• Work, Istat: in June the unemployment rate rises to 8.8%, among young people 27.6%
  • Istat: GDP falls by 12.4% in the second quarter: to the lowest since 1995
  • Istat, industrial production in June + 8.2% but still distant pre-Covid levels

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07 August 2020In June, exports consolidate its recovery: according to Istat data, it showed a 14.4% increase compared to May. On an annual basis, the contraction is 12.1%. 

In detail, Istat explains, the increase on a monthly basis of exports is due to increases in sales both to non-EU markets (+ 15.6%) and to the EU area (+ 13.3%) . In the second quarter of 2020, despite the growth in May and June, the change compared to the previous quarter remains largely negative for both exports (-24.8%) and imports (-21.8%), due to the sharp drop in April.

As for exports, the annual drop of 12.1% is much lower than in May (-30.4%) and April (-41.5%); the contraction is more marked towards the non-EU area (-15.1%) than in the EU area (-9.2%). The decline in imports is wider (-15.6%) but also in evident reduction (it was -35.2% in May), and is a summary of the drop in purchases from both markets, more refined oil products (-17.9%) compared to the EU area (-13.8%). Refined petroleum products (-62.1%) are among the sectors that contribute most to the downward trend in exports.

On an annual basis, the countries that contribute most to the fall in exports are the United States
(-22.4%), Spain (-21.7%), France (-9.7%), the United Kingdom (-11.2 %) and OPEC countries (-17.1%). Sales to Switzerland (+ 4.7%), Belgium (+ 7.5%) and Japan (+ 8.1%) are increasing.

Istat highlights that the economic recovery, started in May, of exports to both the EU and non-EU outlet markets is consolidating. "All the main groupings of industries contribute to the new rise, but above all the capital goods which alone explain about half of the monthly increase in sales abroad". Imports also recorded a new and marked increase over the month, to which the recovery in purchases from the non-EU market contributed in particular. On an annual basis, the drop in exports is still large but "in progressive and evident attenuation" and is explained by a third of the drop in sales of capital goods.

The drop in purchases of energy and capital goods contributes to the trend decrease in imports, which is clearly downsizing. Import prices show a slight cyclical rise in June; on an annual basis, their decrease eased (-6.5%, from -8.0% in May) mainly due to the price dynamics in the non-euro area. 

In the first six months of the year, the downward trend in exports (-15.3%) is due in particular to the drop in sales of machinery and equipment nec (-20.0%), base metals and metal products excluding machinery and equipment (-14.0%), motor vehicles (-32.0%), leather goods excluding clothing and the like (-28.4%) and means of transport, motor vehicles excluded (-22.0%) In June, Istat also estimates that the trade balance increases by 531 million euros (from +5,701 million in June 2019 to +6,232 million in June 2020). Net of energy products, the balance is equal to +7,761 million euros (it was +8,891 million in June 2019). In June 2020, import prices are estimated to increase by 0.1% on May 2020 and decrease by 6.5% on an annual basis.