The administration of President Donald Trump has indicated that it may reconsider the number of US forces, in NATO, when it threatened to remove those forces from Germany to send, perhaps, to Poland. While it appears that the "Congress" has obstructed this move, this alliance's debate over troop levels and participation will not disappear. Since Trump took office, the level of complaints has risen, due to the continual failure of European NATO allies to meet their obligations under the 2014 agreement to spend at least 2% of gross domestic product on their defense budgets, by 2021. Germany, for example Only 1.3% of GDP was spent on defense, and it was not committed to achieving the annual goal (2%), until 2031.
Traditional Atlanticists denounce Trump's sharp tone, and many believe that the current US military levels, in "NATO", must remain constant to help maintain stability in the Atlantic Alliance. German Chancellor Angela Merkel bluntly hinted that Washington’s drive could push Europe toward a new kind of neutrality. “I can say that we Europeans must take our destiny into our own hands, of course while preserving the friendship of the United States and Great Britain, as good neighbors. "Wherever possible, also, with other countries, even with Russia."
Some Democratic parties go as far as to claim that the administration wants to withdraw from NATO, thanking Russia for the alleged assistance to elect Trump as president. Examples provided as evidence include Trump's repeated praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin, a temporary freeze on Ukraine's aid, reducing the presence of US forces in Syria, and Trump's recent invitation to Russia to join the Group of Seven industrial summit (along with Australia, India and South Korea). Finally, the administration failed to pressure Russia on the issue of paying rewards to the "Taliban" movement, in order to kill American forces in Afghanistan.
While the rhetoric from Washington, by pressuring the allies, may be more intense than in the past, the fact is that the Trump administration has taken strong stances, too, against Russia and in support of NATO, which far exceeds any kind of nice words from Trump about Putin.
Intense threats
The United States has abolished the Intermediate Nuclear Weapons Treaty, with Russia, and has announced its intention to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty. Washington also threatened not to extend the new strategic arms reduction treaty agreement with Russia, unless China also joined the treaty, and Russia agreed to strengthen verification mechanisms.
In addition, Trump threatened to resume nuclear tests and called for the development of new nuclear warheads and capabilities, which could ignite a nuclear arms race with Russia. The administration continues to refuse to limit missile defenses, a capability Russia strongly opposes as destabilizing.
Since Trump's election, the United States has imposed a continuous series of sanctions against Russia. During his first month in office, the US president imposed sanctions on Russia's annexation of the Crimea. Since then, he has imposed sanctions on Putin's wealthy Russian friends, imposed sanctions on election interference, and restrictions on Russia's energy and defense industries. And earlier this year, the United States again imposed more sanctions. This time against Russian-backed individuals in the Crimea.
Moreover, it was Trump who ordered the closure of Russian diplomatic headquarters in New York, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, DC. He also expelled 60 Russian diplomats from the United States, after a Russian nerve agent was killed in Britain.
Besides confronting Russia directly with sanctions and retreating from nuclear disarmament, the United States continued to show tangible support for NATO and Europe. In 2018, Washington signed a $ 4.75 billion deal with Poland, while expanding the deployment of the Patriot missile defense systems, in the face of Russia. In the same year, America deployed an armored corps, as part of the enhanced NATO presence program, including a US-led "combat group" of the alliance. Now, the White House administration has announced plans to move US forces from Germany to Poland, to be closer to Russia. US Marines landed in Norway as part of NATO exercises.
On Ukraine, which is not a NATO ally, the Trump administration has provided nearly half a billion dollars in military aid, including "Javelin" anti-tank missiles, something the Obama administration has always refused to do. The administration also allowed Ukraine to transport this equipment to its front lines in Donbas, which is fighting Russian-backed separatists. Washington continues to outpace its allies, NATO and Europe, to support Ukraine in the face of Russian pressure, which represents 90% of all military aid to Ukraine, not to mention that Washington continues to play the major role in NATO.
Burden sharing
The truth is that the administration of the White House does not submit to Russia or let NATO down, and all it does is ask its allies to do more, reflecting the tremendous growth in Europe, in wealth and prosperity since the end of World War II, especially with the rise of China, more Burden-sharing in Europe is becoming evident. Japan has responded to this call, and has significantly increased its military capabilities in recent years. The United States is no longer able to act as the sole dominant military power in the world.
And, as Japan really understands and does, European allies must share the burdens, and make more money to help maintain global stability, especially in their backyard. But these arguments, which call for more participation by European allies, are well known and understood.
There is a new imperative to restore balance in Europe, and it is a more urgent deal, as cyberspace, drones, space invasion and high-precision missiles are all mechanisms that modernize the war. And the advanced operating bases of the United States present in NATO will be more vulnerable to the first strikes by these systems, contrary to what was known in the past. Within a few minutes or even seconds, Russia could launch sudden barrages of missiles and drone attacks at every US base and headquarters in Europe. Besides cyberspace, even real space, the greatest threat may not be from tanks, but new weapons systems, such as Russia's “Avangard”, a vehicle said to be able to travel at speeds much higher than the speed of sound, towards any US forward base in Europe.
And armies must prepare for a more hostile future. If not, American forces currently stationed in Europe are at risk of switching to the "Maginot" line (after the end of World War I, France adopted a negative defense strategy by establishing the line, which is a model of fixed defensive fortifications), in the face of a new type of flash war .
Ramon Marx is a retired international lawyer in New York
The truth is that the administration of the White House does not submit to Russia or let NATO down, and all it does is ask its allies to do more, reflecting the tremendous growth in Europe, in wealth and prosperity since the end of World War II, especially with the rise of China, more Burden-sharing in Europe is becoming evident.