Amid popular demonstrations in Beirut, 5 days after the port explosion; The resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab came to ask questions about its causes and the outcome of the situation afterwards, especially as it came after his call for early elections, and hours after the government decided to refer the blast file to the country's highest judicial council that looks into crimes of state security.
From the viewpoint of writer and political analyst Tawfiq Shoman (who is close to Hezbollah), the resignation of Diab's government "did not come as a result of street pressure, but rather as a result of lifting the political cover on him by the trio: Hezbollah, Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement, the official sponsor of the resigned government."
Shoman tells Al-Jazeera Net, "It is a process of dismissal, not a resignation, after Hezbollah and its allies lifted the political cover on Diab for his reversal of the agreement he had concluded with his allies, through his call for early parliamentary elections, which led to the successive resignations of his cabinet ministers from both the Amal movement and the movement." Free Patriot. "
He added, "Diab tried to show by adopting the protesters' demand, and he met them in the middle of the road by calling for early parliamentary elections, a proposal that required national consensus, and he violated the agreement with his allies who brought him as prime minister, which led to the agreement being broken with him, and he had no choice but to submit His resignation. "
The impossible mission,
whatever the reasons that led to the resignation of Diab's government, the circumstance in which the resignation came after the Beirut explosion and the high level of popular, economic, political and external pressure, and pending the issuance of the international court ruling in the case of the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on August 18th. He pays the question about the alternative that will take upon himself to take on this "impossible" task in Lebanon.
Or will the country enter a phase of the long vacuum with the caretaker government, despite the French proposal made by President Emmanuel Macron, on his visit to Beirut, to call for a government of national unity?
The former Lebanese MP Faris Saeed (one of the most prominent faces of the March 14 forces against Hezbollah) considers that the most prominent event today in Lebanon is the Beirut bombing, "which forced everyone - on top of them Hezbollah - to change the internal method."
Said told Al-Jazeera Net, "Hezbollah made a concession at home by abandoning the Diab government, and it may be forced to accept a neutral transitional government, and it is preparing to make external concessions, the features of which will be evident in the next stage at the level of demarcating the borders with Israel."
He believes that the priority is to form a government quickly before the date of Macron's second visit to Lebanon on September 1, but "there is great difficulty in finding someone who bears this responsibility, or consensus around him." If the international and regional calculations agree, "Saad Hariri may come as prime minister."
Initial external pressure in the formation of any future government - according to Saeed - is based on the necessity to demand the opening of an international investigation into the Beirut bombing, "because any other internal investigation is of doubtful transparency, which will be the subject of disagreement between political forces, which means that the next government, if formed It will hardly be able to fight the Corona epidemic. "
On the level of the international court ruling on the assassination of Hariri, Saeed considers that it will "strip Hezbollah, and it will have major repercussions on the political developments in the country, at a time when Hezbollah is under the pressure of Iranian response to American demands."
So, will Lebanon go through the stage of pressure from foreign interference to extract additional concessions from Hezbollah before forming a new government? Tawfiq Shoman replies that "any settlement needs mutual concessions between its parties, and France recognized Hezbollah by inviting its representative, MP Muhammad Raad, to attend the meeting with Macron, which was initially welcomed based on its recognition of his role." However, "it is still too early to talk about the nature of these concessions, because the features of the settlement are not yet clear, and it cannot be considered that Hezbollah has made any concession to the international community," according to Shoman.
Will Hariri come back?
The writer and political analyst Johnny Mounir does not agree with those who see the return of Saad Hariri, and considers that "Hezbollah made a major concession to the international community in the file of maritime border demarcation last week." The Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (who is an ally of Hezbollah) said that "the talks With the Americans, the file of demarcating the maritime borders with Israel has come to its conclusion. " And the outcome of these talks is expected to be clarified by the upcoming visit of US Under Secretary of State David Hale to Lebanon this week.
Mounir tells Al-Jazeera Net, "What Berri said clearly means offering a concession to the Americans in this regard, and he comes to Lebanon with a mission to inspect the file of maritime border demarcation, and he will pass to Paris before Lebanon, which means that he will also discuss the file of forming the government, and he may not mind forming a unity government." Wataniya includes Hezbollah after it has paid for the demarcation of the maritime borders, but the course of affairs in the country confirms that there is no government in the near future.
The problem, according to Munir, is that "Hezbollah wants the return of Saad Hariri, while the President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, does not accept Hariri's return unless it is unconditional, which means that the crisis is between the allies themselves."