What are the possible political implications of the Beirut explosion?

The Beirut explosion, unprecedented in the history of Lebanon, occurred at a time when the ruling class there faced popular anger and resentment over its inability to find solutions to successive crises.

Will the explosion accelerate the overthrow of the government, and give new impetus to the popular movements that limited the outbreak of the Corona epidemic and then accelerate the economic collapse? Or will it have counterproductive results in terms of stabilizing the power mainly backed by Hezbollah?

What is the impact of the explosion on the government?
The government of Hassan Diab Al-Nur was seen early this year, as it includes specialists, but the influence of the parties within it, especially Hezbollah-backed Hezbollah and its ally the Free Patriotic Movement led by President Michel Aoun, quickly became apparent. Files.

It raises the performance of the government, which has not yet succeeded in achieving urgent reforms that the international community and the IMF require in exchange for external support; Popular displeasure.

Foreign Minister Nassif Hatti, a veteran diplomat, submitted this week his resignation because he was unable to carry out his duties and the absence of a real will to reform, he said. He even hinted that there are several references within the government that control its performance. The resignation was a new blow to the government headed by Hassan Diab.

However, the tragedy of the explosion contributed to breaking the isolation of the diplomatic government, whose president has not visited any country since his appointment, as usual, especially the anti-Iranian Gulf. And led to the start of an influx of foreign aid to contribute to overcoming the ordeal of the explosion, which killed 137 people, injured at least 5,000, along with dozens of missing persons and displaced about 300,000 from their homes.

The new foreign minister, Charbel Wehbe, was quick to confirm - in statements to the local Al-Jadeed channel on Thursday - that the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Beirut means that "Lebanon still enjoys the solidarity and sympathy of states."

"In any other country, the government was resigning," the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, Maha Yahya, said after the fallout of the repercussions so disastrous, and Diab confirmed that it resulted from the storage of 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate.

She adds, "The mere existence of an amount of this size of ammonium nitrate stored in the Beirut port without precautionary measures constitutes a criminal negligence."

However, in light of the sharp political polarization and influence struggle in the Middle East, especially between the United States and Iran, the Lebanese government’s godfathers will most likely work to ensure that it does not fall, whatever the cost.

"Despite the public outrage, it is not likely that we will see an immediate resignation of the government at this stage, as long as there is no clear alternative," says researcher and university professor Karim Bitar, especially since government opponents are within the range of accusations made by protesters and have no confidence at all.

Are popular protests renewed?
In the American New York Times, researcher Faisal Itani wrote that "the disaster - with its exceptional severity - is, as usual, in Lebanon as a result of business."

He added that "the culture of neglect, corruption and exchange of blame is rooted in the Lebanese bureaucracy under the supervision of a political class known for its inefficiency and degrading the public interest."

On October 17, a wave of unprecedented massive protests erupted for several months, demanding the departure of all the ruling political class accused of corruption, waste and the inability to find solutions to successive crises.

The demonstrations gradually calmed down after the formation of his government’s diab, and then the spread of the Corona virus began, without the symbolic demand movements in front of the state institutions and the Banque du Liban, to stop. The most recent attempt by demonstrators days before storming the Ministry of Energy to protest against the power cuts long hours.

"The virus has provided a period of rest for power," said Bitar, professor of international relations in Paris and Beirut, but the explosion of the port could "blow the soul back into the revolution."

He expresses his belief that "the Lebanese will be more determined today to hold the political class, corrupt to the core, accountable."

Bitar expects that the second wave of popular protests will be "more severe than the first stage, and will slide towards violence."

Maha Yahya, in turn, sees that if the blast would push the protesters to escalate again under the slogan "Clean means all," then it also "may lead many" to choose the path of exile in search of a new beginning.

What about Hezbollah?
Hezbollah called on the Lebanese and all political forces to "solidarity and unity" to overcome the "painful tragedy." He announced the postponement of the speech of his Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, which was scheduled yesterday evening, Wednesday, without specifying a new date.

"They will also be held accountable because they are an integral part of the ruling system," Maha Yahya says, referring to accusations about the party's influence in managing the port or at least "smuggling through" it.

Hezbollah is a major player and the strongest political party in the country, and its disarmament has long been a contentious address between political forces and a demand for Washington, which is classified as a "terrorist" organization.

Popular anger increased against Hezbollah during the last period, especially the deteriorating economic situation in the country.

Hezbollah faces an important benefit, as the Special Tribunal for Lebanon was supposed to pronounce on Friday the verdict against 4 of the party’s defendants in the case of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, before announcing the adjournment until August 18. The ongoing "out of respect for the victims" of the explosion.

Bitar is likely to raise the ruling, "probably some tensions" between supporters of Hezbollah, which denies any involvement in the assassination and does not recognize the International Court, and supporters of Hariri who have been waiting for 15 years for this moment.