Protest in Belarus: Moscow is monitoring the situation closely

Text by: Étienne Bouche

3 min

The protest movement continues in Belarus after the highly contested re-election of Alexander Lukashenko, at the head of this country since 1994. The presidential election took place there in an atmosphere of great tension. In Moscow, this political instability is being followed with particular attention.

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From our correspondent in Moscow,

Since the presidential elections in Belarus, the main opposition figures have been arrested or prevented from competing. Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa, who embodied in this election the rejection of Lukashenko, is now in Lithuania.  Daily demonstrations are harshly repressed. In Moscow, this political instability is being followed with particular attention.

If the news of recent days is of great interest to Moscow, it is because Belarusians are not considered foreigners. They mostly speak the same language and share many historical and cultural references. Political unrest is widely covered by the media. And the public television stations were not sure what tone to adopt, as if they were waiting to know the official position of the state on the events.

Moscow's position difficult to pin down

The Kremlin did not show overwhelming enthusiasm when the official results were announced. It should be noted that beyond the agreed statements, relations between Moscow and Minsk have become strained. These tensions can be explained by trade disputes, but above all because Lukashenko is reluctant to accept the political integration project initiated by the Kremlin.

The outgoing president also played this card during the campaign. He openly accused Russia of attempted interference and presented his competitors as Russian agents. To this, Russian officials did not wish to add fuel to the fire.

Now that Lukashenko is facing a serious protest movement, Moscow's position is difficult to pin down. Russian power is haunted by instability and would have done well without this embarrassing image of an immutable president disowned by the street. But his position seems above all pragmatic. Moscow intends to defend its interests in the bilateral relationship, regardless of its interlocutor.

Do not see the Ukrainian scenario repeat itself

It is obvious that the Kremlin has the Ukrainian scenario in mind and does not wish to see it repeated under any circumstances. The spokeswoman for Russian diplomacy pointed out this Thursday, August 13, attempts at foreign interference in Belarus. However, the Russian authorities do not provide official support to Lukashenko.

On this point the situation differs from the Ukrainian case of 2014. The then president, Viktor Yanukovych, had the legitimacy of the election with him. Supporting today a widely criticized Lukashenko appears very risky. As the Belarusian leader can no longer count on a rapprochement with the Europeans , Moscow could use the international isolation of Minsk as a leverage of its strategy of coercion.

► See also: Belarus: emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers

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• Belarus
• Russia
• Vladimir Poutine
• Alexander Lukashenko

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