The only agreement that is nearly abolished

　　Japan-South Korea military cooperation faltering

　　According to Kyodo News, in the early morning of August 25, local time, Japan and South Korea’s "Military Intelligence Protection Agreement" ushered in the deadline for notification of termination. However, the South Korean side did not issue a notice, and the agreement is expected to continue.

　　Since Japan imposed export restrictions on South Korea in July 2019, Japan-South Korea relations have been in a downturn. South Korea once threatened to "end at any time" the "Military Intelligence Protection Agreement." Experts pointed out that this agreement is the only military agreement between Japan and South Korea, and both sides should treat it with caution.

Contract renewal turmoil continues

　　According to Japanese media reports, the Japanese side expressed "gratefulness" over the extension of the agreement. Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono said at a press conference on August 25 that the three countries of the United States, Japan and South Korea believe that cooperation is very important.

　　The Japan-Korea "Military Intelligence Protection Agreement" was signed on November 23, 2016 so that the two sides can share sensitive military intelligence. The agreement lasts for one year and is automatically extended when it expires. If either party of South Korea or Japan is unwilling to renew, it needs to notify the other party of the termination of the agreement 90 days in advance, that is, before August 24.

　　According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on August 4 that the South Korean government can terminate the agreement at any time. South Korea will decide whether to exercise this right based on the progress of Japan’s removal of export restrictions, and will not renew the visa every year as before.

　　This is not the first time South Korea has spoken fiercely on the issue of agreement renewal. In July 2019, the Japanese government included three key semiconductor industrial raw materials as targets of export control to South Korea and excluded South Korea from the trade "white list" in early August, which triggered dissatisfaction with South Korea. On August 22, the South Korean government stated that Japan imposed export controls on South Korea on the grounds of lack of mutual trust, resulting in a huge change in the security cooperation environment between the two countries, and that it would no longer renew the "Military Intelligence Protection Agreement." At the request and coordination of the United States, on November 22, South Korea stated before the agreement expired that year that it would "conditionally" renew the agreement and engage in dialogue with Japan.

U.S. pressure

　　"In trade negotiations and negotiations with Japan, South Korea lacks effective countermeasures. It can only throw threatening words on security issues without corresponding follow-up actions. To a certain extent, this is South Korea’s diplomacy with Japan. An expression of helplessness." Associate Professor Li Jiacheng of the School of International Relations of Liaoning University analyzed in an interview with our reporter.

　　"The reason why the South Korean government changed its course is mainly because of the United States." South Korea’s "Joongang Ilbo" recently analyzed that "abandoning the "Military Intelligence Protection Agreement" means that it will depart from the trilateral security cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan. Under strong pressure from the United States, The agreement is no longer a bargaining chip that South Korea can use at any time. In fact, Japan is well aware of this."

　　"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" analyzed that once South Korea unilaterally announces the termination of the Japan-South Korea "Military Intelligence Protection Agreement", it will inevitably lead to chaos and may also lead to deterioration of South Korea-US relations.

　　"The United States is the primary factor affecting the renewal of the Japan-Korea "Military Intelligence Protection Agreement"." Li Jiacheng pointed out that in Northeast Asia, the United States has not yet formed a multilateral military alliance like NATO. After signing military alliance treaties with Japan and South Korea, the United States hopes to see Japan and South Korea also strengthen military cooperation, which will help the United States conduct military operations in the region. Under pressure from the United States, South Korea had to carefully watch its winks and act. In addition, when the relationship between South Korea and North Korea is facing uncertainty and the relationship between the United States and North Korea is suspended, South Korea relies on military intelligence sources from the United States and Japan to ensure its own security, so it will try its best to avoid taking major actions in the security field.

Both sides will remain cautious

　　"The cooperation in the security field has shown an unexpectedly unstable state, which represents the current situation of Japan-South Korea relations where it is difficult to find a way to improve." A recent Japanese media report lamented. At present, Japan-South Korea relations continue to be at a low point. In addition to the difficult economic and trade frictions, the contradictions between the two countries on labor issues and "comfort women" continue to ferment.

　　The relationship between Japan and South Korea is declining. What is the fate of the temporarily extended "Military Intelligence Protection Agreement"? Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga recently stated that the agreement will help strengthen security cooperation and ties between South Korea and Japan, and can “contribute” to regional security and stability. Therefore, stable operations are necessary. As Japan-South Korea relations continue to be tense, it is still strongly demanded (South Korea) to respond appropriately. "

　　Li Jiacheng pointed out that the "Military Intelligence Protection Agreement" is the first and only cooperation agreement between Japan and South Korea in the field of security. It has a strong symbolic significance and is a "barometer" of Japan-South Korea relations. "Once the agreement is abolished, Japan-South Korea relations will decline to the point where it is irreversible. At present, South Korea is more hopeful of winning trade negotiations with Japan within the framework of the WTO, rather than having to resort to the abolition of the military cooperation agreement. 'Killman'."

　　"The prospect of the agreement depends on two key factors: one is the future trend of the relationship between the United States and North Korea and the United States and South Korea; the other is the situation of Japan-South Korea trade negotiations." Li Jiacheng said that in the foreseeable time, Japan and South Korea should remain cautious and renew the agreement.

　　Our reporter Li Jiabao