in technology, and dedicate entire departments to AI and automation-based intelligence.
If the United States refuses to develop, it risks giving China, or another adversary, a technological advantage that Washington will not be able to overcome.
Anthony Vinci is a technology expert and associate director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
Just as the United States will target artificial intelligence systems, and the autonomous systems of its adversaries, so will the hostile intelligence services. As a result, the United States will need to build new defenses and embrace new forms of counterintelligence.
Over the past 20 years, there has been a massive increase in the amount of data available to intelligence agencies and sensors, from that on robots and drones to satellites, as they are now producing more information than humans can understand on their own.
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