Half a dozen plans for attacks foiled in recent months, a terrorist threat which remains "extremely high" ... On Monday, the national anti-terrorism prosecutor, Jean-François Ricard, and the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, respectively recalled that the security situation in France was still unstable in the face of terrorism.

The opening of the trial of the January 2015 attacks, Wednesday September 2, also serves as a reminder that the terrorist threat has remained in the background for several years, according to Jean-Charles Brisard, president of the Center for Terrorism Analysis, interviewed by France 24.

France 24: what is the state of the terrorist threat currently in France?

Jean-Charles Brisard:

The terrorist threat has not diminished in intensity.

It is a protean threat, which has multiple essentially external components, that is to say a threat that can be projected from the outside - such as the November 2015 attacks in Paris and Saint-Denis.

Alongside that, there is the endogenous component which is the most important today, with individuals who are radicalized, who are inspired above all by this terrorist propaganda which continues, which is perpetuated.

This internal threat is coupled with another threat that comes from those leaving prison.

Over the past two years, around ten terrorist incidents have involved detainees for Islamist terrorism or radicalized detainees.

Here too, there is a special effort to be made in relation to this challenge for those who are leaving.

In addition, the Charlie Hebdo trial which opened today is important because (this attack) opened an unprecedented cycle of violence in France and in Europe, linked to the massive commitment of French and European fighters to the within terrorist organizations in Syria and Iraq from 2012. This gave rise to the attacks of November 13, and subsequently many other attacks in France or in Europe.

This cycle is not over.

The consequences of this jihadist momentum will be felt for many years to come.

Are attacks like the ones that took place in France in 2015 still possible?

What threat do terrorist groups such as the Islamic State or Al-Qaeda represent?

Attacks by projected groups - coming from outside - are quite possible in our territory.

French jihadists are still in the area, free and on the run, likely to pose a security problem in the medium or long term.

They have not given up on ideology, nor on engaging in violence.

Individuals are also detained in northeastern Syria - nearly 250 men and women - and, failing for us to have ensured their return to France, which would have guaranteed us their detention, we are running the risk that they may be escape from these camps and prisons.

In recent months, around 20 of them have tried and managed to flee.

Still others have managed to relocate to other jihad lands, in Libya and Afghanistan.

Terrorist organizations, even if they have lost their territory in Syria and Iraq, are reconstituting operational capacities elsewhere, and it is from these nerve centers that they can also strike, or in any case remotely control attacks of the type of those in the United States. November 13, 2015. So this external threat should not be ruled out, and I take as proof several thwarted attacks in Europe - in Germany, Poland and Spain - last April-May, which involved individuals in contact with executives from the Islamic State group either in Afghanistan, Syria or Iraq.

What about the internal threat put forward on Monday by the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin?

We are faced with an extremely diffuse threat because very often these radicalized individuals have only a virtual link with these organizations and they are inspired by the latter's propaganda.

Since the start of the year, three attacks of this type have been foiled in France.

They had to implement improvised operating methods and rudimentary weapons which would, nevertheless, have had a significant impact on their psychological and media effect.

These individuals are therefore extremely difficult to detect upstream by the intelligence services.

And this is the whole difficulty: even if there is a decrease in terrorist activity in intensity, because the attacks are less spectacular, detection is much more problematic.

These individuals are often below the radars.

In 60% of cases, those who struck in France since Mohamed Merah, in 2012, were unknown to the files of the intelligence services.

That is to say that today, even if we have a large number of individuals (8,132 according to Minister Gérald Darmanin, Editor's note) assigned to the File of alerts for the prevention of terrorist radicalization, these people do not reflect the full potential threat to our country.

What security stake does the forthcoming release of over a hundred detainees convicted of terrorism represent?

Leavers are truly a critical component of the threat to come.

This was said recently by the national anti-terrorism prosecutor during a hearing in the National Assembly and the Senate.

In recent years, 10 terrorist incidents have taken place in French prisons - plans for attacks thwarted either in prison or outside, attempted attacks and attacks perpetrated by some against prison staff.

We know from experience that a part - extremely dangerous - of these exits was engaged in a conflict zone, in a theater of terrorist grouping operations where these individuals were trained in the handling of weapons and explosives.

And 60% of them have reoffended on their return from Afghanistan, Bosnia or Iraq.

This is the reason why it is very important to provide mechanisms for monitoring these individuals, in administrative terms but also in judicial terms.

This was the ambition of the bill (censored by the Constitutional Council in August, Editor's note) which aimed to strengthen the monitoring system for monitoring these people at the end of their sentence.

Does Increasing Intelligence Strengthens National Security?

Of course.

If the intensity of the threat is gradually decreasing, it is not only because the organizations are weakened, but also because we ourselves have strengthened our own capacities to detect this threat and especially to hinder it.

Increases in resources in terms of personnel, in material terms, of intelligence techniques and a legal framework with the law of July 2015: all this has made it possible to strengthen most of our arsenal in the fight against terrorism, it is that is to say everything that is preventive.

Because the ultimate goal is to prevent attacks from being committed on French territory.

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