(Economic Observation) The deadline is approaching, the new round of negotiations between the UK and Europe is still difficult to break the ice
China News Service, Beijing, August 19 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) The UK and the EU will hold a new round of negotiations on the 18th local time. There is little time left for both parties to bargain, but there is no hope of a solution to a series of differences.
Data map: On January 29, local time, the European Parliament approved the "Brexit" agreement. The picture shows the parliamentarians holding high the banner of "Forever Unity" after the voting. China News Agency issued photos for EU
In the first round of face-to-face negotiations after the epidemic that ended on July 2, Britain and the EU agreed to hold multiple rounds of negotiations from July to early August, and speed up the pace of negotiations, in order to achieve a breakthrough before this fall. However, many intensive negotiations have not yielded much substantial progress. The two sides still have serious differences on core issues such as fisheries and fair competition.
For example, the United Kingdom hopes to regain control of the fishery resources in its own seas, giving priority to British fishing boats, and negotiates quotas with the European Union each year based on the fishery resources; while EU member states such as France, Belgium and Portugal hope to have access to fishing boats. Maintain the status quo in terms of income and quotas.
The bigger "blockers" are those that concern the core interests of both parties, such as whether the UK should accept EU standards in the field of fair competition. Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that reaching an agreement in these areas requires both parties to make substantive concessions, involving more areas and larger-scale interest adjustments, which is very difficult.
Wang Mingjin, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at Renmin University of China, also said that the core of Brexit is to retrieve its own control and get rid of the restrictions of various EU rules. It does not hope that after Brexit there will be any form of conflict with EU rules and standards. The docking. Therefore, on this issue, the United Kingdom expects it will be difficult to compromise with the EU.
According to foreign media reports, both Britain and Europe have not made enough concessions and are waiting for each other to move closer to themselves. After the previous negotiations in London ended, Barnier, the chief negotiator of the European Union, complained that Britain had not shown “willingness to break the deadlock” on difficult issues. Britain’s chief negotiator, Frost, responded that the EU’s proposal to break the deadlock "failed to comply with the basic principles we have repeatedly stated clearly."
Earlier, a spokesperson for the European Commission stated that an agreement needs to be reached "at the latest" by October. Barnier went further and said that it "must" reach an agreement by this date so that it can be approved before the end of the transition period for Brexit in December.
In the next few weeks, achieving the goals that have not been achieved since March this year will be a huge challenge for both Britain and Europe.
According to the previous joint statement issued by the UK and Europe, if a trade agreement cannot be reached during the transition period of Brexit and the transition period is no longer extended, the UK and Europe will return to trade under the framework of the World Trade Organization. Analysts believe that considering that the economies of the United Kingdom and the European Union have been hit hard by the epidemic, neither can withstand the serious consequences of the inability to reach a trade agreement. It is expected that the agreement will eventually be reached.
In Cui Hongjian’s view, over time, Britain and Europe, especially the European Union, will be more willing to reach an agreement. The two sides may reach a partial rather than comprehensive agreement within this year, that is, take the lead in the areas most closely related to the interests of both parties. When a breakthrough is made, other issues will be obscured or left for further negotiation.
Foster, the editor-in-chief of the European edition of the British "Daily Telegraph" also commented that in order to avoid desperation, Britain and Europe may reach an incomplete trade agreement, and the other parts of the agreement may be packaged into an "institutional framework" to be left. To be resolved later. However, this means that it is difficult for companies to adapt to the new regulatory system in a short time.
However, some people believe that if the UK believes that the cost of a trade association with the EU exceeds the benefits of entering the EU single market, it is likely to choose a “hard Brexit” in accordance with WTO terms.
Wang Mingjin said that British Prime Minister Johnson had emphasized that Britain would not maintain EU standards in terms of state subsidies and labor standards in order to reach a new Brexit agreement with the EU. This in fact shows that Johnson does not rule out the possibility of a "hard Brexit". Sex. "It can be expected that with one party resolutely leaving and the other resolutely not making concessions, it will be very difficult for Britain and Europe to reshape bilateral economic relations." (End)