Invited Wednesday from Europe 1, Florent Parmentier, secretary general of Cevipof Science Po, returned to the popular protest which is currently shaking Belarus, after the contested re-election of President Alexandre Loukachenko. 

INTERVIEW

Thousands of arrests and live ammunition on demonstrators: since Sunday, Belarus has been shaken by an unprecedented mobilization of part of the population. In question, the contested re-election of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has led this former Soviet republic with an iron fist since 1994, for a 6th term. The head of state was given the lead with almost 80% of the vote, while his main opponent, opponent Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, left the country for Lithuania. Invited Wednesday from Europe 1, Florent Parmentier, secretary general of Cevipof of Sciences Po, returned to the situation on the spot, and commented on the results, which he describes as "absolute lie".

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Since his first election in 1994, "so much has changed in the region, so much Lukashenko has had a policy that has allowed him to stay in power, with so far more limited excesses than those we have seen recently" , recalls the researcher. This longevity has in particular been made possible, he explains, by "its ability to rely on armed forces". But also because "it has been able to rely on a certain number of services rendered to the population to be able to last". For example, in the country, "the infant mortality rate is lower than that of the United Kingdom", while the "per capita income is twice as high" as that of the neighboring Ukraine. 

How can the dispute last? 

Today, while the demonstrators contest the results of the election, Florent Parmentier believes that this score of 80% is "an absolute lie", and "would be much closer to 25 or 30%". 

But will this popular movement be able to last? For Florent Parmentier, three questions arise. That of "the strength of the demonstrators", that of "the support that the outside can bring", and finally that of "the behavior of the state itself". And Florent Parmentier to question: "Within the police, the intelligence services, various Belarusian institutions, will there be some of the elites who will say: 'That's enough, I won't shoot the crowd? '? "