The rotating chairman of the UN Security Council and the Permanent Representative of Indonesia to the UN, Dajani, announced on August 25 local time that the chairman of the Security Council would not restart the sanctions against Iran as requested by the United States due to differences in opinions among the members of the Security Council. This is another major blow to U.S. diplomacy after the Security Council rejected the U.S. draft proposal to extend the arms embargo against Iraq on August 14. It also made U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo forcefully tie the Iranian nuclear issue to the U.S. election. Fail again.

　　Wang Jin, an associate researcher at the U.S. Institute of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, pointed out that Trump has recently made frequent efforts on the Iranian nuclear issue, intending to increase pressure on Iran before the election to show that he is "very capable." Regardless of the outcome, this process will deepen the rift in the Security Council and may accelerate the collapse of the Iranian nuclear agreement.

13 of the 15 members of the Security Council opposed

　　On August 25, the UN Security Council held a video conference to discuss the situation in the Middle East. Zhang Jun, Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, Vasily, Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations, etc. asked Indonesia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Dajani, as the chairman of the Security Council, how will he deal with the US’s earlier request to restart sanctions against Iran? Dajani clearly responded that he had communicated with members of the Security Council and found that only one member of the Security Council held a specific position, and the vast majority of members held objections to the US request. He said: "In my opinion, the Security Council has no consensus. Therefore, this chairman cannot take further action (on the request of the US)."

　　Prior to August 20, US Secretary of State Pompeo sent a letter to the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council this month, formally requesting the launch of the "quick restoration of sanctions" mechanism stipulated by Security Council Resolution 2231, and declared that the Security Council will resume all previous sanctions within 30 days. Iran sanctions. Pompeo said that President Trump and his administration have "abandoned" the "fictional claim" that Iran is only seeking a peaceful nuclear program and that "the United States will never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons." In his letter to the President of the Security Council, Pompeo also cited several examples in which Iran’s uranium enrichment levels and stockpiles exceeded the limits of the nuclear agreement, but all this happened after May 2018, when the United States had announced its withdrawal from the “Union Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA, the full name of the Iran Nuclear Agreement).

　　This request of the United States was quickly opposed by members of the Security Council. On August 21, local time, 13 of the 15 member states of the United Nations Security Council wrote to the Security Council, opposing the United States seeking to restart the "quick restoration of sanctions" mechanism against Iran, believing that the United States has no right to activate the mechanism after withdrawing from the Iran nuclear agreement. At the Security Council meeting on the 25th, many members of the Security Council, including the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany, the participants in the Iran nuclear agreement, reiterated that the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement in May 2018 and no longer has the ability to initiate a “quick”. Qualifications to restore the sanctions mechanism.

　　Regarding the Security Council’s rejection of the US request, the US Permanent Representative to the United Nations Kelly Kraft stated on August 25: “The Trump administration is not afraid to stand with a limited number of countries on this issue... My only regret is that the Security Council’s The other members have lost their way and are now standing with the terrorists." She also attacked China and Russia, saying that the "lost" of the Security Council made China and Russia "carnival", and threatened that the United States would persist in order to sanction Iran.

　　Although Kelly Kraft did not disclose what action the United States will take next, some diplomats speculate that the Trump administration will not let it go, and may instead put pressure on Niger, the rotating presidency of the Security Council next month. action.

Forced restoration of sanctions will break the Iran nuclear agreement

　　International diplomats warned that if the United States imposed sanctions on Iran, it would almost certainly lead to the complete breakdown of the Iran nuclear agreement.

　　In July 2015, Iran reached a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue with the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany. According to the agreement, Iran promised to limit its nuclear program and the international community lifted sanctions against Iran. The UN Security Council subsequently passed Resolution 2231, approving the Iran nuclear agreement. The eleventh operative paragraph of the resolution contains the content of the "quick restoration of sanctions" mechanism, but stipulates that only participants in the Iran nuclear agreement have the right to activate this mechanism.

　　With the deadline (October 18, 2020) of the UN arms embargo on Iraq set by Security Council Resolution 2231 approaching, the Trump administration has begun to make frequent efforts on the Iranian nuclear issue. On August 14, the United States tried to get the Security Council to pass a resolution to restore the arms embargo on Iran, but this proposal was only supported by Dominica in the Security Council. On August 20, Trump requested that the United States be one of the initial signatories of the Iran nuclear agreement and had the right to restore sanctions, and demanded that the rapid restoration of sanctions procedures be restarted to re-impose the embargo on Iran and a series of other sanctions. U.S. Special Representative for Iran Hooker declared on the 21st that the resumption of sanctions against Iran by the United Nations will put greater pressure on Iran to return it to the negotiating table "as a normal country."

　　Analysts generally believe that the Trump administration’s move is difficult to be effective, but may cause division within the Security Council. Because, once the resumption of sanctions against Iran is initiated, it will mean that Iran completely withdraws from the nuclear agreement. It also means that the historic nuclear agreement signed between Iran and the six parties on the Iranian nuclear issue in 2015 will be completely destroyed. This is something that the five relevant parties except the United States, including Iran, do not want to see.

　　"We firmly believe that the protection of the Iranian nuclear agreement is crucial." Ambassador Sauter, the deputy permanent representative of Germany to the United Nations, said on the 25th. "The nuclear agreement with Iran is imperfect, but it is still the international community's role in preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The best tool.” Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nibenzia, also expressed the hope that the decision of the President of the Security Council will be the end of this matter, and that the United States “will not continue on this road.”

Before the general election, the United States attracted attention to three developments in Iraq

　　Although the United States has failed successively in the Security Council’s Iraq-related proposals, Wang Jin, an associate researcher at the U.S. Institute of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, said in an interview with a reporter from China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily that before the US general election in November this year, the Trump administration Will continue to make a fuss about the Iranian nuclear issue, of which three trends are particularly interesting.

　　Wang Jin analyzed that in the next two months or so, the Trump administration will also make a fuss on UN Resolution 2231. On the one hand, the United States will repeatedly submit proposals on Iran-related sanctions in the Security Council, even if these proposals are opposed by Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia; on the other hand, the United States will also obstruct Iranian proposals by other permanent members. This process will deepen the division within the Security Council and accelerate the collapse of the Iran nuclear agreement.

　　Second, the Trump administration will continue to strengthen its “global isolation” of Iran. Wang Jin believes that Pompeo’s announcement on August 6 that the US State Department’s special envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, who represents the "main talker," has resigned, which is equivalent to ruling out the possibility of diplomatic activities between the United States and Iran this year. The replacement of Hooker by Elliott Abrams, who has a tough attitude towards Iran, means that Trump and Pompeo have eliminated the last opposition and policy fetters in terms of their Iranian policy. It can unscrupulously increase the "maximum pressure" and "diplomatic isolation" on Iran.

　　Third, before the general election, the current US government will definitely fight the "Middle East card" and "Iran card" to the end. Wang Jin believes that in the context of ineffective anti-epidemic and economic sluggishness, Trump eagerly hopes to divert domestic attention and make some “achievements” in diplomacy. The Middle East is one of the important directions of his efforts. Whether it is pushing for the signing of a normalization agreement between Israel and the UAE, or inviting Iraq’s new Prime Minister Kadimi to visit the White House, or continuing to make efforts on Iran issues, Trump is all about showing himself “very capable” before voters.　

　　Our newspaper, Beijing, August 26th

　　China Youth Daily·China Youth Daily reporter Chen Xiaoru Source: China Youth Daily