On Tuesday, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu held a press conference with the US Secretary of Health. During the meeting, Wu warned of increased pressure from China.

Björn Jerdén, head of the Asia program at the Foreign Policy Institute, explains that China mainly pressures Taiwan by trying to isolate them from international contexts and organizations.

- This is partly a result of the pandemic. The US visit has a background in that Taiwan is not allowed to participate in the World Health Organization's cooperation, and it lobbies the US for Taiwan to be allowed to do - even if China opposes, he tells SVT News.

Excluded from WHO

The WHO's approach to Taiwan has become a topical issue during the corona crisis. In a pandemic that affects the whole world, the state has been excluded from international health cooperation, because China does not see Taiwan as independent.

The United States has for several months criticized the WHO for giving in to Chinese pressure, and it is also mentioned as one of the reasons behind Trump's previous decision to freeze contributions to the organization. But the US Secretary of Health's visit may also have links to this autumn's presidential election.

- Part of the tactics for Trump's election campaign is to pressure China in different ways. We should not rule out that there may be even higher American representatives visiting Taiwan, says Jerdén.

Do not believe in conflict

Björn Jerdén sees no evidence that there will be a military conflict in the next few years. Rather, it is about China being able to step up its efforts to exclude Taiwan internationally.

- If they succeed in invading Taiwan, they would have to control an island with 23 million inhabitants where the majority are critical of this. There is a risk of resistance movements, guerrilla warfare and economic sanctions, and it would greatly damage China's reputation internationally, he says, and continues:

- If Taiwan declares independence, China has a law that they must intervene, but as long as the status quo remains, I do not see why anything should change.