Johnson wants Trump to lose the election? Anglo-American relations are not that strong

  All signs indicate that the Johnson administration is exploring ways to continue to follow the United States in geopolitics and gradually break up with Trump's unilateralism in economic affairs.

  According to a report by the British "Sunday Times" on July 26, an internal report of the British government showed that although Johnson appeared as an ally of Trump in public, privately, he and his government tried to distance themselves from Trump. .

  According to the report, a member of Johnson's cabinet told the Sunday Times that many government members believed that if Trump lost the election, many things would go well. A senior Conservative Party adviser revealed that the assumption that many government members currently agree with is that once Biden wins the election, he will no longer need to sign a separate Anglo-US trade agreement. A senior British official in charge of international trade was told by the Johnson administration during a recent visit to Washington that he should keep a low profile and cautious about the prospect of a trade agreement.

  Although these inner words of Johnson government officials do not currently represent the adjustment of British policy, it is clear that the so-called "UK-US special relationship" is not so strong on the surface, but has fallen into an embarrassing situation of inconsistency.

  It's not cost-effective to dance with the Trump administration

  In fact, it is not surprising that officials in the Johnson administration evaluated relations with the United States in this way. Although compared with the previous Teresa May administration, the Johnson administration is closer to the United States, but it did not gain more substantial benefits.

  Taking 5G as an example, the Trump administration’s forcing the United Kingdom to change its attitude towards Huawei is considered one of the reasons why the Johnson administration’s resentment towards the United States has risen. Because Huawei has been working in the British telecommunications market for 20 years, it will take at least 10 years to remove Huawei equipment from British telecommunications facilities. This may result in an uncertain security risk for the services of 24 million British Telecom users.

  More importantly, rejecting Huawei may leave the UK behind in the 5G field for a considerable period of time, and 5G technology is the basic technology for the next round of industrial revolution, which will cause the competitiveness of British industry to fall behind in the future.

  At present, the British economy is experiencing its worst performance in 300 years, while the fiscal deficit has hit a new high since the peace era. Britain urgently needs a stable export market and revitalized industries to stop the economic downturn.

  Following the United States, apart from an Anglo-American free trade agreement, nothing else. The Anglo-U.S. Free Trade Agreement only increased Britain’s reliance on the U.S. market and its signing was delayed. For the British economy, it is neither emergency nor full of potential risks. This gain and loss should not be difficult to calculate.

  Avoid side bets on the U.S. general menu

  If the news leaked by Johnson administration officials to the British media does not involve internal political disputes, it would have another meaning: to show the outside world that it is not prepared to bet on the US general election.

  Since Johnson became British Prime Minister, whether it is his personal personality, his handling of the epidemic, or his decision-making on international affairs, he has left a strong impression on the outside world in keeping with Trump. This impression was reflected in the U.S. election, which is a unilateral bet.

  At the same time, Trump's series of tricks to divert internal conflicts and maintain the votes of middle and low-level whites have almost exhausted. Whether starting from Anglo-American relations or considering Johnson's political future, the situation in the US election no longer allows him to bet unilaterally.

  Adaptive response after Brexit

  Of course, it is not because Johnson administration officials are dissatisfied with the Trump administration that there will be a major change in the relationship between Britain and the United States.

  All signs indicate that the Johnson administration is exploring ways to continue to follow the United States in geopolitics and gradually break up with Trump's unilateralism in economic affairs.

  According to this internal government document, the assumption that many members of the Johnson administration agree with is that once Biden wins the election, there is no longer a need to sign a separate Anglo-US trade agreement, because a multilateral trade arrangement including the United Kingdom and the United States may appear such as "comprehensive And Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP).

  Joining the CPTPP is something the Johnson administration began to emphasize in June. This obviously intends to expand the export market after Brexit by joining multilateral negotiations. The CPTPP is a product of Trump's abolition of TPP. Britain's desire to join the CPTPP is tantamount to saying "no" to Trump's unilateralism. But at the same time, the United Kingdom is still in sync with the United States on geopolitical issues involving Hong Kong, the South China Sea, Turkey, and Libya.

  The economic affairs solo and the geopolitical chorus are essentially an adaptive response to the new international market pattern and geopolitics after Brexit. The Johnson administration also needs time to evaluate and adjust the domestic and international roles it will play in the future. The change in the evaluation of the Trump administration is essentially part of the adjustment. The same is true for not cherishing the "golden age" of China and Britain. To be sure, in this dynamic adjustment process, the UK will inevitably regard speculation as an important strategy and apply it everywhere.

  □Xu Qin (Columnist)