Two conventions for nothing? Two months before the November 3 presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each delivered their final plea to voters. By making this election a "battle for the soul of America", the two candidates have mainly sought to mobilize their base, without really addressing the 10 to 15% of undecided who should tip the balance of one side or the other. If Joe Biden keeps 7 points ahead in the polls, the game is still far from over. With, as arbiter of a referendum for or against Donald Trump, the coronavirus and the racial tensions which make the situation particularly unstable.
Two conventions with no surprises or major failures
While the death toll from the Covid exceeded 180,000 in the United States, the Democrats held an essentially virtual convention. They put forward Americans affected by the pandemic, and Joe Biden accused the American president of having "failed in his most important mission: to protect the Americans". Promising to bring back “the light after the dark years” of Donald Trump, the Democratic candidate has made racial injustices his priority and has chosen Kamala Harris to accompany him.
Donald Trump, he offered himself a controversial coronation in front of 1,000 supporters gathered in the gardens of the White House. He posed as "protector of the American dream", accusing Joe Biden of being "at the orders of the radical left. "Adopting a harsh tone in the face of demonstrations marked by violence in Kenosha, he repeated that he would be" the president of law and order "and swore" to always defend the police ".
Disciplined, the two men avoided any major controversy - Donald Trump read his teleprompter monotonously without deviating too much from it, and Joe Biden woke up with a sharp speech. For Doug Heye, former spokesman for the Republican Party, "the two conventions should have no impact" on the ballot.
A stable gap, with 7 points ahead for Biden
According to the polls averaged by RealClearPolitics, Joe Biden is currently 7 points ahead of Donald Trump nationally. For a year, the gap has remained relatively stable, oscillating between four and ten points of difference. Hillary Clinton was also in the lead, but the race had tightened several times, and not just in the home stretch.
The Trump-Biden gap has remained fairly stable for a year, between +4 and +10 points. If he arrives 6/7 points ahead the day before the election, Biden should win quite clearly, but if it tightens to 2/3 points, especially in swing states, Trump could do it again pic.twitter .com / mmDYTdcr7x
- Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) August 28, 2020In comparison, the Clinton-Trump gap: Clinton had made the race in front but with 4/5 points of inflection where they were almost equal pic.twitter.com/IBIl67XhRH
- Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) August 28, 2020The American president, him, doubled the stake and made the bet of the “silent majority”. Several Democrats have warned their colleagues in recent weeks that the Trump vote is arguably underestimated, even as pollsters have tried to correct their 2016 samples in which graduate voters were overrepresented.
Eight crucial states, with the Covid and insecurity in the balance
At the end of July, 13% of Americans said they were still undecided. This is less than at the same time in 2016 (20%). If Donald Trump had created a surprise in the Midwest, it is in particular because those who had decided at the last minute had clearly favored him. This year again, the election is due to be played in eight states: Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, where Trump and Biden are neck and neck.
Two months before the ballot, the economy and the coronavirus pandemic remain the number 1 concern of Americans. In his speech, Donald Trump promised a vaccine "before the end of the year". If an announcement just before the election could have a major impact, it is above all the evolution of the unemployment and death curves that will weigh the most, believes Doug Heye.
On the side of demonstrations against police brutality, excesses and violence allow Donald Trump to raise the specter of insecurity and anarchy, explained last May to 20 Minutes Omar Wasow, lecturer-researcher in political science at Princeton specialist in racial issues. Conversely, peaceful protests help Democrats by boosting minority participation without scaring white voters in affluent suburbs. In the end, if Joe Biden has the advantage so far, 2020 has proven one thing: everything can change very quickly.
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US presidential election: Donald Trump lashes out against Joe Biden and poses as America's "protector"
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US Presidential: In front of 1,000 people, Donald Trump offers himself a controversial coronation at the White House
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