Western experts believe that Turkey, after its major discovery of the gas field in the Black Sea, will refrain from purchasing Russian gas, which will endanger the Turkish torrent project.
In a report published by the Russian "News Re" website, writer Lyubov Glazunova indicated that the newly discovered gas field in the Black Sea by the "Fateh" drillship is located near the borders of Romania and Bulgaria.
According to estimates, the reserves amount to about 320 billion cubic meters, and Ankara will continue research work in this area, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that the discovered reserves are only a part of the resources.
Until now, Turkey has been dependent on foreign gas supplies, including Russian, and shortly before the official announcement, sources affiliated with Reuters reported that between 800 billion and 26 trillion cubic meters of gas had been found in Turkish territorial waters, and it would suffice. These are Turkey's reserves for 20 years, which leads some to question the future of Turkey's supplies of Russian gas.
The writer quoted Christoph Merkel, managing director of Merkel Energy Consulting, as saying that "it is not surprising that new discoveries have appeared. Countries such as Bulgaria, Ukraine and Greece may be among the most interested in buying this gas if Turkey decides to export it, and depending on the size of the discovery." , It is expected that import operations through the Turkish Torrent Line will decline.
However, other analysts confirm that the price and demand for gas have reached their historical lowest levels today due to the conditions that the world is going through, so it is unclear how profitable Turkish gas production will be and whether Ankara will export it.
The competing market
As for the prominent analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, Igor Yushkov, he believes that it is necessary to wait for the official review of the Turkish gas field before talking about its profitability, and he adds that the reserves that have been found are not large in size, and it is possible to extract gas from there for a long time, but As a rule, annual production volumes will not be very large.
Given the depth of the Black Sea and the high production cost, many are wondering about the most profitable option for Turkey in the current circumstances, whether it is to buy gas or produce it in particular, which is inexpensive and unprofitable at the same time.
And Yushkov notes that nothing threatens Russian gas supplies in the short term. Russia faces other problems such as Ankara's alternative purchases and low prices in the market, which allows Turkey to buy a lot of LNG at low cost.
The expert expressed his confidence in the continued demand for the Turkish Torrent and Blue Stream projects, indicating that exploration for large reserves does not mean the immediate start of their extraction.
For example, a few years ago, one of the largest shale gas deposits was discovered in Poland, but until now, not a single cubic meter was extracted from it, and according to the expert, Turkish gas production could start after five or seven years, which will threaten Russia's interests at the time.
The discovery of gas fields for Turkey does not yield economic benefits only, but also geopolitical advantages, and this will allow it to achieve energy independence and ignore gas deals with Russia and other powers that buy energy from it.