World Weekly丨What is the reason for the sudden resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe?
On August 28, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that he would resign from the post of Prime Minister of the Cabinet.
Abe: Because my illness requires treatment and my body is in pain, I am not allowed to make any mistakes when making important political decisions. Since I am unable to perform my duties and can no longer confidently respond to the demands of the people, I decided not to If I continue to serve as Prime Minister, I will resign as Prime Minister.
On August 17, Shinzo Abe went to Keio University Hospital for an "additional checkup" for regular physical examinations, and then left about 7 hours later.
Just a week later, on August 24, the same day that Abe set the record for the number of consecutive days in power by the Japanese prime minister, Abe went to the hospital again for an examination.
Abe said that according to the doctor's recommendation, the new intravenous treatment will be given on August 31. Although there may be improvement, the effect cannot be guaranteed, so he decided to "retire" and receive treatment.
Japanese people: I am surprised! He looked tired, but I didn't expect him to resign. I hope he can work harder and be prime minister for a while.
In September 2006, Abe became prime minister for the first time, becoming the first Japanese prime minister born after World War II and the youngest postwar Japanese prime minister. But a year later, in September 2007, Abe suddenly resigned as prime minister due to health reasons.
In 2012, Shinzo Abe accepted an exclusive interview with the Journal of the Japanese Society of Gastroenterology, "Digestive Organ Square".
Claiming that he has found an effective way to control his condition. Leave the impression of "actively conquering the disease" to the public.
At that time, Japan was facing an economic downturn after the major earthquake and the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. The people were eager for a leader who could change luck and bring miracles out of the predicament.
In September 2012, Abe "revived" and became the president of the opposition Liberal Democratic Party. In the House of Representatives election in December of that year, he led the Liberal Democratic Party to defeat the ruling Democratic Party and become prime minister.
Subsequently, the Abe cabinet broke the previous "reckoning" situation of the Japanese political circle changing the government once a year, and while creating a long-term ruling record, it made Japan's political and economic progress smoothly.
Japanese people: He is working hard to deal with the new crown pneumonia epidemic, but he seems to be exhausted recently. I am very worried, unfortunately!
According to Japan's Fuji Television, after the outbreak in Japan, Abe had worked continuously for more than 140 days and even vomited blood.
On August 4 this year, Japan's "Flash Weekly" also quoted government insiders as saying that Abe had "vomited blood" in the prime minister's office on July 6.
It is not uncommon for politicians to experience deterioration in their health when they are under pressure, thereby affecting decision-making.
The Presidential Medical Report collected by the Kennedy Library of the United States shows that in 1962, when the Cuban Missile Crisis occurred, then US President Kennedy was deeply troubled by "spastic colitis", but Kennedy concealed his condition.
In April 1919, Grayson, then US President Wilson’s personal doctor, wrote, “The President suddenly caught a bad cold and the entire human civilization is at a critical moment.”
At the time when the Paris Peace Conference was being held, and also during the Spanish flu pandemic, Wilson's condition was deliberately concealed.
In October 1919, Wilson was also paralyzed on his left side and blind in his left eye due to a stroke.
The sudden resignation of Prime Minister Abe will not only affect Japan's domestic politics, but may also affect the smooth hosting of the Tokyo Olympics next year.
The 2020 Tokyo Olympics were once regarded as the "fourth arrow" to boost the Japanese economy. According to the original plan, if Abe can attend the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics as prime minister, he will undoubtedly set a new record.
However, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has delayed the Tokyo Olympics until July 23, 2021.
On August 28, Kyodo News Agency reported that the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee will fully promote the hosting of the Tokyo Olympics and will continue to cooperate with the International Olympic Committee.
According to the "Japan Times" report, just before the official announcement of his resignation decision, Abe attended the "New Coronavirus Response Headquarters Meeting". He emphasized that more active testing measures are needed in the months before the winter.
Regarding resignation, Abe said that he felt "extremely painful."
Abe: I sincerely apologize to the people of the whole country and I will leave my job under the epidemic situation. My biggest regret is that I have not been able to resolve the issue of the kidnapped Japanese (left over from history). I had to leave my job before reaching a peace treaty with Russia and completing the constitutional amendment work. This made me very painful!
The New York Times commented that in a country that frequently changes its prime minister, Abe, now 65, has served as prime minister for nearly eight years, which in itself is an achievement.
However, there are different opinions in Japan regarding the political legacy left by Abe.
Koichi Nakano, professor of international politics at Tokyo Sofia University: Although Mr. Abe has been prime minister for seven years and eight months, he has set the longest term as prime minister. But in Japan, many people can hardly think of any particularly positive legacy he left behind.
In December 2012, Abe, who served as the prime minister of Japan for the second time, chanted the slogan of "Economy First" and implemented a series of economic stimulus policies called "Abenomics."
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe: What is "Abenomics"? It is to enhance the competitiveness and productivity of the company and improve its income.
Reform measures such as the "Three Arrows", the new "Three Arrows", and "Society 5.0" have led to a decline in Japan’s unemployment rate and an increase in residents’ income. Although the overall magnitude is small and some measures have been controversial, the economy The changes in the data have won him the support of many voters.
However, in the past two or three years, unilateralism and protectionism have risen, globalization has suffered a cold wave, and the Japanese economy, which depends on exports, has been hit.
Since the beginning of this year, the continuous spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused Japan's GDP to drop by 7.8% in the second quarter from the previous month, and by 27.8% year-on-year, setting the worst performance since 1955. This is the third consecutive quarter that Japan has experienced negative economic growth. This result has reduced Japan's real GDP to a ten-year low, which is equivalent to the results achieved by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe since the implementation of "Abenomics" at the end of 2012. .
This is a great blow to Abe.
In addition to "Abenomics", diplomatic breakthroughs are also an important force for Abe. Taking advantage of the long-term ruling power, Abe tried to implement "overlooking the globe diplomacy."
In September 2015, the "Abe Trot" on a diplomatic occasion reflected Abe's eagerness to improve Japan-Russia relations.
"Golf diplomacy" reflects Abe's emphasis on maintaining the US-Japan alliance.
In June of this year, Bolton, the former US National Security Affairs Assistant, wrote in his memoirs that among world leaders, Abe has the best personal relationship with Trump.
In mid-2019, many merchant ships were damaged in the Persian Gulf, and the situation in the Middle East was very tense. In June of that year, Abe went to Tehran to meet with Iranian President Rouhani, hoping to become the "middleman" between the United States and Iran. This was also the first visit to Iran by a Japanese prime minister since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979.
Koichi Nakano, professor of international politics at Sophia University in Tokyo: Japan’s relations with other Asian countries will be affected by Abe’s resignation, especially in personal relations (leaders), but the most structurally influential factor is also an increasingly important factor. Will Mr. Pu be re-elected as President of the United States?
According to documents released by the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, from January 2013 to January 2020, Abe visited about 80 countries and regions, surpassing the previous prime ministers of Japan.
Japanese analysts believe that from the perspective of party politics, the Liberal Democratic Party has never had an opponent that can challenge Abe. From a domestic political point of view, the opposition parties are generally weak and unable to form an effective challenge to the Liberal Democratic Party. Coupled with the help of the powerful "foreign aid" Komeito Party, the Japanese political arena has actually formed a situation of "Abe dominance", which is also a revision of Abe. Xianmeng provides the foundation.
In 2015, taking advantage of the ruling coalition’s seat in the Congress, the Liberal Democratic Party promoted and passed a series of controversial new security bills, lifting the ban on collective self-defense and allowing the Japanese Self-Defense Force to send troops overseas with the Allied forces in the name of "collective self-defense."
Japanese political commentator Naoto Amaki: Sending the Self-Defense Forces around the world is the main purpose of amending the security law. In this way, the previous policy of exclusively guarding defense, that is, the Self-Defense Forces will only defend when Japan is attacked, will undergo a fundamental change.
This move triggered a strong response in Japanese society, protesting people's calling the new security bill a "war bill", and the approval rate of Abe's cabinet plummeted.
Japanese people: (Abe) Resign! (Abe) Resign! Repeal the "War Act" immediately! Repeal the "War Act" immediately!
During his second administration, Abe also reported several corruption scandals.
In June 2016, an educational institution called "Senyou Academy" purchased a piece of state-owned land at an extremely low price, and the transaction price was only 14% of the actual valuation of the land. After the incident was exposed, the Japanese media questioned the involvement of political forces behind the sale of state-owned land, and the Abes were suspected of being involved.
Mori Yu Gakuen Chairman Yasunori Kageike: At the time, there were only two of us. She (Abe Akie) said, "Please accept this from Prime Minister Abe." Then she gave me an envelope containing a donation of 1 million yen. .
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe: I, my wife, and my office are not involved in this land transaction.
A series of negative events such as the Moriyou Academy scandal, the Kaji Academy scandal, and the cherry blossom viewing event caused the Abe regime’s support rate to drop severely.
Many Japanese people also believe that Abe's resignation marks the end of a rare era of policy stability, and that stability is what Japan needs most at present.
In September, the Liberal Democratic Party will launch the presidential election, and the new president elected will succeed Abe as the new prime minister of Japan.
According to a poll conducted by the Japan Jiji News Agency in early August, the number one candidate for the next prime minister is Shige Shigeru, the former secretary of the Liberal Democratic Party.
Shigeru Ishiba is 63 years old. His father was the governor of Tottori Prefecture, and his mother was a teacher. Compared with the Liberal Democratic Party's political families such as Abe, Aso, and Koizumi, he was of ordinary origin.
Like Abe, Shigeru Ishiba, who was former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Defense, is also a constitutional amendment faction, advocating that Japan should establish a Marine Self-Defense Force Marine Corps that can cooperate with the US Marine Corps.
Diplomatically, Shigeru Ishiba is a mixture of soft and hard, not pro-American, and expressed doubts about the Japan-US alliance as the basis of Japan's diplomacy.
Shi Pomao participated in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election twice in 2008 and 2012, but both ended in failure.
On August 28, he talked about the presidential election on a TV program, saying: "There is no option not to stand for election."
Taro Aso, 79 years old, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, is also a strong contender for the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party.
Analysts believe that if Abe leaves office soon, Aso, who has rich political experience, is likely to be elected as the interim leader before the new party is first chosen.
In 2008, Aso took over after Abe's first resignation as Prime Minister of Japan, but stepped down a year later due to the Liberal Democratic Party's disastrous defeat in the parliamentary elections.
Kishida Fumio, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's political investigation. According to Japan's "Keizai Shimbun", he is Abe's favorite successor. In January of this year, Abe publicly stated that Kishida had made it clear that he would participate in the next Liberal Democratic Party presidential election and looked forward to his actions.
The 63-year-old Kishida served as Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Abe administration from 2012 to 2017. He was cautious on the issue of constitutional amendment and advocated strengthening the Japan-US alliance. But his public opinion support rate is not high.
On August 28, the day Abe announced his resignation, Fumio Kishida publicly stated that he was ready to run for the election.
In addition, the current Defense Minister Taro Kono, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, and Minister of the Environment Shinjiro Koizumi are all regarded as strong competitors.
As of August 24, the total number of days in office after Abe was re-elected as prime minister has exceeded the 2,798 days of former prime minister Eisaku Sato, becoming the longest consecutive prime minister in Japan's history. If you count his time in office for the first time, Abe has become the Japanese prime minister with the longest accumulative time since November 2019.
And the resignation of Abe will undoubtedly bring a big shock wave to the Japanese politics that has been accustomed to the rhythm of the past.