The head of the White House, Donald Trump, announced a significant improvement in the situation in the US economy.
The politician is confident that the economic indicators in the third quarter of this year will become "record".
“The situation is starting to improve.
I think things will go great in the third quarter.
You will see for yourself when we announce the numbers ahead of the November 3 elections, ”Trump said at a White House press conference.
Also, the American president announced positive statistics on employment in the country, while stating that the economy continues to recover "at an excellent pace."
Trump said 1.4 million jobs were created in the U.S. last month, bringing the total number of jobs created in the past four months to over 10.6 million.
According to him, these figures are "absolutely record figures."
“Without a doubt, never before has the labor market shown such a rapid recovery from the economic crisis.
By comparison, the previous administration is responsible for the slowest, weakest and worst recovery in the country's history, ”Trump said.
Donald Trump
Reuters
© Leah Millis
Shaky situation
The coronavirus pandemic has led to a sharp drop in U.S. employment.
In April 2020 alone, the number of open vacancies in the American labor market decreased by 965 thousand compared to March.
By May, the US unemployment rate reached 13.3%.
Moreover, experts from the US Department of Labor admitted that during the first months of the crisis, not all those who were left without work were taken into account, so the real level of unemployed in May could reach 16.3%.
The last time unemployment in the United States exceeded 16% in 1939, at the end of the Great Depression.
On the eve of Trump's speech, the US Department of Labor published data on unemployment in the country for August.
According to official statistics, this figure is 8.4%, which is significantly lower than in April and May 2020.
At the same time, immediately before the onset of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the unemployment rate in the United States was 3.5%.
Unemployed in the United States, June 2020.
AFP
© John Sommers II / Getty Images
A report posted on the Ministry of Labor's website says the August data is encouraging and above expectations.
"The Administration continues to focus on getting millions of Americans back to work, as well as providing additional support to the unemployed through the President-sanctioned Wage Income Assistance Program, when Congress failed to take action to extend additional unemployment benefits," said in the message of the department.
In turn, the head of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) Jerome Powell noted in an interview with National Public Radio that although the economy is recovering, this process is very long and can be measured in years.
“About 11 million people have returned to work, but about 10-11 million people remain without work.
In a sense, it will be more difficult for them to find a job, since some sectors of the economy are recovering more slowly than others, ”the head of the FRS emphasized.
At the same time, the former chief economist of the US Department of Labor Heidi Schirholz expressed even more pessimistic assessments, calling the situation in the labor market "catastrophic."
According to her, a significant part of the new jobs that appeared in August are temporary.
238 thousand people received short-term work only for the period of organizing and conducting the population census.
“The rate of employment growth is declining.
In August, the increase was less than in July, and much less than in June.
Considering that the number of jobs has decreased by 11.8 million (compared with indicators before the pandemic -
RT
), such a slowdown in employment growth is a real disaster.
This is not at all a rapid recovery that could pull us out of the crisis in a reasonable time, ”she wrote on Twitter.
August was the 6th month of the COVID crisis in the US labor market, and the situation is dire.
We added 1.4 million jobs in Aug, but the labor market remains in crisis.
We lost so many jobs in March and Apr that we are still 11.5 million jobs below where we were in Feb.
1/
- Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) September 4, 2020
Experts interviewed by RT adhere to a similar point of view.
According to the director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States at Moscow State University, Yuri Rogulev, although there is now some economic recovery in the United States, this is an extremely unstable trend.
“The fact that unemployment has decreased is a positive development, but now it is impossible to exclude a new closure of enterprises due to the expected second wave of coronavirus diseases in the fall.
The situation remains highly volatile.
As for the merits of the Trump administration, the White House earlier adopted a $ 3 trillion plan to help citizens and businesses.
However, negotiations with Democrats on a new program have stalled.
Trump, of course, is taking other steps, for example, he cut taxes on wages, but unemployment today is associated with natural causes, with the coronavirus, and everything depends primarily on the spread of this infection, "the expert said in an interview with RT.
Andrey Sidorov, head of the Department of International Organizations and World Political Processes at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University, shares a similar point of view.
“The US is experiencing an economic recession caused by the pandemic and additional long-term factors.
Stock markets, which previously began to grow, sagged again, collapsed, and the real sector of the economy is stagnant, "the expert said in a commentary on RT.
Pre-election course
The coronavirus pandemic and the economic crisis it provoked coincided with a tense period in the political life of the United States - presidential elections will be held in the country on November 3.
Donald Trump was formally nominated as the Republican candidate on August 25, 2020, a decision was made at the party convention in North Carolina.
At the same time, although American politicians and economists are already talking about the prospects for overcoming the crisis caused by the pandemic, the coronavirus is in no hurry to retreat.
At the end of August, the total number of Americans infected with COVID-19 exceeded 6 million people; to date, 6.2 million cases of coronavirus have already been recorded in the country.
About 188 thousand people died from a new infection, the increase in the incidence in the United States over the past day was about 50 thousand people.
Hospital during the coronavirus pandemic, Florida.
Reuters
© Marco Bello
In early August, Donald Trump signed a decree and three executive orders aimed at mitigating the economic impact of the pandemic.
In particular, the US government is ready to defer the payment of payroll taxes for those citizens whose income is less than $ 100 thousand per year.
In addition, the authorities have extended the payment of an additional $ 400 per week unemployment benefit.
Also, according to the measures taken, the "moratorium on eviction" of people from rented housing for non-payment of rent is being extended, and a deferral of student loan payments is given.
The executive orders were signed by Trump after the White House failed to reach a compromise on anti-crisis measures with Congress, where Democrats hold the majority of seats.
According to experts, the positive trends that have emerged in the US economy recently are primarily associated not with the efforts of the authorities, but with natural processes - some states are lifting quarantine restrictions, and enterprises are returning to work.
“The economy is gradually returning to its former course, and what Trump calls his merit is a general trend.
But the numbers are unlikely to return to December 2019 levels in November, and Trump's words of a "great situation" are unlikely to come true.
Therefore, the head of the White House is now shifting the focus of his election rhetoric from the economy to the topic of "law and order," explained Andrei Sidorov.
However, Yuri Rogulev adheres to the opposite point of view.
According to the expert, Donald Trump in his election campaign will continue to focus precisely on the economic achievements of his administration.
“Therefore, he makes optimistic forecasts.
For Trump, this is a matter of winning or losing an election - it is the economy that worries ordinary Americans most of all.
The fact that before the pandemic a very low unemployment rate was recorded in the United States is perceived by the whole society positively, and if on the eve of the elections there is evidence that unemployment has decreased again, this will become a serious trump card in the hands of Trump, "the expert concluded.