Two days after Donald Trump was elected President of the United States, Masha Gessen in the New York Review of Books said he was the first candidate to seek autocracy, not the presidency. Warning added, "Don't be fooled by small signs of normalcy." Now the author - an influential intellectual of Russian origin who wrote Putin's biography - has repeated the warning in her new book Surviving Autocracy : Trump wants to establish an "authoritarian mafia state".

Gessenmag underestimated the resilience and resilience of the American institutions (the Supreme Court, which Trump packed with lawyers from his intellectual entourage, has recently given him several judgments that made him break out in anger). But others also warn of the autocratic instincts of the forty-fifth US president. His - very controversial - former security advisor John Bolton accuses him of his memoirs, which appear in German on August 14th - The space in which everything happened , incompetence and excessive demands; he must not get a second term: his niece Martha Trump does not judge otherwise in her revelation book Too much and never enough ; she calls her uncle "the most dangerous man in the world". In theHe is referred to by the New York Times as an "instinctual fascist, an autochthonist." But the paper reassured his readers: "After almost four years in power, he has proven to be incapable ... The Americans have decided to get rid of him."

Indeed, after the recent development, one would like to give the all-clear. Elections are primarily votes for incumbents, less for opposition candidates. According to this standard, Donald Trump was still sure of his re-election in March. Since then, however, his chances have dropped dramatically. As of today, he is 9 percentage points behind Democrat John Biden in the polls - even in the swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, whose poll voters secured his victory in 2016; even Biden leads in Florida and Texas. The polls show 71 percent angry about the state of the country, 66 percent is anxious, only 17 percent feel pride.

Trump is betting on a booming economy

This is not surprising. Donald Trump is a failed president. He saw himself primarily as a dealmaker, but he has little to show for himself in this field. As a crisis manager, he failed completely, and crisis management in the White House, both internally and externally, is the most important factor.

The coronavirus pandemic was first denied by Trump, then trivialized. He suggested the recommendations of his scientific advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx - in his eyes "alarmists" - into the wind and urged the governors of the federal states to disregard them. Until recently he laughed at the mask and didn't want to let go of infectious political events. He also did not shy away from Dr. Dr. Tweet Stella Immanuel, who announces that witches and demons affect health, raves about astral sex and despises masks. The pitiful result of his Corona policy: 4.7 million infections, 155,000 dead, over 70,000 new infections every day.

The president had hoped to be carried to the Oval Office on the back of a booming, booming economy. But Corona has caused a devastating slump in the economy. Unemployment, prior to the outbreak of the disease at 3.5 percent, was 11.1 percent at the beginning of July and will increase enormously if government support payments expire and insolvencies in the country increase suddenly. Thirty or forty million people have lost their jobs and economic output has declined by 32.9 percent. This means that no flowerpot can be won before elections.