US President Donald Trump said closed opinion polls were showing favorable results for him. He said this in an interview with Fox Business TV company.

“The poll data looks good. Internal survey data is fantastic. The results of the Rasmussen polls have changed for the better. They were very accurate last time. According to the Rasmussen polls, we are leading, ”the president said, adding that a“ surprise ”could be expected in the elections.

According to Rasmussen, which the president spoke about, as of August 5, the number of likely voters who approve of Trump's work is 48%, and 50% do not approve of the US president. At the same time, these indicators are subject to daily slight fluctuations in both directions. 

A July 29 Rasmussen study shows Trump (42%) still lags behind his main rival, Democrat Joe Biden (48%) in popularity.

  • Donald Trump
  • Reuters
  • © Carlos Barria

Other polls also favor Biden. So, according to a sociological study conducted from July 27 to 28 by Reuters in conjunction with IPSOS, Biden is supported by 47% of voters, and Trump is only 38%.

Somewhat more positive results for the current head of state were shown by a poll conducted by the Emerson research service, conducted from July 29 to 30. According to him, among 964 potential voters, 50% of respondents are ready to vote for a Democrat, and 46% for a Republican.

According to analysts, the poll results should not be given too much weight, since in 2016 they also predicted Trump's defeat. In addition, as noted by the director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States at Moscow State University, Yuri Rogulev, Trump may indeed have his own sociological services, which receive slightly different results.

“Trump has a team that studies public opinion, so he may have some data to support his words, but they are not directly related to polls. He probably relies more on closed studies, although he can also refer to the experience of 2016, when all polls testified against him, but he, despite them, won, ”the political scientist said in an interview with RT.

A somewhat different point of view is shared by the corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, Americanist Sergei Sudakov.

“I believe Trump is saying what his supporters want to hear, but the numbers are now showing differently. They show Biden is bypassing Trump. This means that for a significant part of Americans, it makes no difference who to vote for - if only not for a Republican. For many, all his achievements have been canceled out by the pandemic, clashes with the police and the collapse of the economy, ”the analyst said in an interview with RT.

Cohesive ranks

In an interview with Fox Business, Trump also noted that there is a "huge" level of enthusiasm among his supporters. According to him, it is even larger than it was in 2016. At the same time, he called Biden "an unenthusiastic supported candidate" and "a puppet of radical leftists."

According to Yuri Rogulev, Trump's electorate is indeed more united and loyal than Biden's.

“Trump is right, because Biden is not a popular politician who voters will follow. Today he is underwhelmed by young Democrats and the left. Biden remains the only Democratic nominee due to the absence of significant political figures, ”the analyst said.

According to him, subject to economic recovery, the factor of Trump's strong popularity among his supporters can help him win the election.

  • Joe Biden
  • Reuters
  • © Mike Blake

“In the US, the electoral process is primarily influenced by the economy, and only after that - by the mood of society as a whole. Today, the economy and public sentiment are not in favor of Trump. But there is still a lot of time before the elections. If the protest mood begins to decline, the economy grows, incomes recover, then Trump, who has more rallied support, will indeed have a chance to be re-elected, ”the expert said.

"We caught them in espionage"

During the conversation of the head of state with the Fox Business journalist, the conversation also turned to the investigation into the circumstances of the probable surveillance of the Trump election headquarters by the American intelligence services in 2016. Recall that for the first time a Republican accused former President Barack Obama of organizing observation of his election team back in May 2018. According to him, the surveillance could be carried out by the FBI.

Trump called the surveillance established by investigators overwhelming.

“I caught — and we caught — them of spying ... they used the intelligence apparatus of our country to spy on the election headquarters of opponents or the opposite party both before and after the elections. How do you like that - after the elections? I already won then, - said the owner of the White House. “We caught them in espionage, and now it's up to our attorney general.”

He also added that the facts revealed during the investigation "take his breath away."

“I hope all this will see the light soon. But it surpasses any expectations, that is how bad everything is, how bad and unclean. But I will give them the opportunity to do it, and I will not do it myself. A terrible thing has happened, and you cannot allow something like this to happen to another president, ”Trump said.

At the same time, Trump did not answer the question of whether any charges would be brought before the November presidential elections.

Sergei Sudakov believes that Trump, most likely, will not disclose the facts established during the investigation of this case, and the conflict will be resolved through backstage negotiations. 

In turn, Yuri Rogulev believes that this topic will be raised in the media more than once before election day.

“Attorney General William Barr has already said that the source has been identified. Even some information was leaked to the press. All information is adhered to until a convenient moment. This may affect the presidential campaign, but it is unlikely to seriously affect the final vote, ”he said.

At the same time, experts agreed that the outcome of the presidential race was not yet a foregone conclusion and the situation could change both in favor of Trump and Biden. According to Sergei Sudakov, this is due to the fact that a significant part of voters will decide on the final choice immediately before the vote.

“Many Americans do not yet know who they will vote for. Now it is important for Trump to travel around the country, communicate with voters and explain to them why he is better than Biden. Americans watch the performances of "sleepy Joe," as Trump calls him, and understand that a person does not feel well due to age. They can't help but wonder: can he be president? They don't say that about Trump - he shows active activity, "said Sudakov.