In an article in Foreign Policy, researcher Anas al-Qumati asked: Can Libya be divided?
Al-Qumati, founder of the Sadiq Institute in Tripoli and a visiting fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, believes that the strongman of eastern Libya, retired Major General Khalifa Haftar, has lost the initiative and it appears that the only option left for his supporters is to divide the country.
The writer referred to the failed attack launched by the leader of the so-called Libyan National Army over a period of 14 months to seize the Libyan capital, Tripoli, and the removal of the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord, and the loss of his forces, which took 6 years to seize them, as his defeat began when the Russian mercenaries who support his forces were seen. They flee the front lines last June, before their entire rear line from Tripoli to Sirte suddenly collapses.
In the face of clear military defeat and the hesitation of international supporters and the political process that he is no longer leading, it seems that Haftar's future and Libya's future as a unified country is at stake.
Al-Qumati commented that when Haftar began losing ground, his political behavior appeared increasingly desperate, and his focus shifted to his political destiny and personal interest, when he suddenly retracted his promise to launch the largest air campaign in Libya's history against the Government of National Accord, and declared his desire for a new and comprehensive peace process and a return to talks. Political.
Loss of international support The fragmentation of Haftar's forces revealed that he has not led a real army, and he does not even trust the forces under his command enough to ask them to fight on his behalf
He said that behind these abnormal behavior on the part of Haftar is a group of international and local factors that have revealed his weakness, and that may ultimately lead to his demise.
For Haftar, the Tripoli campaign was supposed to be a quick ground operation to topple the Government of National Accord, which would make him the de facto leader of Libya.
Instead - as the writer says - the campaign lasted for more than 14 months, during which the position of the Government of National Accord was strengthened after receiving military support from Turkey, and Haftar's operation became very expensive for his military supporters (Egypt, the Emirates and Russia) who provided him with thousands of tons of weapons, air defense and air strikes. Without being able to gain ground for him.
The loss of international support also revealed the fragmentation of Haftar's forces, and showed that he did not lead a real army, and he does not even trust the forces under his command enough to ask them to fight on his behalf.
With Haftar gone and the military deadlock unlikely, it appears that the best option for his former supporters is to divide the country. The tribal groups and militias that form the basis of Haftler's forces declared themselves autonomous in 2013, so there is definitely a desire to divide the land.
Al-Qumati pointed out that since the United Nations established the Government of National Accord in 2016, eastern Libya has slipped towards autonomy through the use of a parallel central bank using a fake Russian printed currency and established its own government, and even established separate diplomatic relations with the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, for example.
Al-Qumati concluded his article that the defeat of Haftar in Tripoli opened a new round of political uncertainty in Libya, and the rules of the game seem to have changed significantly. Egypt, Russia, and the UAE are committed to maintaining a foothold in the country. But their loss of confidence in Haftar means that they have little hope of extending their influence over the entire country. Until peace talks take place, we expect Haftar's former allies to reduce their losses and work to divide eastern Libya.