Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is leaving office. The politician announced this on August 28 at a press conference, which was broadcast on national television. Abe attributed his decision to poor health.
“Since I can no longer live up to the mandate given to me by the people, I decided that I should not remain in the post of prime minister,” Abe said.
The Japanese prime minister did not name his possible successor. He will act as head of the cabinet until the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) chooses a new head of government.
According to the Nikkei news agency, Abe’s cabinet will resign immediately after the LDP names a new leader. Most likely, this will happen in September.
Among the possible candidates for the post of head of the Japanese government, the media names several politicians, including the former head of the Japanese defense department and ex-LDP secretary general Shigeru Ishiba, as well as the former head of the Japanese Foreign Ministry Fumio Kishida.
- Supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan
- Reuters
- © Issei Kato
The latter has already announced its readiness to take part in the elections for the new chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Prime Minister of Japan.
For the first time, Shinzo Abe took the post of Prime Minister of Japan in 2006, but a year later he was forced to resign early due to exacerbation of chronic ulcerative colitis. However, after the disease receded, the politician was able to lead the government again in 2012.
From that moment on, Abe was in charge of the Japanese government. However, in August 2020, the politician was forced to seek medical help again due to an exacerbation of a chronic disease.
In an interview with RT, Valery Kistanov, head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that for all the years of his tenure as Prime Minister, Abe did not indicate exactly whom he would like to see as his successor.
“That is why now chaos, confusion reigns in the Japanese political upper circles, a struggle has unfolded. At the moment, the most likely candidate for this position is Shigeru Ishiba, who is a prominent figure in the ruling LDP and is a bigger “hawk” than Abe, ”the expert said.
At the same time, Abe's resignation will not hit the positions of the ruling party, since the LDP has a majority in both chambers of parliament, and the opposition is in a state of confusion, Kistanov added.
In turn, Dmitry Streltsov, head of the Department of Oriental Studies at MGIMO, believes that Abe's resignation will even strengthen the position of the LDP.
“Recently, the rating of the Abe cabinet has noticeably decreased - more than half of the Japanese do not approve of his activities. But a change in the prime minister, a renewal of the image of the cabinet of ministers, as a rule, improves the image of the entire party. Therefore, Abe's departure will give additional points to the LDP, ”the expert explained in a comment to RT.
Military turn
As noted by the Kyodo agency, during his time in power, Shinzo Abe acted from the position of a conservative "hawk" and tried to raise the prestige of Japan in the international arena. Thus, one of the important points of his political program was the revision of the "pacifist" article of the Constitution, which limits Japan's ability to have a full-fledged army.
During a press conference on August 28, Abe raised this topic. He expressed regret that during his tenure as Prime Minister of the country, he had not succeeded in making an amendment to the Constitution.
- Japanese Ground Self-Defense Forces soldiers
- Reuters
- © Issei Kato
In addition, Abe is upset that he did not manage to sign a peace treaty with Russia, as well as solve the problem of Japanese citizens kidnapped by North Koreans.
“We made promises on these issues at the party level. I expect that active work will be carried out in these areas under the new government as well, ”Abe said.
Recall, according to the constitution in force since 1947, Japan cannot create full-fledged armed forces and participate in foreign military conflicts. The functions performed in other countries by the army in Japan are assigned to the Self-Defense Forces, created in 1954.
Recently, however, there have been more and more calls in the country to revise the restrictions imposed on Tokyo following World War II. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its leader Shinzo Abe became the most active exponents of these sentiments.
However, constitutional restrictions do not prevent the Japanese side from building up its defensive power. Today, the Japanese defense department is even ready to join the global race to create hypersonic weapons, the military expects to receive such weapons in the early 2030s.
In addition, Tokyo is hatching plans to transform the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force into a military space force. These prospects were announced in 2019 by Shinzo Abe. The corresponding units were created as part of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces in early 2020.
According to Valery Kistanov, the "hawkish" course will be continued under Abe's successor
“Amending Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution was Abe's cherished dream. He could carry out this reform through parliament, where the LDP has a majority. But the referendum could show an ambiguous result, so the authorities delayed, ”the expert explained.
Dmitry Streltsov adheres to a similar point of view. According to the expert, the abolition of constitutional restrictions on the creation of the army is a long-term line of the ruling party.
“The LDP leadership takes a rather nationalist position, which consists in an independent foreign policy, a tougher upholding of its national interests and a stake on the military component. Most likely, the new prime minister will also promote this line, ”the expert said.
Territorial claims
Another task that Shinzo Abe did not manage to fulfill as Prime Minister was the signing of a peace treaty with the Russian Federation. The stumbling block in this matter was Tokyo's claims to the four islands of the Kuril ridge - Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and Habomai, which are part of Russia.
- Shikotan Island, Sakhalin Region. The largest island of the Small Range of the Kuril Islands
- RIA News
- © Andrey Shapran
Recall that Moscow's rights to the islands were enshrined in the 1945 Yalta Agreement. By signing the Act of Unconditional Surrender in September 1945, Japan accepted the terms of the Potsdam Declaration, which implied the transfer of the islands to the Soviet Union.
At the same time, a peace treaty following the results of World War II between Japan and the USSR was not concluded. In 1956, Tokyo and Moscow signed a declaration in which they expressed their readiness for the gradual development of relations and the conclusion of a peace treaty.
However, today the Japanese side refers to the terms of the Shimoda Treaty of 1855, according to which Russia ceded the Kuril Islands to the Japanese side in exchange for trade preferences. However, legally, this agreement has long since ceased to be in force.
As Pyotr Tsvetov, associate professor of the Department of International Relations of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, noted in an interview with RT, Tokyo will not abandon its territorial claims after Abe's resignation.
“Abe talked a lot about the peace treaty, he often met with the Russian president, so he got the impression that he is an active supporter of the conclusion of a peace treaty. But the Japanese side considers it possible only on its own terms, ”the expert emphasized.
According to Valery Kistanov, it cannot be ruled out that after Abe's resignation, the Japanese side will further tighten its rhetoric on the issue of the islands.
“Generally speaking, no fundamental changes in connection with the resignation of Shinzo Abe should be expected. The course towards a close military-political alliance with the United States, containment of China, curbing the North Korean nuclear missile threat will continue, and friction in relations with South Korea will continue, ”the expert concluded.