Belarus: "The more violent the repression, the more difficult it will be for the EU to play it safe"

Will the anger of the Belarusians wake up the EU? For the fourth consecutive day, thousands of demonstrators marched, Wednesday August 12, in several major cities of Belarus to protest against the re-election of Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994. The strong man of Minsk was re-elected on Sunday. with 80% of the vote against her rival Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, despite accusations of massive fraud.

Since then, each night, the repression has become more and more violent. Despite peaceful protests, the government immediately responded with force, firing rubber bullets, using water cannons and batons, and cutting off access to websites in an attempt to silence the protest. On Wednesday, the authorities announced the death of a 25-year-old protester, arrested during a rally in Goumel in the south of the country. This is the second officially recorded death since the start of the protest movement.

Nearly 7,000 people were arrested across the country, without knowing how many are being held. "This is the first time that the regime has gone so far. Contrary to what we have seen in the past, the violence has become arbitrary. It no longer targets only public opponents but ordinary citizens", underlines Alexandra Goujon , political scientist, specialist in Belarus and teacher at Science Po Paris, contacted by France 24.

"The EU does not like adopting sanctions"

Faced with this outbreak of violence, European foreign ministers will meet on Friday August 14 to discuss possible sanctions against the former Soviet republic. But the adoption of retaliatory measures does not seem to be unanimous among the 27 and no sanction can be implemented without the unanimous support of the member states.

"The European Union is not a structure that likes to adopt sanctions. Most of the time, it does so as a last resort because these measures necessarily lead to a stiffening of relations. However, its objective is not that Belarus be pointed out, but that it is transformed. In addition, many States are convinced that foreign sanctions have never been used to bend a regime ", explains the specialist.

However, it is difficult to close our eyes to these last nights of violence. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas recalled on Tuesday that the 27 had lifted some of the sanctions in 2016 against Belarus "because the country had taken steps in the right direction in the past." From now on, "we are going to have to discuss very seriously the possibility of reversing the situation given the context of the last few weeks, and especially of these last days". More reserved, his Dutch counterpart, Stefan Block, considered for his part that it was important to avoid taking measures that could negatively affect the Belarusian population.

An argument that only holds true, according to Alexandra Goujon. "Alexander Lukashenko never had a pro-European policy. He did not want to maintain deeper economic ties with the EU, his main trading partners being Russia and Ukraine. Even when sanctions were taken in 2004 against the regime, they did not imply an economic embargo, the population was therefore not really affected ", nuance the political scientist.

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For now, Belarus is still under an embargo on the sale of arms and equipment that can be used for repression. Likewise, four people involved in two unsolved disappearances are still banned from staying in the EU.

Divergent approaches

If the 27 agreed by judging the evolution of the situation "very serious" in Belarus, the approaches of each state also diverge according to their history or their situation, notes Alexandra Goujon. "Poland, which has asked for a swift response to come to the aid of Belarusian opponents, is taking a firmer stance because it has always defended the political freedoms of its neighboring countries in the past."

"Conversely, some states like Hungary will be more reluctant to vote sanctions, which they believe would be a form of interference and a proof of non-respect for the sovereignty of a country," he adds. she.

Added to this is the fear of seeing his country in turn hit with sanctions. "Hungarian leader Viktor Orban has been carrying out reforms threatening the rule of law for years. It is therefore easy to imagine that he will not give the green light to weaken a state even though his own policies are possibly reprehensible. "

So reaching a quick deal for the 27 seems tricky to say the least. Months of negotiations were needed to reach a consensus in the case of Russia during the Ukrainian conflict in 2014. But the massive use of social networks by citizens, despite the network cuts, and international pressure could nonetheless awaken European stagnation. "The more violent the repression, the more difficult it will be for the EU to play it safe and not respond on time," concludes the academic.

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