(Economic Observation) Experts analyze China's food security
China News Service, Beijing, August 19 (Reporter Chen Su) The "China Rural Development Report 2020" recently released by the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences shows that by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (about 2025), China may have 1.3 There is a grain gap of about 100 million tons, of which cereals (the three major staple foods) are about 25 million tons. The topic of food security has once again set off an upsurge.
What is the current situation of China's food security? A reporter from China News Agency interviewed many experts on this matter. Experts said that China’s food security is now fully guaranteed, but long-term concerns also need to be paid attention to.
Zhang Hongyu, deputy dean of the China Rural Research Institute of Tsinghua University, said that China’s grain has achieved "16 consecutive years of continuous growth." In 2019, China’s total grain production reached 664 million tons, and the per capita share exceeded 474 kg, which is higher than the international average of 400 kg per capita. Food security standard line.
Since the beginning of this year, with the double blow of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and floods, has China's food production been affected?
The National Bureau of Statistics announced on August 14 that China continued to achieve a bumper harvest of summer grains this year, with output increased by 0.9% over the previous year, a record high. Lay a good foundation for the annual grain harvest.
Jiang Wenlai, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that the impact of the flood is only a certain loss in the rain belt area, and more rain is beneficial to grain production in arid areas. It is expected that this year's grain output will not be lower than last year.
Regarding the forecast of the 130 million tons of grain gap and the 25 million tons of grain gap proposed by the "China Rural Development Report 2020", experts said that although China’s food security is guaranteed, in the long run, there are some hidden worries and weaknesses. Need attention.
Li Zhou, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that China currently imports more than 100 million tons of soybeans and soybean-derived oils, which constitute the main part of the grain gap. Although the staple food gap is predicted to be 25 million tons, it is still not enough. 5% of consumption is consistent with China’s pursuit of a self-sufficiency rate of more than 95% in cereals. However, this forecast also reminds China of the need to further increase grain production capacity.
Five international organizations, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Food Program, released reports in July that predicted that the world will face the worst food crisis in at least 50 years. Experts pointed out that although China's grain self-sufficiency rate is currently as high as 97%, in the face of the unfavorable international situation, China also needs to tighten the string of food security even more.
Zhang Hongyu said that China is a populous country, accounting for 20% of the world's population, and ensuring the safety of rations is critical. Under the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the international situation is complex and changeable. Food exporting countries in the world may close or tighten their export valves at any time, aggravating global market turmoil and leading to imbalances in global food supply and demand. In this special period, China cannot be taken lightly and needs to be strengthened. National food security.
“In the future, China’s dependence on foreign food supply will continue to rise.” Ye Xingqing, director of the Rural Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council of China, said that in the face of the unfavorable international situation, it is necessary to continue to promote the diversification of imports of grain, especially feed grain, and increase the global The stability and reliability of the supply chain.
In addition to the external situation, there are also some hidden concerns about China's grain production, such as the abandonment of cultivated land, the conversion of cash crops, the conversion of farmland to forests, and the decline of farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain.
Jiang Wenlai said that land transfer and contracting in rural China is currently very popular. Since planting cash crops is more profitable than growing grain, it is a relatively common phenomenon for new business entities that have contracted large tracts of land to change cash crops. To a certain extent, the increase in grain yield has offset the impact of the reduction in planting area. At present, it has little impact on food security, but it still needs to arouse attention. It is necessary to implement the guarantee of food security on the plots to add a lock to food production.
"To ensure the total food security, we must first ensure the land element." Zhang Hongyu said that ensuring the red line of 1.8 billion mu of arable land must be long-term and insurmountable under any circumstances. Industrialization and urbanization are advanced, and the increase in construction land must be based on the basic principle of revitalizing the stock. , Can not easily make ideas on increments. It is also necessary to further improve the technological, human and policy elements of grain production, vigorously develop modern agriculture, give full play to the role of policies to increase production and ensure supply, protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain, achieve a steady increase in total grain volume, and ensure long-term food security in China. (Finish)