The prestigious FiveThirtyEight election forecasting site believes the gap in support for incumbent President Donald Trump and Democrat Challenger Joe Biden will level off in the U.S. as the November election sends.
At the moment, Biden is clearly leading the polls. FiveThirtyEight’s estimate is that Biden will win the election with a 71 percent probability.
According to the site, Biden has an 81 percent chance of garnering more votes nationwide, but Trump is likely to reap a small advantage from the state-elected constituency.
There is still a small eternity journey to the third of November in the crown of politics, the forecast site recalls.
Joe Biden did not nominate his vice presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, until Tuesday. According to the site, Trump clearly has a chance to win despite the inquiries.
- If you don't take the 29 percent probability seriously, I don't know what to say, except that there would be one poker game in Zoom to which I would be happy to invite you, Nate Silver, who prepared the analysis for the forecast page, writes.
In the last election, forecasts and polls were ready to crown Hillary Clinton as head of state, but the opposite happened. Some predictions gave Clinton a 99 percent probability of winning the eve of the election. FiveThirtyEight's last pre-election forecast was 71-29 for Clinton, the same as today's forecast for Biden.
In recent decades, a few August poll leaders have experienced a bitter defeat in the November election. After Trump’s victory, the stark difference between reality and forecasts raised questions about how forecasts work. FiveThirtyEight says it has developed metrics in four years.
Part of the reason for the difficulty of anticipation is the complex way of voting, in which the largest catch does not necessarily lead to the White House, but more importantly to win the majority of individual states in favor by at least one vote.
Libra states are valued in the unpredictable. Hillary Clinton, who was a hair's breadth away from the president's oval office, knows Al Gorek.
Biden currently leads in many states that Clinton lost: Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio, and another Nebraska constituency. This, according to FiveThirtyEight, gives strong support to Democratic politicians.
If, in addition to the areas mentioned above, Biden were to win the states that Clinton won, he would win 352 voters in his favor when 270 are needed to win the election. In Texas, Georgia, Iowa, and Maine in the second constituency, men are almost level.
Nebraska and Maine differ from other states in that they distribute votes by constituency. There are two different regions in Maine and three in Nebraska to win. There are a total of 538 voters and 50 states.
Crystal balls are currently particularly fuzzy due to the corona pandemic. However, increased confrontation has reduced the number of mobile voters, which is why the site says its own predictions have hit a rare right recently. The increase in confrontation has, according to the site, reduced the impact of the general economic situation on the vote.
The corona epidemic in the United States on the brink is clearly reducing the popularity of the incumbent president at the moment, but if the situation improves, Trump’s support will rise at the same time. The Black Lives Matter movement is another significant factor linked to Trump’s popularity.
Uncertainty has also been calculated in the forecast over time. If the algorithm were adjusted so that the election would be held on August 12 instead of November, the algorithm would give Joe Biden a significantly higher 93 percent probability of winning.
On the other hand, some factors that may have a large impact are hardly emphasized in the forecast. One of these factors is the fact that challenging the incumbent president has almost invariably proved difficult throughout history.