The US National Nuclear Security Administration (part of the US Department of Energy) and the US Department of Defense currently do not take into account the scenario according to which the START III Treaty will not be extended, in their calculations of the necessary funding for the coming years. This is stated in the report of the US Audit Office, which RT got acquainted with.

The corresponding report was prepared after the appeal of Democratic Senators Dianne Feinstein and Edward Markey to the head of the oversight department, the state controller Jean Dodaro. Thus, the senators inquired how the expiration of START III will affect the formation of the budget of the National Nuclear Safety Administration in the future.

In response to the appeal of Feinstein and Marka, representatives of the Accounts Chamber said that the department did not analyze the possible consequences that would have to be faced if the agreement expired. In shaping its future policy and budget, the management proceeds from the assumption that the Russian-American agreement will be extended.

“The National Nuclear Safety Administration has not yet considered how the possible non-extension of the START III Treaty will affect the forecasts, on the basis of which a general list of official purchases is built, as well as the projections of financing the program for future years, set out in the justification for the budget for 2021. The department stated that the nuclear safety program for the coming years is based on the current requirements set by the Ministry of Defense and does not take into account other scenarios, such as the possible termination of the START III Treaty, ”the document says.

The Pentagon, as the Accounts Chamber added, proceeds from similar considerations.

"According to officials of the Ministry of Defense, the department is making its plans based on the assumption that the START III Treaty will be extended, and currently it does not plan to change the existing structure of forces," the report says.

Recall that Feinstein and Markey at the end of June spoke in favor of the extension of START III. They expressed their position in a letter sent to the White House, and a bill submitted to Congress.

According to the senators, the extension of the agreement will provide greater "predictability" in the development of the situation in the field of arms control while Washington is engaged in replacing obsolete nuclear weapons, and will also limit the number of Russian strategic forces until at least 2026.

  • U.S. Democratic Senators Dianne Feinstein and Edward Markey
  • Reuters
  • © AFP

Lack of consensus

In the United States, there is no unanimous point of view regarding START III, which is one of the building blocks of the modern global security system. This is the opinion of Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State Pedagogical University.

In his opinion, unlike ex-US President Barack Obama and his fellow party members, the current leader of the country, Donald Trump, does not consider the agreement "any significant document and has repeatedly, directly or indirectly, stated the need to withdraw from the treaty."

In addition, Shapovalov also mentioned the interests of representatives of the American military-industrial complex in the situation around the agreement. In this context, he called START III "a treaty that sets a certain constraining framework for their unbridled appetites."

According to Vadim Kozyulin, a professor at the Academy of Military Sciences, the lack of Pentagon plans in the event of the expiration of START III allows us to hope that Washington will nevertheless decide not to break the agreement. He also suggested that by talking about its intention not to renew the treaty, the United States may try to put pressure on Moscow in negotiations on arms control.

"If Russia behaves well - this is how they see the situation - then the United States will extend the agreement, and if it refuses to have a" constructive "conversation, then Washington will threaten her that it will not extend the agreement," the expert explained.

  • Former Russian and US presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama sign the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. Prague, 2010
  • Reuters
  • © Jason Reed

Long negotiations

Meanwhile, the Russian side has repeatedly called on the United States to extend the treaty. So far, however, negotiations on this issue have led nowhere. 

Washington insists on China joining the agreement. Both Russia and the PRC are against such a step. In particular, Beijing emphasizes that the size of the Chinese side's nuclear arsenal is incomparable with those of the United States and the Russian Federation. 

The Russian Foreign Ministry believes that by setting such conditions, the United States is trying to "bury" the current START III.

“On the American side, attempts are being made to link the issue of extending the START Treaty with issues that are not related to its subject matter, to its content. In particular, we are talking about the development of control and restrictive measures against the military programs of the PRC, which, as you know, the Chinese strongly object. All this is very similar to the attempts of the United States ... to bury the treaty, but at the same time save face and shift the responsibility onto Russia and the PRC, "said Maria Zakharova, spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Today, as Russian Ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov specified, Moscow does not see "positive signals" from the United States on the issue of extending the treaty. Meanwhile, such a decision would avoid the "collapse" of the control and restrictive mechanisms in the nuclear missile sphere and "gain time to study possible further approaches to arms control," the Russian Foreign Ministry explained.

Note that Moscow and Washington continue to discuss arms control issues in different formats and at different levels. So, on July 23, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump held telephone talks, during which they raised the problem of START III. 

A month earlier, another round of talks on strategic stability with the participation of the Russian and American delegations led by Sergei Ryabkov and the US President's Special Representative for Arms Control Marshall Billingsley, respectively, ended. The event took place in Vienna and lasted about ten hours.

According to Ryabkov, the parties "listened and heard" each other, but "did not get closer on fundamental issues."

If START III is not prolonged, the world will become less secure, as “the last document left over from the arms control system will disappear,” Vadim Kozyulin said. If this scenario is realized, according to the expert, "the next day the tragedy will not happen," however, over time, the US and Russia will accumulate suspicions about each other.

In turn, Vladimir Shapovalov suggested thatthe absence of START III, on the one hand, will stimulate the development of nuclear weapons in those states that currently have nuclear arsenals.

“On the other hand, there will be a temptation for those countries that do not yet have nuclear weapons to obtain these technologies in order to solve their foreign policy tasks. The absence of START III can open a Pandora's box ... The world will become less stable, less secure, and the likelihood of sliding towards a nuclear catastrophe will increase significantly, ”he concluded.