Coronavirus, Confindustria: GDP drop between -10% and -11% expected in 2020

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01 September 2020 "In Italy, as in the other countries affected by the pandemic, the minimum of the recession was reached in the second quarter of 2020 (-12.8% GDP, after -5.5% in the first, with a tendential decline , compared to the second quarter of 2019, by 17.7%) ". This was underlined by Francesca Mariotti, CEO of Confindustria, in a hearing in the Senate Budget Commission on the August Dl, explaining that "since the acquired change in GDP is -14.7% in the second quarter, with a rebound in the summer months between 8 and 9% we will have, at the end of the year, a drop of between -10% and -11% (taking into account a weak fourth quarter, around zero) in line with the estimates of our Study Center ".

In Dl August "an important intervention concerns the automotive sector" continues Francesca Mariotti, explaining that "the judgment is positive, as the strengthening and refinement of car incentives represents an important step towards the definition of an overall strategy to support the sector , with the aim of accelerating the renewal of the car fleet, supporting demand in a particularly critical phase and facilitating the resumption of investments in Italy ".

The subsidy equal to 30% of the total social security contributions due in favor of companies operating in the southern regions in the period 1 October-31 December 2020 is "an intervention that may have a well-founded motivation to assist in extraordinary and limited companies operating in disadvantaged regions to emerge from the economic crisis produced by the health emergency, but which certainly should be more carefully evaluated from a structural perspective, especially with regard to the effectiveness in attracting investments and supporting employment ".

On the extension of the redundancy block, "a not entirely clear regulatory framework emerges, with respect to which Confindustria once again highlights - as observed by the OECD and numerous commentators - that the extension of the prohibition on dismissal by law represents a a remedy of dubious utility, especially if it ended up delaying or even discouraging those reorganization or restructuring interventions and those investments that could more quickly ensure competitiveness and employment ", underlines Mariotti.

"The ban - which has no equal in any other country in the world - no longer has a reason to exist in this phase, which should, instead, be dedicated to favoring the resumption of activities".

"The third quarter should show a positive change in GDP, thanks to the recovery in activity that was hardly started in May-June. However, the recovery is so far partial and the risks that it will fade are high, leaving the activities on too compressed levels ".

"The recognition of a further period of a total of 18 weeks of salary integration can be considered as the logical and necessary consequence of the extension of the redundancy block contained in the decree-law. In this sense, the introduction of an additional contribution for the further 9 weeks, above all because it eliminates the symmetry between the prohibition of dismissal and the concession of the shock absorber that had characterized all the measures adopted in the emergency ".

Francesca Mariotti emphasizes it again.

"While understanding the need to reconcile the generalized concession of the instrument with the available resources, the criticality of the solution adopted is highlighted also due to the confusion it generates on the fundamental principles that must govern the correct and rigorous use of income supplements".

Despite the August Decree, "like the previous ones, it is still characterized by the prevalence of welfare measures over structural ones, there are some signs of greater attention to the needs of companies, although partial and not entirely consistent with the proposals formulated by Confindustria ".

Mariotti stresses that there are, however, "various priority and wider-ranging interventions, functional above all to support investments and to guarantee, in a structural way, the liquidity of companies".

Among these, Confindustria points out, "the recognition of the transferability of the 4.0 tax credit to the banking system on the model of the eco-bonus at 110%; the possibility of modifying the amortization plans adopted by companies, up to suspending the imputation in balance of the relative quotas; the necessary measures to ensure easier VAT recovery on unclaimed credits. These are topics that we hope will find space in the process of converting the provision ".

"The emergency interventions adopted by the Government, while trying to respond to pressing demands of an economic and social nature and despite the huge resources allocated overall (about 100 billion), do not yet outline an adequate response to the economic and recovery needs and growth ".

"The fragmentation of the interventions, the numerous implementation measures not yet adopted and the absence of a clear basic vision, undermine the effectiveness of the measures introduced with respect to an economic system whose overall resilience is severely tested by the crisis. they risk having serious repercussions on citizens and businesses, if the course is not changed immediately ".

"One of the priorities is undoubtedly the start of a reform of the social safety nets system, which we have already called for since mid-July with a document of concrete proposals".

"We need a system that focuses on active policies, to make it possible to relocate unemployed people and make the labor market more fluid and less rigid, with a universal character".