European researchers in Britain and France have warned against a second wave of outbreaks of the new Corona virus (Covid-19) infection next winter, stressing at the same time that the worst scenarios can still be avoided.
A study published yesterday showed that Britain is threatened by a second wave of (Covid-19) outbreak next winter, and that it may be twice as strong as the first, if schools reopen without setting a more effective system for examination and tracking.
Researchers from the University College London and the London College of Health and Tropical Medicine have applied a model of the effect of the reopening of schools, in whole or in part, thus allowing parents to return to their work, on the possible spread of the virus.
The researchers concluded that the second wave could be avoided if 75% of those who had symptoms of the disease were reached, examined and tracked 68% of their contacts, or if 87% of those who had symptoms were reached and 40% of their contacts were examined.
The study, published in the Lancet journal for the health of children and adolescents, said: "We also predict that in the absence of extensive coverage based on examination, tracking, and segregation, the reopening of schools as well as the reopening of society may result, in all scenarios, a second wave of coffed -19 ».
The study added: "The results of the model we developed indicate that the complete opening of schools in September 2020 without an effective screening, tracking and isolation strategy will result in a high rate of infection and a second wave of injuries, peaking in December 2020, and being twice as strong as the first wave of Covid-19." .
The chief investigator of the study, Jasmina Banowska-Griffiths, said that the examination and tracking system in England is currently only about 50% of contacts of those who have confirmed the disease.
She told BBC radio that the worst scenarios could still be avoided.
She continued: «The important thing is that we have concluded that it is possible to avoid a second wave of the pandemic if it is possible to diagnose a sufficient number of patients who have symptoms, and can then monitor their contacts and isolation».
In a related context, the French Scientific Council in charge of following up the epidemic (Covid-19), warned that the path of France could "change at any time" towards an accelerated outbreak of the virus, while official figures showed the first rise in the number of patients in intensive care units since last April .
In an assessment prepared for the government, the council warned that "the virus is finally spreading more actively, amid more abandonment of the measures of commitment to social separation and restrictions."
He said, "The balance is fragile and the path can change at any time to a less controlled scenario, for example Spain."
The council warned of the possibility of a "high resurgence of the virus" by the coming fall and winter, after the August summer vacation.
The data released by the French health authorities showed that the number of people receiving treatment in intensive care units has increased by 13 since last Friday, in a reversal of the decline recorded since April, when the French were strictly staying home to stop infection.
29 deaths were recorded, bringing the total death toll nationwide to 30,294.
At the height of the virus outbreak in April, more than 7,100 people were lying in intensive care units in French hospitals with a capacity not to exceed 5,000 beds in intensive care, when the crisis began.
France recorded thousands of new cases last week, prompting some cities or regions to impose local measures, amid reports of citizens disregarding the rules of social estrangement and not being restricted by wearing masks and protective masks.
The Prime Minister, Jean-Castex, called on his countrymen and state departments to "not be indolent" in the battle to combat the emerging Corona virus in order to avoid imposing a general closure again.
"We are seeing an increase in the epidemic data that will lead us to be more vigilant than ever," Castex said.
He added: "I appeal to every Frenchman to remain very vigilant because the fight against the virus depends, of course, on the state, local communities and institutions, but also on each of us."
British researchers: "The current tracking system reaches half of the contacts."
French body: "The virus activates while abandoning measures and restrictions."