The crisis in the eastern Mediterranean ... the root of the problem and the escalation scenarios

In recent times, tension has escalated between the eastern Mediterranean countries, which are all seeking to obtain what they see in the gas rights, whether those discovered or not yet discovered, especially since it is estimated that this region contains up to 120 trillion cubic feet. Of natural gas.

The last episode in the series of escalation came from Egypt, whose army published a clip on December 12 of the current launch of the Navy’s “Harpoon” anti-ship missile from a submarine in the Mediterranean, which is a show of force sent by Cairo to Ankara , Which recently concluded memoranda of understanding and demarcation of maritime borders with the Government of National Accord in Libya, allowing Turkey to claim rights in large areas of the eastern Mediterranean that are claimed by other countries, especially Greece.

In Greece - which announced the expulsion of the Libyan ambassador to it - the journalist specializing in military affairs, Lawanis Nikitas, published a few days ago - via his Twitter account - a tweet attached to a picture he had taken from inside a Greek "Mirage 2000" fighter, showing the target's indicator, with a Turkish frigate in the sea. Aegean.

Nikitas commented on the picture, saying, "The Turkish frigate is in the range of the Mirage of the Greek forces during a naval mission in the Aegean Sea .. This is the language that the Turks understand. There is no retreat in the matter of national interest, no diminution of national sovereignty."

As for Turkey, which announced its rejection of the agreements demarcating the maritime borders between Israel and Cyprus in 2010, and those signed between Egypt and Cyprus in 2013, it has begun exploration in the region, as Turkey sent a ship for this purpose accompanied by warships for protection, which was described by parties in the region as illegal, and considered it Turkey's provocation is unacceptable.

Israel, in turn, entered early on the conflict line, and warned Lebanon against drilling for oil in "Block 9", but Lebanon confirmed that the aforementioned area is located in its territorial waters, and said that the demarcation of the border that took place between Cyprus and Israel is illegal.

 What is the story of the gas conflict in the eastern Mediterranean? What are the reasons for the Turkish moves? Why does a Turkish agreement with Libya anger Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus? What is the status of Israel in this conflict?

The following points summarize the backgrounds of the crisis and its most prominent aspects
- gas exploration operations in the Eastern Mediterranean The tension between countries increased in a region that was suddenly discovered to be rich in gas, but crowded with economic ambitions and opposing political projects.

- The most prominent fields discovered in the region so far are the "Zohr" field off the Egyptian coast, with an estimated reserve of about thirty trillion cubic feet of gas, and the "Leviathan" field off Haifa, whose reserves are estimated at 18 trillion cubic feet, and the "Tamar" field, which is located Off the coast of Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, it includes an estimated gas reserve of ten trillion cubic feet, and the "Aphrodite" field, which is located in Cypriot territorial waters and contains an estimated gas reserve of eight trillion cubic feet.

According to data from the US Geological Survey and companies operating in gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, the region floats on a lake of gas estimated to have stored 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 1.7 billion barrels of oil reserves.

Egypt's share of this wealth is estimated at 850 billion cubic meters, Cyprus has 140 billion cubic meters, while Israel possesses 310 billion cubic meters, and was the first to find gas deposits in the depths of the eastern Mediterranean in 2009.

Exploration operations in the region are managed by international oil companies, most notably the Italian company Eni in Egypt and Cyprus, the French Total in Cyprus, the American Noble Energy in the occupied territories, and the Russian Novatech in Lebanon.

- Turkey announced its rejection of the maritime border demarcation agreements signed between Cyprus and Israel in 2010, as well as an agreement to demarcate the maritime borders between Egypt and Cyprus in 2013; Because of what it considered to be an affront to Turkish economic interests, Cairo confirmed that it would take all means to preserve its sovereignty.

- Ankara has begun exploring for gas off the coast of Turkish Cyprus in search of wealth that it believes is the right of the Turkish Cypriots, as well as defending Turkey's exclusive interests, a move that has sparked a whirlwind of criticism from Greece, Egypt, Israel and the European Union.

- Turkey says that its movements in exploration and search for oil and gas are carried out within international law, and that the exploration is taking place within its "continental shelf", and the increasing tensions have revived the debate in Turkey about establishing a permanent naval base in the Turkish part of Cyprus.

- At the beginning of this year, Egypt, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Jordan, Italy and Palestine established a forum called "Eastern Mediterranean Gas", excluding Turkey from its attendance, which prompted Ankara to take measures and actions, the last of which was the signing of notes to demarcate the maritime borders with Libya last month, which It sparked angry Egyptian, Greek and Cypriot reactions.

The forum aims to establish a regional gas market, reduce infrastructure costs, and provide competitive prices as part of efforts to transform the region into a major energy center.

- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan affirmed his country's determination to continue implementing the agreements with all their clauses, and said that the exploration work carried out by his country will lead to peace and prosperity and not conflict and blood, stressing that Turkey will not withdraw its ships from there.

- Turkish moves in the region and the announced reactions from Egypt, Greece and Cyprus threaten to erupt into a conflict over natural gas wealth in a region already rife with conflicts and tensions.