The Southern Transitional Council - UAE-backed - announced its retreat from the decision to self-manage the southern governorates, after 3 months of taking this step, while Saudi Arabia said that the legitimate and transitional government agreed on a new mechanism to implement the Riyadh agreement, where a new government is formed with the participation of the transitional, And the appointment of the governor of Aden from his leaders.

These new developments opened the door for observers' questions about the chances of success of this agreement, and the possibility of the return of the legitimate government to Yemen, and does the transition’s abandonment of self-administration also represent the end of the separation project that it is demanding?

Chances of success The
adviser to the Minister of Information in the legitimate government, Mukhtar al-Rahbi, shows his lack of optimism about the success of the announced agreement, and justifies this by the many experiences with the transitional council, which ended in failure, most notably the Riyadh Basic Agreement.

According to Al-Rahbi, "During the past few days, the legitimate government was pressured by the coalition to start implementing the political part and delay the military one, and that is the essence of the problem in Aden."

Al-Rahbi added in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net that "Aden does not suffer from a political vacuum, and there are governor and government institutions, but they were suspended by the transitional, and we now have to deal cautiously with such an agreement, and consider whether the militia will be withdrawn, surrender weapons, and return the looted money, And hand over the governorate of Socotra in the coming days. "

On this agreement, and the political victory it represents for the transitional - as some have described it - an official government source says to Al Jazeera Net, "It may seem like this, but at the same time it is the closest solution to dealing with the status quo, which may contribute to stopping the tension and conflict, and the wave of violence that About to explode in most southern provinces. "

The government official attributes the possibility of the success of the new mechanism of the agreement - which was sponsored by Saudi Arabia - to the seriousness of the southern transitional in going towards resolving the crisis during the coming days, after the Prime Minister distributes the ministerial portfolios, according to the mandate entrusted to him by a presidential decision.

The return of the government
Regarding the return of the legitimate government to Aden, the government source says that this matter was stressed by the Riyadh Basic Agreement, but the agreement in its final form did not address it, but it is likely that the prime minister will return to Aden with the ministers who will be appointed within a month from now, and not members. The current government has been charged with conducting business during this period.

This is also confirmed by Yasser Al-Yafei, a journalist close to the transitional council, by saying, "The return of the consensual government that will be announced to Aden is possible, and the chances of its success are great, to contribute to managing the liberated governorates and alleviating the suffering of its citizens." He pointed out that the Riyadh agreement and its new implementation mechanism contributed to the transitional acceptance of the government's return to Aden.

Al-Yafi 'reinforces - in his conversation with Al-Jazeera - what some see that the agreement brought the transitional party closer to achieving its distant goal, which is its presence as a legitimate component within the government; He says, "Whoever talks about the agreement means that the council will retract from achieving the goals of its case of restoring the decision in the south is absolutely incorrect."

"The Transitional Council has not retreated from its goals of restoring the southern state. Rather, it has become closer to implementing this by working on its political program from within the government itself, and with new mechanisms," he added.

He believes that the transitional acceptance of the implementation of the Riyadh agreement comes in appreciation of the coalition's efforts to unite efforts and fight the Houthi project, and to postpone talking about the future of the south until the end of the war with the Houthi group, and then to enter into a comprehensive dialogue that guarantees the transitional participation in it and the presentation of its political project in this dialogue.

Will the integration of the transitional government in the legitimate government reinforce or end his efforts to secede the south? (Al Jazeera)


New obstacles

Military expert Dr. Ali al-Dahab believes that "the chances of success of this agreement are slim, because each party has a private agenda that conflicts with the other's."

Al-Dahab sees - in his talk to Al-Jazeera Net - that the agreement in its final form gives the transitional council a powerful authority in Aden, and puts the life of President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi and any government coming at the mercy of the transitional council, of course, the far goal of the transitional is to achieve victory, and not only participate in the government .

He believes that the new government formation may produce new political alliances that eliminate the agreement, and frustrate and undermine the performance of the government, while Socotra remains the knot in the saw, and it is not yet known whether positions will be shared then influence between the internal and external parties, or will it be put Things are in a potentially explosive position again.

Bias for transition and
in the same direction, Professor of Political Science Faisal Al-Hudhaifi says that the Riyadh agreement was formulated with the aim of integrating the transitional authority in the legitimate authority and the government, and looking at it as a team within the legitimacy, and not as a coup against it, and that is Riyadh's view regarding the transitional location, which has become Saudi Arabia and the UAE He clearly biased him, through financial and military support, protection, and political empowerment.

The two countries aim, according to Al-Hudhaifi, for the transitional forces to become their military arm on the ground to impose their decision on Yemen, to compel the legitimacy to respond and sign any decisions that the two countries want from the legitimate president Hadi, and to wave to dispense with him if she feels restless about it.