Ahmed Al-Dabbagh - Al-Jazeera Net
After a major push and pull and ten months after the popular protests that demanded the holding of urgent parliamentary elections, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi approved a date for the legislative elections on June 6, 2021.
Al-Kazemi’s decision moved the political scene, but it revealed a number of problems in many of the details that relate to the elections and are still apparently far from being decided.
Challenges
The election file faces security, legal and political challenges. Although the elections were one of the most demanded by the protesters since their popular movement began on the first of last October, the protesters have their opinion.
In Tahrir Square, central Baghdad, where protests are centered, protesters await what Al-Kazemi’s decision will say. Activist Qusai Jassam says that the legislative elections constitute a real opportunity to escape from the political reality he described as “miserable” and an opportunity for young people who represent the aspirations of Iraqis in parliament.
However, the citizen - in his speech to Al Jazeera Net - believes that Al-Kazemi will not fulfill his promises unless the upcoming elections express the aspirations of the Iraqi street, which is still suffering due to the outcome of the previous elections in 2018.
Jassam also confirms that unless the uncontrolled weapon is seized outside the state, and unless the government provides security cover for the demonstrators and imposes the law on everyone, Tahrir Square will not be able to nominate personalities expressed in the elections.
For his part, professor of political science, Dr. Ali Agwan - in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - believes that the upcoming elections are not related to what Al-Kazemi wants, but rather a set of political problems within Parliament, as well as the problems of the Federal Court and the new election law, which Parliament did not vote on all its articles.
He considered that the political conditions in the country are not prepared for the elections in terms of the lack of a census and the uncertainty of the political scene, and that what happened was that Al-Kazemi threw the ball into the parliament’s court in an attempt to fulfill the promises he made in his electoral program.
He concludes by questioning the possibility of holding elections even at their original date in May 2022, especially if these problems remain unresolved, in light of the internal and regional political conflict, as well as the security and represented by a loose weapon.
Legal dilemma There
are differing opinions about the possibility of holding parliamentary elections or not in legal terms, as legal expert Tariq Harb indicates that early parliamentary elections can be held even if the new law was not enacted, as the law adopted in the 2013 elections and its amendments in 2018 does not It is still valid and approves each governorate as one electoral district.
As for the Federal Court and its quorum is broken after one of its members was referred to retirement months ago, War reveals that the Federal Supreme Court Law No. (30) for the year 2005 requires amending Parliament (by simple majority) for its third article only, in order to be able to appoint a new member and activate the court again , And not necessarily enacting a new court law requiring a vote of two-thirds of members of Parliament.
However, the legal expert believes that the problem does not lie in the law or the election commission as much as it relates to the political blocs that secretly refuse to hold the elections for fear of losing the privileges they currently enjoy, stressing that the participation of 75% of the voters will mean that the majority of the current political blocs will not get parliamentary seats once Other.
On the other side, the decision of the Parliamentary Legal Committee, Yahya al-Muhammadi, enumerates several conditions for conducting elections, including that the Federal Court is responsible for ratifying the election results constitutionally, and therefore Parliament must amend the court law or legislate a new law.
On the electoral law, Al-Mohammadi assures Al-Jazeera Net that Parliament will proceed to complete the legislation of all articles of the new law and the adoption of multiple districts shortly after Eid Al-Adha, and then send it to the Presidency of the Republic for approval and approval, and this is what the Iraqi street requires.
Rashid Al-Azzawi, a member of the Parliamentary Legal Committee and Secretary General of the Islamic Party, also indicates that his party does not see a problem in the election law, whether it is multi-constituency for each governorate or one constituency, although he prefers a single constituency.
He considered that the problem that will face the holding of the elections is the lost electronic voter cards, which number hundreds of thousands, issued by the High Electoral Commission, as it confirms that parties can use them to rig elections and divert their course.
He adds - in his speech to Al Jazeera Net - that the elections will not be fair if the reliability of these cards is not canceled, and that the best solution is to complete the issuance of biometric cards (depends on the fingerprints of the hand and the eye) as well as expedite the updating of the voter records in many governorates that have not completed 50% of Its records so far.
The security dilemma has
many problems that hinder the holding of early legislative elections, as it seems that the road ahead will not be paved with flowers.
Member of the Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, Reem Kamal Khorshid, for his part, says that the security situation in the country's governorates is relatively good, and that the dilemma lies in the Electoral Commission and its funding, as well as ensuring that the government does not rig it.
Khorshid revealed to Al-Jazeera Net that Al-Kazemi had previously stated that weapons outside the framework of the state will not allow the elections to be free and fair, and therefore the transparency of the elections cannot be guaranteed without the presence of international monitoring.
The Iraqis fear that the upcoming elections will be similar to the ones that came with the government of Adel Abdul Mahdi, as the street believes that the political blocs that rolled over the parliament will not overlook their privileges and quotas, and therefore the upcoming elections are considered by Iraqis as the last hope to revive the political process.
Conditions
Other conditions Those added by the High Electoral Commission in its statement last Saturday, in which it indicated its willingness to hold early elections on the sixth of next June, provided that the new election law legislation is completed and published in the government fact sheet to adopt it.
As stated in the text of the Commission’s statement - which Al Jazeera has seen - that Parliament should expedite the enactment of an alternative text for Article (3) of Diwaniya Order No. (30) for the year 2005 to complete the quorum of the Federal Supreme Court, which is the only authorized body that has the right to ratify the results of any elections.
The commission also stipulated that the government prepare the electoral financial budget and provide the requirements from the relevant ministries, which are a prerequisite for holding the elections on the scheduled date.
It is a set of security, legal and political challenges, to which the economic crisis is added and the failure to approve the budget for the current year from which seven months have passed, which may make achieving the requirements of the Financial Election Commission an extremely difficult matter.