Russia expert: "Lukashenko's government hangs in the balance"

The political uprising that is currently taking place in Belarus is historic, according to Martin Kragh, head of the Russia and Eurasia program at the UI.

- What we see is a new Belarusian national identity that is taking shape. A people that has been ruled under a dictatorship for more than 25 years. They want to throw off this shock and build a new nation on the principle of democracy, he says.

It is clear that Lukashenko feels pressured and that he is trying to use all means to maintain power, says Kragh.

In a speech on Sunday, the president claimed that NATO was gathering military resources along the Belarusian border and also said that Russia was ready to support the regime if needed.

- None of this may actually be on the map other than in his own head, but it shows how desperate he is.

- His rule hangs on a fragile thread.

The pressure on the president is great, both from his own people and from abroad. But Martin Kragh does not think it is enough to bring about a change of power in the country.

- Russia is likely to play an important role. If Russia chooses to try to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict, it is possible that it is the easiest thing for Lukashenko to agree to, he says.

Julia Lapitskii, political scientist and project manager at the Swedish Institute, describes the mood in the capital Minsk as euphoric. She believes the protests will continue until the president resigns.

- I do not think people will give up. They were so badly affected by the images of people being released from custody. They had been beaten for hours, and there are still some missing, she says.

What will happen politically in the next few days?

- It is hard to say. There is no policy in Belarus in the sense that it has in Sweden. There is only Lukashenko. Parliament has a more or less decorative function. So it's all about whether Lukashenko stays or leaves.