Who to accompany Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket? The question has animated the American political microcosm for several weeks now. And while the Democratic presidential candidate, to be held on November 3, has scheduled an announcement for the first week of August, the mystery remains unresolved.

The only certainty: it will be a woman. This is what Joe Biden, also in a hurry, since the explosion of the Black Lives Matter movement, promised to choose a black candidate. Several names are regularly cited by the American media: California Senator Kamala Harris, Barack Obama's former National Security Advisor Susan Rice, California Representative Karen Bass, Florida Representative Val Demings, Mayor Atlanta Keisha Lance Bottoms - all black - but also California Senator Elizabeth Warren and Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth.

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The choice of running mate is always the result of electoral calculations. Most often, the latter has a profile that complements that of the candidate for the White House. A candidate from a state in the northern United States will tend to choose a running mate from the south of the country: John Kennedy, who came from Massachusetts, had for example chosen the senator of Texas Lyndon Johnson as vice-president in 1960. A young candidate will tend to choose an experienced running mate by his side: this is how the young senator from Illinois Barack Obama opted in 2008 for the then senator from Delaware, Joe Biden. A candidate located outside the establishment will tend to favor a person who will reassure the faithful of his party: this is exactly what Donald Trump did in 2016 by completing the Republican ticket with the governor of the 'Indiana then, Mike Pence. Finally, the announcement can also help give a boost to a campaign that is skating: this is the role played by Alaska Governor Sarah Palin when she was chosen by John McCain in 2008.

But this year, the Covid-19 pandemic, the economic recession, the unpopularity of Donald Trump, the 77-year-old Joe Biden, the promise to choose a woman, the importance of the Black Lives Matter movement and the ratings of the candidates of the Democratic primary very marked on the left, like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, within the youth make the selection of the future running mate particularly thorny.

A candidate ready "from day one"

Three months before the presidential election, Joe Biden is so high in the polls - 8 points difference on average with Donald Trump - that his announcement is likely to serve him. The identity of the future candidate, who would become the first female vice-president in United States history if she wins, will certainly be disappointed with some Democrats, while she will offer Donald angles of attack. Trump and his team, who have so far struggled to discredit Barack Obama's former vice president.

The dilemma is first and foremost political: if Joe Biden chooses a candidate like Elizabeth Warren to make an alliance with the left wing of his party, he risks losing the more moderate Republican voters who could hesitate between him and Donald Trump. Above all, the American president would not fail to portray the Democratic ticket as a socialist, even communist threat, which would make the United States take a wrong turn; and if, on the contrary, Joe Biden prefers a candidate closer to him politically like Susan Rice, he can demobilize a youth with much more radical positions.

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The other difficulty for Joe Biden is much more personal. The former vice president knows he would become, at 77, the oldest president-elect in U.S. history and has already voiced the idea of ​​serving just one term. Having at his side a running mate ready "from the first day" to take over is therefore one of his priority selection criteria - the vice-president being required, according to the Constitution, to succeed the president if the latter dies or resigns. But at the same time, his partner will not have to spend most of his time preparing for his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election.

In the end, therefore, it is confidence that will be a key element, according to a close friend of Joe Biden, quoted by Politico. Joe Biden would like to find a candidate with whom he could have the same relationship that Barack Obama had with him: a person capable of being in the shadows, of giving him sound advice while agreeing to put his political interests behind those of His boss.

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