Elections in the US: a referendum on Trump

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56% of Americans who have decided that they are going to vote for Joe Biden have as their main argument to justify their decision "that he is not Donald Trump." In turn, only 19% of the voters of President Donald Trump have as their main argument "that he is not Joe Biden . " In other words: what the United States is going to celebrate this year is not an election: it is a plebiscite. It's like Brexit: are you for or against? In this case, it is not belonging to the EU, but the president.

The previous data, published by the Pew Research Center - a non-profit organization that conducts studies on public opinion - reflects that, no matter how much you talk about the economy, the health system, appointments to the Supreme Court, or of the coronavirus - the four most important issues for Americans in these elections, according to Pew - everything can be summed up in two words: Donald Trump . And it is not new. As early as December, more than 90% of Democratic voters said they were going to vote for the candidate who came out of their party's primaries, whoever he was.

Donald Trump's referendum is logical, because the ability of the head of state and the US Government to appear on television, on the Internet, on social networks, in the press and whatever it takes is simply not of this world. According to Vanity Fair magazine , in April, when the US was beginning to suffer the first hit of Covid-19, the president postponed by an hour and a half a phone call with his Chinese counterpart , Xi Jinping - which, according to the quoted publication, took it very badly - to be interviewed by telephone by the host of the conservative television network Fox News Sean Hannity. Not only that: Hannity allowed herself the luxury of making Trump, famous for his impatience, have to wait 20 minutes for them to give way to go live, as if he were just another listener to a radio program asking for his favorite song.

This is how the US president has monopolized not so much the political agenda, but the entire information agenda -including the college football league, on whose opening he also gives his opinions on Twitter- of the US. It will also monopolize the Republican Convention from today, where it will be the absolute protagonist.

The results are spectacular. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost at least three million votes - of which a million went directly to Trump - from supporters of her rival on the Democratic left in the primaries, Bernie Sanders. This year, Joe Biden -centrist, like Hillary- will only lose about a million votes from Sanders supporters, of which few more than 300,000 will go to Trump, according to a poll by the Siena company for The New York newspaper Times .

While the loyalty of Sanders supporters to Biden is partly due to the former vice president with Obama getting along much better than Hillary personally with the left-wing senator, there is one fundamental difference: Donald Trump. After all, last December 89% of Sanders voters said they would vote for a Democratic candidate, whoever he was. The percentage, therefore, has hardly changed, despite the fact that, for the Sanderistas, Biden is the establishment that must be eliminated. But first, Donald Trump must be removed from the White House . The revolution can wait until Trump packs up.

Rejection of Trump among Democrats is offset by the unconditional support he receives among Republicans. 96% of voters who are registered in the census as members of that party or as independents acknowledge that they will vote for Trump.

Philias and phobias

If the Democratic repudiation of Trump reaches its own levels of phobia , the conservative support for the president is high, since it stood at 89% in May, according to Gallup. That leaves Trump behind George Bush father and son, but, unlike them, the current president is not leading any large-scale war and, moreover, he presides over an economy in free fall because of Covid .

Even so, support for Trump is situated on the religious ground among evangelical Christians, who are the basis of their vote. Then-White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders declared in February, referring to God, that "He wanted Donald Trump to be president and that is why he is." A month later, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, questioned about the possibility that Trump is a 21st-century version of Old Testament Queen Esther , who Yahweh put in power to defend Israel from the Persians, He replied, "As a Christian, I think that is certainly possible." Former Texas Governor and former Energy Secretary Rick Perry (resigned due to his involvement in Ukrainegate ) has compared Trump to King David of Israel.

Thus, on November 3, the United States faces a referendum. Or an electoral battle between good and evil.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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