Roberto Azevedo leaves the head of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Monday, August 31, leaving an institution in crisis and without a captain. A situation that could drag on because of the American elections, according to experts.

In the midst of the global economic slump caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, several major projects await the future boss of the WTO: prepare for the 2021 ministerial conference, relaunch negotiations and resolve the conflicts between the organization and the United States.

Washington, considering itself "unfairly" treated by the policeman of world trade, threatened to leave the organization, which it calls for overhaul, and since December paralyzes the appeals tribunal of its dispute settlement body.

"The United States wants the next director general to share American concerns, many of which concern China. Since the director general is chosen by consensus, this firm position complicates the selection", points out the professor of international relations Manfred Elsig, of the World Trade Institute in Bern. "It may well be that many WTO members want to wait until after the election, hoping that the administration changes," he said.

Eight suitors

In mid-May, the Brazilian announced to everyone's surprise that he would leave his post a year before the end of his term for "family reasons". There is no shortage of candidates for his succession - there are eight of them, including three Africans, two Europeans, two Asians and one Latin American.

But high international tensions and the growing politicization of elections for the head of international organizations risk complicating the process of appointing his successor.

The WTO is to conduct a first round of consultations - called "confessionals" - with each member from September 7 to 16 in order to eliminate the three candidates least placed to garner consensual support. Two more rounds of consultations will follow, likely in October and November.

A politicized issue

However, the inability of member countries to agree at the end of July to appoint an interim director showed "the politicization of this issue," notes a source familiar with the matter. "The question is to know how far some could be ready to go, for example by blocking a candidate accepted by the rest of the members", worries a Western diplomat.

After the departure of Roberto Azevedo, one of the four deputy directors of the WTO - an American, a German, a Nigerian and a Chinese - was to take over the interim. But Washington and Brussels failed to come to an agreement.

Elvire Fabry, researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, notes that "the American veto" on the nomination of the German, which was supported by most countries, is firstly linked to President Donald Trump's desire "to harden the balance of power with the European Union [...] on the eve of the elections ".

"Such a concession, including only for the interim, would have been too important. But we must also consider that Washington does not rule out that the interim period may be longer than expected, and did not want to install a European in the place ", she analyzes.

Two directors?

In the meantime, the candidates keep their calm, like the Briton Liam Fox, who assured AFP to have "confidence in the selection process" or the Kenyan Amina Mohamed who says she has "no reason to doubt that the timetable will not be respected ".

"It's hard to measure the harmful power of the United States against the process, how much they can really parasitize it, how much disrupt it, how much they want it too. I believe that remains a big unknown." says Sébastien Jean, director of the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information.

"We have the feeling that the United States will probably remain rather passive and show relatively little goodwill by November 3. Some even speak of waiting until the assumption of office on January 20" of the American president , he notes.

While the process of appointing the next WTO boss has never been so politicized, some now no longer rule out voting, which would be a first.

In 1999, when countries had failed to come to an agreement, they preferred to appoint two directors, each with a short term of three years. A compromise which, in view of the colossal task which awaits the successor of Roberto Azevedo, is not to the taste of the expert Manfred Elsig: "A person whose mandate is short risks being perceived as a lame duck from the start. start ".

With AFP

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