Washington (AFP)

The United States has, in 17 days, gone from four to five million cases of Covid-19, and the virus has never circulated so much in the territory, in urban as in rural areas. Here is the state of play of the American epidemic, and the challenges of the coming months.

- The less bad news

After a rebound in infections that started in June in much of the United States, following a precipitous deconfinement, the country reached a peak of new cases in mid-July (more than 70,000 per day), but a turning point is Appeared: In the past seven days, an average of 55,000 new daily cases have been detected. This decrease remains to be proven over time, as it is undoubtedly influenced by a recent drop in the number of tests, linked to bad weather.

Faced with the rebound, states have imposed the wearing of masks, more actively recommended barrier gestures and closed part of the economy, which seems to have borne fruit (for example in Arizona).

On the death side, the United States has never returned to the peak of spring, when one in five New Yorkers has been infected. The rejuvenation of the cases, the authorization of two therapeutic treatments and the experience of the hospitals clearly contribute to the lower mortality.

But since the end of July, the country has remained on a plateau of a thousand daily deaths attributed to the coronavirus.

- The bad news

The American epidemic remains globally at an alarming level, with a very high incidence in a large part of the territory. Eleven states, including Texas and most of the South, are classified as active hotbeds and tinged with red on the CovidActNow map, based on five indicators. Only about fifteen states, mostly in the Northeast, are recording weak growth or controlling the epidemic.

Despite the active circulation of the virus, states like Mississippi and Georgia reopened schools in August, creating new homes and portending more.

Nearly 100,000 children were also infected just before the start of the school year, in the last fortnight of July, according to an analysis by the American Academy of Pediatrics, or + 40% in two weeks.

Models predict that each day through the end of August will see another 1,000 deaths or slightly less, for an average total death toll of 181,000 as of Aug. 29, according to the University of Massachusetts Forecast Hub.

At least two models predict the country will pass the 200,000 death threshold in mid-September.

- What return?

The causes of the rebound in June and July have been established, according to Anthony Fauci, the US government's highest expert in infectious diseases: deconfinement, managed state by state and under pressure from Donald Trump, was done by skipping steps, without waiting that the epidemic curve has returned to a low and manageable level - with the notable exception of New York.

The expert repeats in every interview that all Americans must discipline themselves, avoid crowded places and wear a mask.

"We have a problem in our country. When everyone has to make the same effort at the same time, if there is a single weak link that does not do it, we never get to the end", said he regretted Friday.

"We are not doomed to total re-containment, provided we do the right thing," warned Dr Fauci.

But the disorder of the start of the school year, virtual or face-to-face depending on the area, recalls the disorganization of the start of the pandemic, when masks, artificial respirators and tests were missing, and while Donald Trump had decided to delegate the response to the States.

"We have seen the effects of the lack of federal leadership at the beginning with protective equipment, we continue to see the consequences on screening, and now it appears for educational policy", deplores Thomas Tsai, expert of Harvard.

Donald Trump's priority, to get out of the health crisis, is rather to accelerate the discovery of treatments and, above all, of a vaccine, which he hopes before the presidential election on November 3. His government has spent, according to AFP calculations, more than nine billion dollars on treatments and vaccines to date.

© 2020 AFP